PennStateHoops.com Discussion Forum

Stats/Thoughts on OOC Schedule


#1

Now that the OOC schedule is complete and we’re 8-5, I thought it would be interesting to take a look back and see what we’ve learned and how the team has progressed:

Games decided by 5 pts or less: 2 - 2 (W - USF and BC; L - MISS and LAF)
Games decided by 6-10 pts: 2 - 1 (W - LIU and Cornell; L - Duq)
Games decided by > 10 pts: 4 - 2 (W - Hart, Rad, YSU, MSM; L - KY, SJ)

Home: 6 - 2
Away: 1 - 2
Neutral: 1 - 1

Defensive intensity has been good
Loose ball hustle has been outstanding
Given up too many wide open threes
At the beginning of the season, if Tim didn’t score 20, we struggle. Now we have three or four in double figures.
Teams have figured out that if they stop Tim, they have a good shot at beating us.
8-5 with a young team and a new coach and new philosophy isn’t bad.
Looking forward to getting Jon Graham back. We’ll need him for the conf season. Pat says he should be ready to go for Michigan.
Foul shooting has improved and is now up to about 70%.
We’re starting to develop a three pt threat - Billy Oliver, Cam, Trey, Jermaine seem to be our best bets.

Here are my individual player grades:

Tim - A
Billy - B
Sasa - C
Jermaine - B
Matt - C
Trey - C+
Ross - B
Cam - B
Jon - incomplete

Intangibles:

I was really impressed with the hand slapping all the way down the bench; hustle for loose balls; running to pick up fallen teammates; enthusiasm on the bench, etc, etc. I was wondering if it would abate as the season went on. I’ve seen some dropoff, but not a lot.

I was also wondering how the players would respond to Pat’s aggressive coaching and ass-chewing. They’re still reacting pretty well, although I’ve seen some guys start to tune him out a little when they come out of the game. That’s natural.

Team seemed tired in the pre-exam December games. I think that’s normal. I expect to see more enthusiasm and bounce once the BIG starts.

Close games: not bad. We all know that the difference between the disaster season of two years ago and last season’s NCAA tournament team was close games. We lost most of them when Talor was a junior and we won most of them with last year’s experienced seniors.

We’ll win some games in the BIG - not sure how many. The BIG is so good and so competitive that we’re bound to catch a couple teams coming off tough games against Ill, OSU, and MSU and they’ll come out flat against us.

I hope more students support this team, but I doubt it. The kids who come are great; those who are too busy playing XBOX or watching Happy Days reruns, well, it’s your team at your school.

I’m sure I missed some stuff. Comments?


#2

The OOC season basically tells us what we already expected from the start.

This team has a lot of good things going for it, but it will get blown out. But also when the team is able to put together a full game and finally figure out where the bottom of the net is, they’ll surprise a few times, too.

These guys need a B1G win sooner rather than later just to avoid the stress that a losing streak will surely put on them.


#3

Don’t agree. These guys are much better than I expected. Might not be reflected in the W-L at the end of year, but I continue to believe the “drop off” is much less than I expected.

This is an “eyeball” thing - I think we’re just much better basketball players than our experience (both basketball experience from our players and our experience as Penn State basketball fans with reach recruits who are projects) would predict.


#4

[quote=“Tom, post:2, topic:2930”]The OOC season basically tells us what we already expected from the start.

This team has a lot of good things going for it, but it will get blown out. But also when the team is able to put together a full game and finally figure out where the bottom of the net is, they’ll surprise a few times, too.

These guys need a B1G win sooner rather than later just to avoid the stress that a losing streak will surely put on them.[/quote]

    1. Hopefully they can steal one of those first few b10 games. Wins are going to be real hard to come by for this squad come b10 play

#5
[quote="Tom, post:2, topic:2930"]The OOC season basically tells us what we already expected from the start.[/quote]

Don’t agree. These guys are much better than I expected. Might not be reflected in the W-L at the end of year, but I continue to believe the “drop off” is much less than I expected.

This is an “eyeball” thing - I think we’re just much better basketball players than our experience (both basketball experience from our players and our experience as Penn State basketball fans with reach recruits who are projects) would predict.

I have to agree with Tim.

We had one proven player at this level of basketball before the season started (one and a half if you want to include Marshall) and now I feel, after seeing the last three halves of hoops that this team is a lot more talented than any of us could predict prior to the season. The only game I wish we had back was Lafayette. The other losses were sort of expected in a way.

Still, OOC vs Big Ten is a big jump. So I will hold judgment of this team until they get their feet wet in conference play. At least now I feel that we are bringing a little bit more than a knife to a gun fight. Might be a bb gun or a pistol to the Big Ten’s rifles, but at least I feel we’ll be able to take our shots against most of the teams in the league.


