OK, Lar, is Calhoun right – do early defections to the pros hurt your APR? I thought it was meant to judge you on progress to a degree.
You can create an argument that they do, particularly the way that Calhoun phrased his response.
What he said was “when you have 16 kids leave [for the pros] in a 10-year period, you are more likely to be more open to [a low APR] happening.” That is technically correct.
Leaving early in and unto itself doesn’t hurt you but it does make you more vulnerable to others screwing up. I’m headed out and will provide the details later (if someone else doesn’t in the meantime).
Here’s the details -
The APR is basically a simple calculation. But, it is a rolling four year average, like the Federal graduation rate, like the Graduation Success Rate, and like UncleLar’s infamous numbers. I suppose that will cause it to be ridiculed by some here, since, for some absurd reason, they don’t seem to accept the concept of rolling averages.
Any athlete that is on an athletic scholarship participates in the calculation. Said athlete earns points in one of two ways - an eligibility point for being eligible at the end of a term/semester and a retention point for returning the following semester. A team’s total points earned are divided by the total points possible (technically it’s also multiplied by 1000 - a 925 APR is actually .925 when you do the math).
If all goes according to plan, every scholarship athlete will earn four points out of four possible points. A point for being being eligible at the end of fall semester, a point for returning for spring semester, a point for being eligible at the end of the spring semester, and a point for returning in the following fall (a player who graduates in a semester automatically earns the two points).
A kid who departs early for the NBA however will not earn four points. They will either earn three points if they passed enough courses to keep their eligibility or two points if they didn’t. Hopefully, most of them at least keep their options open and go to enough classes so that, should they choose to return, that option would be open to them. However, I suspect that many one and done’s don’t even bother to go to class, so they would only earn two out of four possible points.
So, for basketball, if you have 13 guys on scholarship, then you would normally have the potential for earning 52 points in a year. If you lose three guys every year (be it to transfer or an early departure to go to the NBA), as long as they were eligible when they left, your APR would still be 942 (49/52), well above the 925 number where you become eligible for penalties. You have to either average losing four guys every year or have guys become ineligible to fall below the 925 number.
Plus, there’s an out to the penalty phase that says you can’t lose a scholarship unless you have someone who has left school AND was ineligible. So even if you were some superpower school that brought in 13 one and done’s every year, as long as the kids kept going to class and were eligible at the end of the spring, you wouldn’t lose any ships even though your APR would only be 750.
So while Calhoun is technically correct in what he says (although the 16 in 10 is irrelevant - only the last four years count), he still has to have a fair number of kids not go to class and become ineligible to fall below 925 and thus lose scholarships.