PennStateHoops.com Discussion Forum

To foul or not to foul


#1

We seem to discuss this every year. Here’s a study on it.

http://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2010/08/24/intentionally-fouling-up-3-points-the-first-comprehensive-cbb-analysis/


#2

[quote=“pmhewitt, post:1, topic:1317”]We seem to discuss this every year. Here’s a study on it.

http://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2010/08/24/intentionally-fouling-up-3-points-the-first-comprehensive-cbb-analysis/[/quote]

It’s nice to finally see some empirical data - and even nicer to see that it really doesn’t make a difference. I’ve always been in the camp that says don’t foul, more so because I’d rather see the game decided by the kids’ play on the floor and not by end of game concocted free three exhibitions than because I thought the chance of winning was better by not fouling. I’ve never quite bought into the Scott/Rokk/William rationale that it’s a no brainer decision to foul. Now there’s evidence for just letting the kids play.


#3

I never liked the intentional-non intentional “fouling” situation. It always seemed funny to me to hear 4 coaches screaming at their player to " FOUL…FOUL…"
But, the “foul” is then non deemed “intentional” ???


#4

[quote=“tundra, post:3, topic:1317”]I never liked the intentional-non intentional “fouling” situation. It always seemed funny to me to hear 4 coaches screaming at their player to " FOUL…FOUL…"
But, the “foul” is then non deemed “intentional” ???[/quote]

The more that I think about this issue…the angrier I get. It “used to be” players had to attempt to make the foul look non-intentional. That does not seem to be the case much anymore. Players just bearhug the other player with no effort to play the ball and the refs still call NON-intentional. To me, this “cheapens” the game. Rules are made for a reason…and refs should attempt to enforce the rules. Refs are “changing” the intent of the game…WHY…you be the judge…


#5

Good find, hewey, back with a vengeance. :wink: I’d like to see stats on FTA’s vs percentage of shooting them. Maybe anecdotal, but MSU was worst shooting in Big 10 last year, but shot most FTA’s. While of course missing didn’t help, getting there did. PSU had and edge over their opponents in shooting FTA’s last year, but their edge was way down. These numbers are startling. PSU played 7 more games in '08/09, yet gave up more FTA’s this year.
FTA’s PSU opponent
’08/09 691-478
’09/10 542-482


#6

[quote=“kidcoyote, post:5, topic:1317”]Good find, hewey, back with a vengeance. :wink: I’d like to see stats on FTA’s vs percentage of shooting them. Maybe anecdotal, but MSU was worst shooting in Big 10 last year, but shot most FTA’s. While of course missing didn’t help, getting there did. PSU had and edge over their opponents in shooting FTA’s last year, but their edge was way down. These numbers are startling. PSU played 7 more games in '08/09, yet gave up more FTA’s this year.
FTA’s PSU opponent
’08/09 691-478
’09/10 542-482[/quote]

Are you suggesting that we fouled our opponents too much this past season?


#7

[quote=“kidcoyote, post:5, topic:1317”]Good find, hewey, back with a vengeance. :wink: I’d like to see stats on FTA’s vs percentage of shooting them. Maybe anecdotal, but MSU was worst shooting in Big 10 last year, but shot most FTA’s. While of course missing didn’t help, getting there did. PSU had and edge over their opponents in shooting FTA’s last year, but their edge was way down. These numbers are startling. PSU played 7 more games in '08/09, yet gave up more FTA’s this year.
FTA’s PSU opponent
’08/09 691-478
’09/10 542-482[/quote]

Took me a couple of seconds to figure out your “stat.”…but, I like it and I ,in general, think it is “telling.” But, a game by game breakdown would be better. or
how about “BigTen play” only?
I would think , maybe, PSU built their FTA positive margin against some VERY small and VERY weak out-of-conference foes.


#8
[quote="kidcoyote, post:5, topic:1317"]Good find, hewey, back with a vengeance. ;) I'd like to see stats on FTA's vs percentage of shooting them. Maybe anecdotal, but MSU was worst shooting in Big 10 last year, but shot most FTA's. While of course missing didn't help, getting there did. PSU had and edge over their opponents in shooting FTA's last year, but their edge was way down. These numbers are startling. PSU played 7 more games in '08/09, yet gave up more FTA's this year. FTA's PSU opponent '08/09 691-478 '09/10 542-482[/quote]

Took me a couple of seconds to figure out your “stat.”…but, I like it and I ,in general, think it is “telling.” But, a game by game breakdown would be better. or
how about “BigTen play” only?
I would think , maybe, PSU built their FTA positive margin against some VERY small and VERY weak out-of-conference foes.

I’m still trying to figure out what “tale” people think this is telling.


#9
[quote="kidcoyote, post:5, topic:1317"]Good find, hewey, back with a vengeance. ;) I'd like to see stats on FTA's vs percentage of shooting them. Maybe anecdotal, but MSU was worst shooting in Big 10 last year, but shot most FTA's. While of course missing didn't help, getting there did. PSU had and edge over their opponents in shooting FTA's last year, but their edge was way down. These numbers are startling. PSU played 7 more games in '08/09, yet gave up more FTA's this year. FTA's PSU opponent '08/09 691-478 '09/10 542-482[/quote]

Took me a couple of seconds to figure out your “stat.”…but, I like it and I ,in general, think it is “telling.” But, a game by game breakdown would be better. or how about “BigTen play” only?
I would think , maybe, PSU built their FTA positive margin against some VERY small and VERY weak out-of-conference foes.

Good question, and it’s telling. They only count the regular season 18 games when they show conference stats.

FTA’s PSU opponent Big 10 only
’08/09 285-240
’09/10 282-306

A delta yoy of 69 in 18 games. At 70% shooting, that’s ~48 points or an extra 2.7 ppg. Getting more shots is what wins games, not necessarily making them. 70% is good enough. Shooting 80%(instead of 70%) on the 282 FTA’s they got, adds less than 1.6ppg. But there are other aspects of this. Getting fouls gets other teams in trouble, and it also forces them to worry about inside points, which opens up the arc for treys. It also shows toughness, and teams can’t play you one way.


#10
[quote="kidcoyote, post:5, topic:1317"]Good find, hewey, back with a vengeance. ;) I'd like to see stats on FTA's vs percentage of shooting them. Maybe anecdotal, but MSU was worst shooting in Big 10 last year, but shot most FTA's. While of course missing didn't help, getting there did. PSU had and edge over their opponents in shooting FTA's last year, but their edge was way down. These numbers are startling. PSU played 7 more games in '08/09, yet gave up more FTA's this year. FTA's PSU opponent '08/09 691-478 '09/10 542-482[/quote]

Took me a couple of seconds to figure out your “stat.”…but, I like it and I ,in general, think it is “telling.” But, a game by game breakdown would be better. or how about “BigTen play” only?
I would think , maybe, PSU built their FTA positive margin against some VERY small and VERY weak out-of-conference foes.

Good question, and it’s telling. They only count the regular season 18 games when they show conference stats.

FTA’s PSU opponent Big 10 only
’08/09 285-240
’09/10 282-306

A delta yoy of 69 in 18 games. At 70% shooting, that’s ~48 points or an extra 2.7 ppg. Getting more shots is what wins games, not necessarily making them. 70% is good enough. Shooting 80%(instead of 70%) on the 282 FTA’s they got, adds less than 1.6ppg. But there are other aspects of this. Getting fouls gets other teams in trouble, and it also forces them to worry about inside points, which opens up the arc for treys. It also shows toughness, and teams can’t play you one way.

I have a very big problem with your remarks. You are calling Penn State out for the 306 free throw attempts that their B10 opponents shot last season but you haven’t a clue as to whether that’s a good number or bad. It’s just more than the previous season, so you conclude that it’s bad. Well guess what? You’re wrong.

Last year, we were the #4 team in the Big Ten in terms of not putting our conference opponents on the line. In my mind that’s pretty good and should not be called out.

Was it more than the previous season? Most definitely. But that’s only because the previous year we were the #2 team IN THE COUNTRY in that stat. It would be foolish to think that we could maintain that extraordinary performance on a year to year basis. But that didn’t stop you. Why? Because you hadn’t a clue as to whether our actual number was good or bad. It was just something that you could point your finger at.


#11
[quote="kidcoyote, post:5, topic:1317"]Good find, hewey, back with a vengeance. ;) I'd like to see stats on FTA's vs percentage of shooting them. Maybe anecdotal, but MSU was worst shooting in Big 10 last year, but shot most FTA's. While of course missing didn't help, getting there did. PSU had and edge over their opponents in shooting FTA's last year, but their edge was way down. These numbers are startling. PSU played 7 more games in '08/09, yet gave up more FTA's this year. FTA's PSU opponent '08/09 691-478 '09/10 542-482[/quote]

Took me a couple of seconds to figure out your “stat.”…but, I like it and I ,in general, think it is “telling.” But, a game by game breakdown would be better. or how about “BigTen play” only?
I would think , maybe, PSU built their FTA positive margin against some VERY small and VERY weak out-of-conference foes.

Good question, and it’s telling. They only count the regular season 18 games when they show conference stats.

FTA’s PSU opponent Big 10 only
’08/09 285-240
’09/10 282-306

A delta yoy of 69 in 18 games. At 70% shooting, that’s ~48 points or an extra 2.7 ppg. Getting more shots is what wins games, not necessarily making them. 70% is good enough. Shooting 80%(instead of 70%) on the 282 FTA’s they got, adds less than 1.6ppg. But there are other aspects of this. Getting fouls gets other teams in trouble, and it also forces them to worry about inside points, which opens up the arc for treys. It also shows toughness, and teams can’t play you one way.

I have a very big problem with your remarks. You are calling Penn State out for the 306 free throw attempts that their B10 opponents shot last season but you haven’t a clue as to whether that’s a good number or bad. It’s just more than the previous season, so you conclude that it’s bad. Well guess what? You’re wrong.

Last year, we were the #4 team in the Big Ten in terms of not putting our conference opponents on the line. In my mind that’s pretty good and should not be called out.

Was it more than the previous season? Most definitely. But that’s only because the previous year we were the #2 team IN THE COUNTRY in that stat. It would be foolish to think that we could maintain that extraordinary performance on a year to year basis. But that didn’t stop you. Why? Because you hadn’t a clue as to whether our actual number was good or bad. It was just something that you could point your finger at.

Why are you using one side of the argument? Forget how good we were at one side. The team in the prior season the team shot 18.75% more than their Big 10 opponents, the past season their opponents shot 8.5% more than PSU. I don’t really see any other area where PSU declined significantly yoy to account for the decline in wins. Not rebounding edge(it actually went up in all games), not assist/TO ratio, not 3 point shooting edge in shots taken. What’s your reason(s) for the decline in wins?


#12

He’s making the point that our bigs don’t play withtheir backs to the basket and the Talor gets to the line well.


#13

And how pray tell does how many four shots our opponents took have any relevance to that? He’s just throwing crap against the wall trying to see what sticks.


#14

I’ve been biting my tongue so hard it hurts…So…I think “you know who” calling out someone for a misuse of stats in the funniest thing I have heard in years. Talk about "the pot calling the kettle black!!"
P.S…I loved the “floating averages” and other misguided attempts to “prove” Eddie was successful ???


#15
[quote="kidcoyote, post:5, topic:1317"]Good find, hewey, back with a vengeance. ;) I'd like to see stats on FTA's vs percentage of shooting them. Maybe anecdotal, but MSU was worst shooting in Big 10 last year, but shot most FTA's. While of course missing didn't help, getting there did. PSU had and edge over their opponents in shooting FTA's last year, but their edge was way down. These numbers are startling. PSU played 7 more games in '08/09, yet gave up more FTA's this year. FTA's PSU opponent '08/09 691-478 '09/10 542-482[/quote]

Took me a couple of seconds to figure out your “stat.”…but, I like it and I ,in general, think it is “telling.” But, a game by game breakdown would be better. or how about “BigTen play” only?
I would think , maybe, PSU built their FTA positive margin against some VERY small and VERY weak out-of-conference foes.

Good question, and it’s telling. They only count the regular season 18 games when they show conference stats.

FTA’s PSU opponent Big 10 only
’08/09 285-240
’09/10 282-306

A delta yoy of 69 in 18 games. At 70% shooting, that’s ~48 points or an extra 2.7 ppg. Getting more shots is what wins games, not necessarily making them. 70% is good enough. Shooting 80%(instead of 70%) on the 282 FTA’s they got, adds less than 1.6ppg. But there are other aspects of this. Getting fouls gets other teams in trouble, and it also forces them to worry about inside points, which opens up the arc for treys. It also shows toughness, and teams can’t play you one way.