#6

I agree with Tim that these guys are better than I thought they would be.

I think this is a more athletic team than last year’s team. I think guys like Ross Travis, Jon Graham, Sasa, Trey, and Jermaine have more upside than DJ, Andrew Jones, etc. The only exception was Jeff Brooks - probably the best athlete we’ve recruited in a long time; but he didn’t really blossom as a really good Big Ten player until his senior year. I think by the time our current freshmen and sophomores are juniors and seniors, they’ll be much better than last year’s starting five. I also think Pat will bring in some much better recruits, so I see us on an upswing.

The only problem is that the rest of the Big will be getting better, too.


#7

[quote=“NittanyIllini, post:5, topic:2930”]We had one proven player at this level of basketball before the season started (one and a half if you want to include Marshall) and now I feel, after seeing the last three halves of hoops that this team is a lot more talented than any of us could predict prior to the season. The only game I wish we had back was Lafayette. The other losses were sort of expected in a way.

Still, OOC vs Big Ten is a big jump. So I will hold judgment of this team until they get their feet wet in conference play. At least now I feel that we are bringing a little bit more than a knife to a gun fight. Might be a bb gun or a pistol to the Big Ten’s rifles, but at least I feel we’ll be able to take our shots against most of the teams in the league.[/quote]

But when your best win against the #228th ranked OOC schedule is against a 7-6 Long Island team, a lot needs to happen really fast to make this season somewhat palpable (even despite low expectations). There’s enough there for it to happen, but so much has to happen fast.

Starting the conference season with two road games (while averaging 20 first half points per game on the road) isn’t the best remedy.


#8

Santini’s first post on this thread was very good.
Because so many players were unknown I had no real expectations before the season.

In general I am very happy with this group. They really hustle and play with great team spirit.


#9

The biggest surprise for me has been how well this team rebounds. I thought we’d get killed on the boards due to our lack of experience/talent in the front court. But these guys have more than held their own. If you take the perspective that there are two rebounding battles every night, one on the offensive glass, the other on the defensive glass, then the 13 games that we’ve played equates to 26 rebounding contests. Of those 26, we’ve only lost two - the offensive battle against Boston College and the defensive one against South Florida. That’s quite an accomplishment.

The least surprise to me was how, despite pronouncements from the new staff about becoming a running team, we fell back into a slow down the tempo squad. Once again we are playing at a pedestrian pace (according to KemPom, we’re 310th in the country in adjusted pace and I wouldn’t expect that to get any faster during Big Ten play). I think it was tjb that mentioned earlier in the year how every new coach at every new school seems to say that they want to be a running team, but when the reality sets in, they slow things down.

Just look at some of Chamber’s quotes following last night’s game.

[i]“We didn’t turn the ball over, we slowed down. What did we have at the half? 10 or 11? We had 11 total (turnovers) against Mount St. Mary’s. So when I’m looking it, we’re hurting ourselves. We’ve got to slow down. Cornell did a good job speeding us up and into some poor decisions. We’ve just got to slow down and that’s what we did in the second half. You saw Tim change speeds and change directions. We did a much better job, a much better pace.”

“I think what you saw was a better Tim Frazier in the second half, where he really dictated the tempo,” said Chambers. I really believe, in a tight game, that was the first time he really did that. So that’s progress."[/i]

Everybody may want to run, but when you don’t have thoroughbreds in your stable, turning things into a trot seems like a wise move.


#10

I thought the most improved player from the OOC was Sasa. There was a point where I really wanted him to start to lose minutes, but he started to make an impact and I like it. If Graham hadn’t gotten hurt I’d feel really good about the future prospects of our frontcourt.


#11

You mean sick. Graham had mono, right?


#12
[quote="Tom, post:2, topic:2930"]The OOC season basically tells us what we already expected from the start.[/quote]

Don’t agree. These guys are much better than I expected. Might not be reflected in the W-L at the end of year, but I continue to believe the “drop off” is much less than I expected.

This is an “eyeball” thing - I think we’re just much better basketball players than our experience (both basketball experience from our players and our experience as Penn State basketball fans with reach recruits who are projects) would predict.

I have to agree with Tim.

We had one proven player at this level of basketball before the season started (one and a half if you want to include Marshall) and now I feel, after seeing the last three halves of hoops that this team is a lot more talented than any of us could predict prior to the season. The only game I wish we had back was Lafayette. The other losses were sort of expected in a way.

Still, OOC vs Big Ten is a big jump. So I will hold judgment of this team until they get their feet wet in conference play. At least now I feel that we are bringing a little bit more than a knife to a gun fight. Might be a bb gun or a pistol to the Big Ten’s rifles, but at least I feel we’ll be able to take our shots against most of the teams in the league.

I try to be realistic about these things.

I don’t think we have much more talent than what we predicted. I don’t think that 7-5 is very far off what we were predicting. We beat a lot of really bad teams, and lost big to some pretty good ones.

Timmy is a lot better that what I thought he would be. Sasa is looking good. Trey is not producing like I thought he would. The others, at least I think, are about what we expected.

I still think they will have their hands full come conference time, and I don’t see them winning more than 1 or 2 games. I see an absolute whoopin against Ohio State.


#13

[quote=“UncleLar, post:9, topic:2930”]The biggest surprise for me has been how well this team rebounds. I thought we’d get killed on the boards due to our lack of experience/talent in the front court. But these guys have more than held their own. If you take the perspective that there are two rebounding battles every night, one on the offensive glass, the other on the defensive glass, then the 13 games that we’ve played equates to 26 rebounding contests. Of those 26, we’ve only lost two - the offensive battle against Boston College and the defensive one against South Florida. That’s quite an accomplishment.

The least surprise to me was how, despite pronouncements from the new staff about becoming a running team, we fell back into a slow down the tempo squad. Once again we are playing at a pedestrian pace (according to KemPom, we’re 310th in the country in adjusted pace and I wouldn’t expect that to get any faster during Big Ten play). I think it was tjb that mentioned earlier in the year how every new coach at every new school seems to say that they want to be a running team, but when the reality sets in, they slow things down.

Just look at some of Chamber’s quotes following last night’s game.

[i]“We didn’t turn the ball over, we slowed down. What did we have at the half? 10 or 11? We had 11 total (turnovers) against Mount St. Mary’s. So when I’m looking it, we’re hurting ourselves. We’ve got to slow down. Cornell did a good job speeding us up and into some poor decisions. We’ve just got to slow down and that’s what we did in the second half. You saw Tim change speeds and change directions. We did a much better job, a much better pace.”

“I think what you saw was a better Tim Frazier in the second half, where he really dictated the tempo,” said Chambers. I really believe, in a tight game, that was the first time he really did that. So that’s progress."[/i]

Everybody may want to run, but when you don’t have thoroughbreds in your stable, turning things into a trot seems like a wise move.[/quote]Once Pat gets his own recruits into the system we’ll see if he’s really about running or not . You have an inexperienced team that doesn’t go very deep. Can’t be pulling Carl Lewis jobs up and down the court and expect to have legs all year .


#14

He’s been fighting an ankle injury all season (until last night apparently)


#15

[quote=“UncleLar, post:9, topic:2930”]The biggest surprise for me has been how well this team rebounds. I thought we’d get killed on the boards due to our lack of experience/talent in the front court. But these guys have more than held their own. If you take the perspective that there are two rebounding battles every night, one on the offensive glass, the other on the defensive glass, then the 13 games that we’ve played equates to 26 rebounding contests. Of those 26, we’ve only lost two - the offensive battle against Boston College and the defensive one against South Florida. That’s quite an accomplishment.

The least surprise to me was how, despite pronouncements from the new staff about becoming a running team, we fell back into a slow down the tempo squad. Once again we are playing at a pedestrian pace (according to KemPom, we’re 310th in the country in adjusted pace and I wouldn’t expect that to get any faster during Big Ten play). I think it was tjb that mentioned earlier in the year how every new coach at every new school seems to say that they want to be a running team, but when the reality sets in, they slow things down.

Just look at some of Chamber’s quotes following last night’s game.

[i]“We didn’t turn the ball over, we slowed down. What did we have at the half? 10 or 11? We had 11 total (turnovers) against Mount St. Mary’s. So when I’m looking it, we’re hurting ourselves. We’ve got to slow down. Cornell did a good job speeding us up and into some poor decisions. We’ve just got to slow down and that’s what we did in the second half. You saw Tim change speeds and change directions. We did a much better job, a much better pace.”

“I think what you saw was a better Tim Frazier in the second half, where he really dictated the tempo,” said Chambers. I really believe, in a tight game, that was the first time he really did that. So that’s progress."[/i]

Everybody may want to run, but when you don’t have thoroughbreds in your stable, turning things into a trot seems like a wise move.[/quote]

I agree with this. Before the season, I would cringe at the thought of our bigs fighting for boards.

Overall, the level of play has exceeded my expectations. I do not know whether to attribute that to Chambers’ coaching or to my inability to formulate accurate expectations.


#16

Listening to the post game interview with Steve and Brian Daly, Brian said he thought Trey was our best pure shooter (that kind of surprised me). He also said Trey has had a bad high ankle sprain that really cut into his effectiveness and that he was just starting to round into the kind of player we think he can be.

