Very early Big Ten Preview (2010-11):


#1

Okay, here’s the format: I have each team listed in a projected B10 finish (regular season, not tournament). I listed each player the school has lost (graduate, transfer, or NBA draft), percent of scoring the school is losing, signed recruits plus their ESPN grade for the 2010 class, and a +/- number on how many spots the team can realistically fluctuate.

-Recruits and their grade is as of today, May 9th per ESPN.
-Draft status is based on Rival’s list: http://collegebasketball.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1069126
-Transfers are based on Goodman’s first transfer list: http://community.foxsports.com/goodmanonfox/blog/2010/04/14/first_edition_of_end-of-year_transfer_list

I tried to rank the teams mostly off of numbers and less personal feelings; however I did take into account injuries (Hummel, Coble), Senior classes (PSU), new coaching, etc.

Big 10 Preview-

purdue:
grant
kramer
wohlford
20%

92, 92, 91, 90
+/- 1

michigan state:
crandell
dahlman
morgan
herzog
19%

95, 95, 94, 90
+/- 1

ohio state:
hill
madsen
peters
simmons
titus
turner
42%

98, 96, 94, 94, 92, 91
+/- 2

illinois:
chisholm
keller
simpson
8%

95, 95, 94
+/- 1

wisconsin:
bohannon
hughes
40%

93, 90, 89, 89
+/- 2

northwestern:
nash
ryan
steger
rowley
16%

88
+/- 1

Penn State:
babb
edwards
highberger
ott
28%

93, 86
+/- 2

minnesota:
bostick
johnson
westbrook
carter
44%

92, 89, 87, 87
+/- 2

indiana:
dumes
gambles
jobe

11%

90, 89
+/- 2

Michigan:
gibson
sims
harris
60%

94, 93, 88
+/- 2

Iowa:
bawinkel
fuller
lickliter
24%

89, 89, 87
+/- 0

Summary: Purdue will return Hummel, Johnson and Moore. Arguable one of the best 3 headed monsters in the country. Purdue will be ranked Top 5 pre-season. MSU and OSU have outside shots at taking the #1 spot in the B10, but its unlikely. OSU loses Turner but they have a stellar recruiting class. They can finish 2nd or drop to 4th. Michigan State really only loses Morgan from a Final 4 team. They will finish 2nd or 3rd.

Illinois and Wisconsin are fighting for 4th and 5th. Illinois loses virtually nothing, while a better Wisconsin team loses Hughes and Bohannon. Illinois will likely finish ahead of Wisconsin.

Northwestern, Penn State and Minnesota are fighting for the next three spots. Northwestern and Penn State will fight for the 6th and 7th spots. Northwestern returns most of the team plus Coble. Penn State lost 2 players to transfer but has a heavy senior class. Minnesota lost almost half of their scoring, they will probably finish 7th or 8th.

Indiana, Michigan and Iowa will shape up the bottom of the B10. Michigan loses a lot of talent from a mediocre-at-best 2009-10 squad. Iowa has a new coach in McCaffrey. Indiana looks the be the most stable of these three teams. I don’t think Iowa has enough talent this season to fight its way out of the basement. Indiana is a tough team that will probably finish ahead of these other two cellar dwellers.

===================

If I missed any players that aren’t actually leaving (Coble was listed as a Senior on ESPN but he got a medical year) or missed a player or two that is leaving, please let me know. But for the most part, the scoring % numbers are pretty accurate (within a percentage point or two).

http://thebracketman.blogspot.com/2010/05/very-early-big-ten-preview-2010-11.html


#2

On Iowa you missed the old coaches son.


#3

Thanks. He averaged 1.9 PPG. Iowa’s scoring lost went up from 21% to 24%.


#4

I know he didn’t matter much. I guess I should have used a :stuck_out_tongue:


#5

Did he transfer? Or just decide not to play anymore? Goodman didn’t have him on his list (which was what I was working off of). I had remember hearing about this a few months ago, I had just forgotten though.


#6

I thought he transferred to a Division 3 school.


#7

You also forgot about red-shirts.

I know Wiscy is famous for redshirting their bigs, who usually put in very good seasons.


#8

PSU also lost Ott and Highberger…both were scholarship players so I think you’d want to include them


#9

Lickliter transfered to Marian University…NAIA D-2 in Indianapolis.


#10

How embarrassing… haha. I breezed through this and I forgot 2 players from PSU lol


#11

Thanks noodb, for ther BigTen11 summary. Should be an interesting season.


#12

Here’s another perspective

PSU coming in 9th


#13

Iowa lost Aaron Fuller. He transferred to USC. Michigan State lost Tom Herzog. He transferred to Central Florida


#14

Thanks. I have Fuller but I’ll add Herzog to the list.

Goodman’s transfer list is almost a month old, so a few might have slipped through the cracks. I believe he’ll update his list at least one more time before the season starts.

Herzog averaged 1.3 PPG. So the % increase is only a few (1-3%).

[quote=“Finding Forrester, post:12, topic:1152”]Here’s another perspective

PSU coming in 9th[/quote]

Good find. Pretty similar to mine, but I tinted my glasses a shade of B&W and put PSU ahead of Minnesota and Indiana. PSU was able to play right with Minnesota last season and Minnesota lost a lot more than PSU. I also believe the loss against Indiana was a fluke. Indiana will be tough though, they will give PSU and Minnesota runs for their money.


#15

I hope you’re noobd. Finishing 7th would most likely put us right on the bubble, depending on the non-conference schedule.


#16

Maybe. Last season 7th was Northwestern who wasn’t on the bubble. The year before it was Minnesota who made the tournament (over PSU who finished 4th). One can argue that Minnesota didn’t deserve a bid. A lot depends on quality wins and the OOC.

Ole Miss, VT, B10/ACC Challenge and Fairfield are all must wins… at 3 minimum if PSU is going to even think about the tournament. It also means they can’t lose to the Tulane’s and UNCW’s of the world.

I’ll take 7th over the cellar any day of the week, though.


#17

NWstern didn’t make it becasue they lost both games to us.

The one huge positive we have going for us is that we can’t lose to us !!! :smiley: :wink:


#18

[quote=“Skeeza, post:17, topic:1152”]NWstern didn’t make it becasue they lost both games to us.

The one huge positive we have going for us is that we can’t lose to us !!! :smiley: ;)[/quote]

Northwestern didn’t make it because they were well below .500 in the league and had an RPI in the 100s. They weren’t even close to being on the bubble.


#19

[quote=“Skeeza, post:17, topic:1152”]NWstern didn’t make it becasue they lost both games to us.

The one huge positive we have going for us is that we can’t lose to us !!! :smiley: ;)[/quote]

2 wins against PSU and they are a fringe bubble team and still out. :stuck_out_tongue:


#20
NWstern didn't make it becasue they lost both games to us.

The one huge positive we have going for us is that we can’t lose to us !!! :smiley: :wink:

Northwestern didn’t make it because they were well below .500 in the league and had an RPI in the 100s. They weren’t even close to being on the bubble.

…here you go again, Lar. ::slight_smile:

Northwestern was 7-11 in conference. If those 2 Penn State losses turn into wins, they are 9-9 in conference.

comprende?