I have a very big problem with your remarks. You are calling Penn State out for the 306 free throw attempts that their B10 opponents shot last season but you haven’t a clue as to whether that’s a good number or bad. It’s just more than the previous season, so you conclude that it’s bad. Well guess what? You’re wrong.

Last year, we were the #4 team in the Big Ten in terms of not putting our conference opponents on the line. In my mind that’s pretty good and should not be called out.

Was it more than the previous season? Most definitely. But that’s only because the previous year we were the #2 team IN THE COUNTRY in that stat. It would be foolish to think that we could maintain that extraordinary performance on a year to year basis. But that didn’t stop you. Why? Because you hadn’t a clue as to whether our actual number was good or bad. It was just something that you could point your finger at.

Why are you using one side of the argument? Forget how good we were at one side. The team in the prior season the team shot 18.75% more than their Big 10 opponents, the past season their opponents shot 8.5% more than PSU. I don’t really see any other area where PSU declined significantly yoy to account for the decline in wins. Not rebounding edge(it actually went up in all games), not assist/TO ratio, not 3 point shooting edge in shots taken. What’s your reason(s) for the decline in wins?

I’m only looking at one side of the argument because there is no correlation between how often you get to the foul line and how often your opponent gets to the foul line.

We were the 20th ranked team in the country in not putting our opposition on the line. That is goodness. The only reason that there was a drop off from the previous season was because we were the #2 ranked team in the country the previous season. That’s a level of performance that was clearly unsustainable (I challenge you to find ANY stat where a team was ranked #1 or #2 in the country in one season and didn’t fall off a bit the following). Dropping from #2 to #20 should not be an area of concern - but you are trying to make it one.


#16

I tend to think it has to do with the fact that PSU did not enjoy the incredible luck they had the prior season. You know, that history making luck that got us what, an NIT championship? Hooray. ::slight_smile:

Although many here would rather describe the NIT season as a sign of the health of the program and last season as an aberration. ::slight_smile:


#17

[quote=“tundra, post:14, topic:1317”]I’ve been biting my tongue so hard it hurts…So…I think “you know who” calling out someone for a misuse of stats in the funniest thing I have heard in years. Talk about "the pot calling the kettle black!!"
P.S…I loved the “floating averages” and other misguided attempts to “prove” Eddie was successful ???[/quote]

It’s rolling average not “floating average” and anyone who has a statistical background will tell you that it’s a legitimate measure not something that I made up.

And I have consistently said that the only thing that the measure showed was that the program was improving but that it did not demonstrate whether that improvement was satisfactory or not.


#18

[quote=“UncleLar, post:15, topic:1317”]I’m only looking at one side of the argument because there is no correlation between how often you get to the foul line and how often your opponent gets to the foul line.

We were the 20th ranked team in the country in not putting our opposition on the line. That is goodness. The only reason that there was a drop off from the previous season was because we were the #2 ranked team in the country the previous season. That’s a level of performance that was clearly unsustainable (I challenge you to find ANY stat where a team was ranked #1 or #2 in the country in one season and didn’t fall off a bit the following). Dropping from #2 to #20 should not be an area of concern - but you are trying to make it one.[/quote]

Just to reemphasize my point.

Here’s the top 25 teams in the country in terms of getting to the free throw line according to Ken Pomerory (measured by FTA/FGA).

1 North Texas
2 Cal St. Northridge
3 Wyoming
4 Kansas St.
5 Northwestern St.
6 Vermont
7 Gonzaga
8 Colorado St.
9 Arkansas Pine Bluff
10 Texas A&M
11 Vanderbilt
12 Alabama A&M
13 Northern Colorado
14 Lamar
15 Detroit
16 Butler
17 Tulsa
18 Texas St.
19 Ball St.
20 Central Arkansas
21 Marshall
22 Arkansas Little Rock
23 Robert Morris
24 Campbell
25 Austin Peay

And here’s the top 25 in the country in terms of not putting your opponent on the line.

1 Siena
2 South Dakota
3 North Carolina
4 Brown
5 Mississippi St.
6 Syracuse
7 Michigan
8 Ohio St.
9 Connecticut
10 Temple
11 Iowa St.
12 Samford
13 Florida
14 Notre Dame
15 Louisiana Tech
16 Central Connecticut
17 Lafayette
18 Northern Iowa
19 Northeastern
20 Penn St.
21 Marquette
22 Radford
23 Coastal Carolina
24 Maryland
25 Kentucky

Note: There are no duplicates in this list suggesting there is no relationship between the two stats.


#19

[quote=“tundra, post:14, topic:1317”]I’ve been biting my tongue so hard it hurts…So…I think “you know who” calling out someone for a misuse of stats in the funniest thing I have heard in years. Talk about "the pot calling the kettle black!!"
P.S…I loved the “floating averages” and other misguided attempts to “prove” Eddie was successful ???[/quote]

Anyone who doesn’t understand the rolling (edit: you’ve got me saying it wrong now too) averages point that Lar made way back when shouldn’t really be commenting on it.

I don’t mean that to be offensive, but it was a pretty simple explanation that seems to have gone over many people’s heads here.


#20
[quote="kidcoyote, post:5, topic:1317"]Good find, hewey, back with a vengeance. ;) I'd like to see stats on FTA's vs percentage of shooting them. Maybe anecdotal, but MSU was worst shooting in Big 10 last year, but shot most FTA's. While of course missing didn't help, getting there did. PSU had and edge over their opponents in shooting FTA's last year, but their edge was way down. These numbers are startling. PSU played 7 more games in '08/09, yet gave up more FTA's this year. FTA's PSU opponent '08/09 691-478 '09/10 542-482[/quote]

Took me a couple of seconds to figure out your “stat.”…but, I like it and I ,in general, think it is “telling.” But, a game by game breakdown would be better. or how about “BigTen play” only?
I would think , maybe, PSU built their FTA positive margin against some VERY small and VERY weak out-of-conference foes.

Good question, and it’s telling. They only count the regular season 18 games when they show conference stats.

FTA’s PSU opponent Big 10 only
’08/09 285-240
’09/10 282-306

A delta yoy of 69 in 18 games. At 70% shooting, that’s ~48 points or an extra 2.7 ppg. Getting more shots is what wins games, not necessarily making them. 70% is good enough. Shooting 80%(instead of 70%) on the 282 FTA’s they got, adds less than 1.6ppg. But there are other aspects of this. Getting fouls gets other teams in trouble, and it also forces them to worry about inside points, which opens up the arc for treys. It also shows toughness, and teams can’t play you one way.

I have a very big problem with your remarks. You are calling Penn State out for the 306 free throw attempts that their B10 opponents shot last season but you haven’t a clue as to whether that’s a good number or bad. It’s just more than the previous season, so you conclude that it’s bad. Well guess what? You’re wrong.

Last year, we were the #4 team in the Big Ten in terms of not putting our conference opponents on the line. In my mind that’s pretty good and should not be called out.

Was it more than the previous season? Most definitely. But that’s only because the previous year we were the #2 team IN THE COUNTRY in that stat. It would be foolish to think that we could maintain that extraordinary performance on a year to year basis. But that didn’t stop you. Why? Because you hadn’t a clue as to whether our actual number was good or bad. It was just something that you could point your finger at.

Why are you using one side of the argument? Forget how good we were at one side. The team in the prior season the team shot 18.75% more than their Big 10 opponents, the past season their opponents shot 8.5% more than PSU. I don’t really see any other area where PSU declined significantly yoy to account for the decline in wins. Not rebounding edge(it actually went up in all games), not assist/TO ratio, not 3 point shooting edge in shots taken. What’s your reason(s) for the decline in wins?

How about a little of everything?

How about just the simple fact that our offensive and defensive efficiency numbers both slipped? We turned it over more, we didn’t offensive rebound as well, and we didn’t shoot it as well offensively. Then defensively we gave up a higher shooting percentage and caused even fewer turnovers than our measly amount the year before.

We were however, the best defensive rebounding team in the country but unfortunately we gave up too high of a shooting percentage for it to translate into much of a defensive presence. Still - for all the whining you do about our big guys not rebounding enough, we seem to do okay on the boards as a team and I’m not going to nitpick on where those boards come from when we aren’t a fast break team. Still, it’s another fact you’re always touting that’s dead wrong and silly.

I also don’t believe that a lack of fouling of the other team isn’t always necessarily a good thing. Especially when we get killed by the 3 ball (7th most in the nation) so often - I’d much rather make teams earn it from the line than beat us from deep in some cases, when you’re facing teams that are going to get open 3’s and make them…

Got anymore brainbusters?