The way college hoops has involved, you almost have to have a certified three point threat to be a consistent winner. Billy, Cam and Jermaine have shown some ability at hitting threes, but don’t look to be Deibler-like. Hopefully Trey can evolve into that consistent three point threat.


#17
[quote="Tom, post:2, topic:2930"]The OOC season basically tells us what we already expected from the start.[/quote]

Don’t agree. These guys are much better than I expected. Might not be reflected in the W-L at the end of year, but I continue to believe the “drop off” is much less than I expected.

This is an “eyeball” thing - I think we’re just much better basketball players than our experience (both basketball experience from our players and our experience as Penn State basketball fans with reach recruits who are projects) would predict.

I have to agree with Tim.

We had one proven player at this level of basketball before the season started (one and a half if you want to include Marshall) and now I feel, after seeing the last three halves of hoops that this team is a lot more talented than any of us could predict prior to the season. The only game I wish we had back was Lafayette. The other losses were sort of expected in a way.

Still, OOC vs Big Ten is a big jump. So I will hold judgment of this team until they get their feet wet in conference play. At least now I feel that we are bringing a little bit more than a knife to a gun fight. Might be a bb gun or a pistol to the Big Ten’s rifles, but at least I feel we’ll be able to take our shots against most of the teams in the league.

I try to be realistic about these things.

I don’t think we have much more talent than what we predicted. I don’t think that 7-5 is very far off what we were predicting. We beat a lot of really bad teams, and lost big to some pretty good ones.

Timmy is a lot better that what I thought he would be. Sasa is looking good. Trey is not producing like I thought he would. The others, at least I think, are about what we expected.

I still think they will have their hands full come conference time, and I don’t see them winning more than 1 or 2 games. I see an absolute whoopin against Ohio State.

I hope you are wrong. I can see this going either way. Last year I felt pretty bad heading into conference play and we turned it around. The difference is that last year, I thought we way underachieved in the OOC games. This year, with the exception of Lafayette, I think we won the games we should have won. I think we could beat Miss and Duquesne as well, but to me those were not horrible losses like Maine last year or Lafayette. The reason I can see this season going either way is because this team hasn’t reached its potential yet. We’ve seen lights go on for certain players here and there. If we can get more consistency from Marshall, Lewis, Graham, Sasa, Cam, Billy, etc. we can compete against most teams. And that means we will pull out some games. 1 or 2 wins would be disappointing. I think 6 (on third) would make me feel like we are on the right track heading to next season. That’s probably asking a lot though.


#18

If we can get to 11-12 wins for the season i feel Pat and this team will have overachieved


#19

FWIW, a tempo-free stats comparison for those stats that are significantly different:

[ul][li]Efficiency: offense slipped from 1.02 to 0.98 PPS, but defense cranked it down from 0.99 to 0.94 so the delta is actually up a bit!
[/li][li]Shooting: eFG% down slightly (.471 to .457), driven mainly by a decrease in 2PT% (.468 to .446). And as we all suspected, PSU’s percentage of attempts from 3 shot up from .342 to .405. On the defensive side, opponents eFG% came down from .495 to .482, driven (surprisingly for me) by a decrease in 3PT% from .389 to .351. However, PSU’s opponents are also attempting many more 3’s–46.8% of their attempts this year vs. 37.4% last year–and thus cushioning the impact somewhat.[/li]
[li]Rebounding: as UncleLar already stated, PSU has actually improved measurably in both areas, grabbing 38.0% of the available offensive rebounds (vs. 35.0% last year) and 73.5% of the available defensive rebounds (vs. 68.0%) last year.[/li]
[li]Ball handling: pretty much what the eyeballs told us: more TO’s on PSU’s part (up from 19.1% of possessions to 20.9%) but more TO’s forced also (up from 22.0% to 23.8%), thanks mostly to a big jump in steals (PSU gets a steal on about 11.1% of opponent possessions vs. 8.1% last year).[/li]
[li]Free throws: percentage is down from .715 to .637 while opponents’ percentage is up from .683 to .741.[/li][/ul]

So some very hopeful signs (rebounding, steals) and some things that need to be worked on (shooting, turnovers, FT’s). But I would agree with the other posters who have said that this team look more promising at this point than I had hoped for when the season started.


#20

I really think that rebounding and steals are hustle stats. I also think that last year, a lot of our guys subconsciously didn’t go all out on every play because they knew they were going to play 35+ minutes a game for the whole season and that they couldn’t be super aggressive on the boards or on D because there was no one behind them if they fouled out.

This year, I think our guys know that 9 or 10 guys will play and that most (except for Tim) won’t have to play 35+ minutes a game. So we’ve seem uptempo D and everyone has bought into it. If you don’t play uptempo D, you don’t play.