PennStateHoops.com Discussion Forum

The long awaited annual rolling averages


#1

I’ve had these finished for a while but just haven’t gotten around to doing the write-up that I usually put with them. Since they were referenced in a post earlier today, I’ve decided to not wait any longer. Rather than do a write0-up, I’ll just post them and let people make their own assessment.

For those that haven’t a clue what these are about, read my explanation from last year.

I’ll put up a separate post for each chart to help organize it a bit.


#2

Overall Winning Percentage (since we joined the Big Ten)


#3

Big Ten Winning Percentage (since we joined the B10)


#4

I was just about to correct you, too! Foiled again! :smiley:


#5

The first two charts were since we joined the Big Ten. From here on out they are all DeChellis years, with a repeat of the two winning percentage charts for just DeChellis but with the weighted moving average thrown in.


#6


#7


#8

Looks like Lar is workin @ gettin his daily post count back up again! :smiley: :wink:


#9


#10


#11

Hey at least the program is not flat-lining it. Though I would take a flat-line if it was at the 2009 level:-)


#12

All of the Dechellis Era charts are definitely showing an upward trend… Is that just because of the abysmal program at the end of the Dunn years? To an extent, yes, but according to those charts he is building a program.

I could do without the dramatic spikes that you see, but the graphs are showing that we are not at all where the program was during Dunn’s last couple of years. Now, stats like that can be easily skewed, it doesn’t take into account the quality of the competition that they are playing, except for during the B10 season. I’d be interested in comparing Dunn’s last few OOC schedules to ED’s last few…


#13

98-99
VMI
at Ohio State ::slight_smile:
Lehigh
at George Mason
#10 Temple
Villanova
at Bradley
Pennsylvania
Bucknell
Florida International*
Holy Cross*

99-00
Lehigh
Loyola, MD
Boston College
Clemson
at Pennsylvania
George Mason
at Villanova
Bucknell
at #19 Temple
Manhattan*
Arizona State*

00-01
Loyala MD
at #21 Kentucky
at N.C. State
Pennsylvania
Pittsburgh
#23 Temple
Wagner
Bucknell
Princeton*
Hofstra*
at Yale (during conference season)

01-02
Yale
Lafayette
at #17 Boston College
Clemson
at Temple
Lehigh
at Pittsburgh
James Madison
Bucknell
Coppin State*
at California*

02-03
at North Carolina (NIT)
at Pennsylvania
Yale
at Clemson
#4 Pittsburgh
Temple
Northeastern
Bucknell
St. Francis, PA
Robert Morris
Buffalo

*Midseason Tournaments


#14
I'd be interested in comparing Dunn's last few OOC schedules to ED's last few...

98-99
VMI
at Ohio State ::slight_smile:
Lehigh
at George Mason
#10 Temple
Villanova
at Bradley
Pennsylvania
Bucknell
Florida International*
Holy Cross*

99-00
Lehigh
Loyola, MD
Boston College
Clemson
at Pennsylvania
George Mason
at Villanova
Bucknell
at #19 Temple
Manhattan*
Arizona State*

00-01
Loyala MD
at #21 Kentucky
at N.C. State
Pennsylvania
Pittsburgh
#23 Temple
Wagner
Bucknell
Princeton*
Hofstra*
at Yale (during conference season)

01-02
Yale
Lafayette
at #17 Boston College
Clemson
at Temple
Lehigh
at Pittsburgh
James Madison
Bucknell
Coppin State*
at California*

02-03
at North Carolina (NIT)
at Pennsylvania
Yale
at Clemson
#4 Pittsburgh
Temple
Northeastern
Bucknell
St. Francis, PA
Robert Morris
Buffalo

*Midseason Tournaments


I’d be more interested in seeing the average RPI for an OOC opponent on our schedule those years and Dechellis’s last few years. That is way too much work though, so please don’t bother yourself.

Thank you though for what you did do - so it looks like Dunn would schedule at least one “big name”/ranked opponent every OOC? I was around for the Dunn years, just don’t remember his scheduling practices too well.


#15

Thanks, Lar! I didn’t look at these when you did them last year (too depressed, maybe) but the rolling average does a nice job of preserving the trends and smoothing the data.

Now that you’ve sufficiently demonstrated that the rolling average works, you can do all sorts of fun thing, like put the rolling average figures for all the various rankings you looked at in one dual-y graph. Also, if you’re really bored, look at all the BigTen teams during the Ed era. I presume much, but would love to see it.

This is a small point, but THANKS for having your vertical axis start at zero. Always a pet peeve of mine when people don’t.


#16

Also, I’m surprised at how high PSU was during the mid 90’s, and how the magic sweet 16 year just put a temporary slow on a long and deep decline. So it looks like Ed has slowly gotten PSU crawling back up to where it was a decade or so ago.


#17

I love this stuff.


#18
I love this stuff.

I’m a first timer in seeing these charts, but I second what you said. This is really cool to see the progression (and regression) as the years go by. While next year is an expected step back, hopefully the overall upward trend of the program isn’t hindered.

I think the hope is that if we continue improving, our steps backwards become smaller and smaller. When a program like Wisconsin or MSU have a “bad” year they are still competitive teams. Hopefully we can get to that point someday, I think seeing the graphs Lar has posted show that we are getting closer to that in some ways under Ed. Still a ways to go, but definitely moving in the right direction on the whole. :slight_smile:


#19

I guess you don’t like my Pomeroy and Sagarin charts then. ;D


#20
This is a small point, but THANKS for having your vertical axis start at zero. Always a pet peeve of mine when people don't.

I guess you don’t like my Pomeroy and Sagarin charts then. ;D

I realize that sometimes its a necessary evil :wink: