PennStateHoops.com Discussion Forum

Stats show some BIG concerns


#1

I cranked the Ole Miss, Maryland, and Va Tech #'s for my blog.

Granted, you don’t need any #'s to know we’ve sucked against our big competition, but these are some troubling signs. The only thing this team has consistently done well in all 3 games is take care of the basketball. Now some of the offensive numbers are bogged down by the Maryland egg, but those defensive numbers are very, very real. If PSU gives up 1.2 PPP in Big Ten play, it’d be their worst defensive showing in the conference ever under Ed. The -0.25 efficiency margin (Pts per Poss - Opp Pts per Poss) would also be Ed’s worst (and would be worthy of a 0-18, 1-17 record in the Big Ten).

This team has major issues considering that this sample size comes from KenPom’s #25, #50, and #60 teams. We have to face #3, #8, #13, #15, #18, #43, #53, #66 twice in conference play. This team is playing much worse than last year’s squad is and I don’t see any reason to believe a miraculous turnaround in conference play…


#2

Maybe the team is playing worse, but I think we’ll win more than 11 games.


#3

I’ve been thinking about something for the past few day and these statistics reaffirm this question in my mind… is Ed going to take a drastic measure to turn things around?

One would believe that this is a put up or shut up season for Ed which should force him to win by any means. Will he start sitting seniors? Will he play Bowman, Marshall, or Woodyard more? If Graham can be ready to go, will he burn his medical redshirt (or whatever we’re doing with him)? What will Ed do to get the ship righted?

Based on the stats you’ve pointed out Eric we need to bring the D. Maybe we should switch to a zone defense.


#4

In reply to what you’re saying byake, I think you posed an interesting question. Going along with the assumption that Ed has been told this is a put up or shut up type of season I still don’t seem he doing anything drastic. I don’t think Graham would play. I would think we’d see less of Frazier and more of Buie and Bowman. I think he ultimately trusts the guys who have been with this team for 4 or 5 seasons before he’ll put his job in the hands of more inexperienced players.


#5

That in itself is the problem with Ed. Occasionally a coach needs to send a message, if that means playing inexperienced guys so be it. Now is the time to do it before conference play starts. If your not getting it done with the same players you’ve had for 4-5 years then what.


#6

How do you know coach hasn’t sent a message to the team behind closed doors already?


#7

[quote=“byake, post:3, topic:1640”]I’ve been thinking about something for the past few day and these statistics reaffirm this question in my mind… is Ed going to take a drastic measure to turn things around?

One would believe that this is a put up or shut up season for Ed which should force him to win by any means. Will he start sitting seniors? Will he play Bowman, Marshall, or Woodyard more? If Graham can be ready to go, will he burn his medical redshirt (or whatever we’re doing with him)? What will Ed do to get the ship righted?

Based on the stats you’ve pointed out Eric we need to bring the D. Maybe we should switch to a zone defense.[/quote]

You don’t shake things up by playing guys who are worse than the ones you have out there. I don’t think that makes any sense in this case. The people clamoring for more Bowman, Marshall, and Woodyard are just not getting it - we need more defense, not offense…and none of those guys has shown the ability to play a lick of defense. At least the guys we play the most occasionally have the idea behind what’s going on defensively, and the hope is that not everybody will shoot 45 percent from 3 against us - which would probably be an NCAA record.

I was looking at those numbers the OP mention and while they are very troublesome, they are also severe outliers in a lot of ways. Take VaTech for instance… they played UNC-Greensboro earlier this year, one of the worst teams and worst defenses in the entire country and hung up 92 points on them… they only shot 53.7% against them from the field, and just 25% from 3 versus the 54.5% and 47% from 3 they managed against us - those are outrageous numbers that they will probably not hit again all season long.

Now if our defense were truly as bad as UNC-Greensboro’s, we’d see terrible defensive numbers against every team we’ve faced so far - yet we only have two truly bad defensive performances and they were both a result of the other team lighting the nets up, particularly from 3.

We’ve seemingly always had trouble defending the 3-ball, so I’m not willing to write this off as just bad luck… but it is worth noting that our defense isn’t as bad as those types of nights make us look. Already this season we have had a lot of very tough, contested (even crazy banked) shots fall against us. We certainly have issues in the paint as well, as we all knew we would coming into this season, but the biggest thing going wrong right now is the great shooting of our opponents and our inability to defend the 3-point line better.

Maybe zone is something worth considering, but typically that encourages a team to shoot more 3’s against you - I’m not sure that’s what we are looking to do right now. I think we just need to see more ball pressure on the perimeter - enough of this pack it in, 3 guys help on every drive system we’re running right now. We have some athletes with long arms that could become a problem if we were to begin overplaying all over the floor. We’ll give up layups still but we already do, at least we stop giving up 3 pointers.

If anything, this is where the bench guards COULD be of use - get in there and really get in your opponents face defensively, use your fouls up a little bit going for steals. Too often I see our subs come in and just kind of float on defense - these guys need to work harder if they expect more minutes, I see very little fire on the defensive end from any of the bench players… that needs adjusted in a hurry.


#8

Those stats are just simply disgusting. It’s one thing to lose, but thats just awful. Surely alarming statistics to say the least. Gotta believe that Ed will do something, anything to get this turned around. But the whole “they shot the lights out against us” song and dance is getting really old.


#9

If this season pans out in the fashion that your graphs suggest, it is safe to assume that 2010-11 would be Ed’s last. Im stronglyconsidering a subscription to the theory that PSU just may be waiting until JoePa decides to retire before making a move. I doubt they want to hire a hoops coach that makes more than Joe. I’ve heard this theory more than a few times and I am almost inclined to believe it. I think if PSU has a dreadful conference season and Ed is retained, I think it is fair to assume that the aforementioned theory might have some substance to it.


#10

Okay - it’s “defend Ed” time.

There’s no conspiracy theory - Ed is around because they haven’t had good enough reason to let him go (yet). THIS would be the year that determines his future - find me a year before this one where you could have let him go and it would have made sense. Let’s walk through history together real quick…

His first 2 years are a joke because he had nothing to start with, and you have to give a rebuilding job more than 2 years. So he makes the NIT his 3rd year - a nice progression for 3 years. So he’s rewarded with an extension at this point, which almost any reasonable fan could support.

The following year became kind of a mess with only 11 wins, then he gets 15, then 27. I’d say that ought to buy him a little bit more time? Oh but wait we have another disappointing season last year, so that makes this year kind of it doesn’t it? And it sounds to me like everybody supports the idea that it’s now or never for this program.

Where does your conspiracy fit into this? The guy has done an okay job, with some highs and lows… and now here we are, and people act like he’s been horrible his entire time here - that we’ve accomplished nothing compared to our back to back 7 win seasons before he showed up. Where would you have had good reason to let him go prior to this season? I’m curious.


#11

What I see from these stats is that we got outplayed by the 3 teams from the big conferences. And that time leading is a killer, 10 minutes to 1 hour :frowning:


#12
[quote="mhenry41, post:9, topic:1640"]If this season pans out in the fashion that your graphs suggest, it is safe to assume that 2010-11 would be Ed's last. Im stronglyconsidering a subscription to the theory that PSU just may be waiting until JoePa decides to retire before making a move. I doubt they want to hire a hoops coach that makes more than Joe. I've heard this theory more than a few times and I am almost inclined to believe it. I think if PSU has a dreadful conference season and Ed is retained, I think it is fair to assume that the aforementioned theory might have some substance to it.[/quote]

Okay - it’s “defend Ed” time.

There’s no conspiracy theory - Ed is around because they haven’t had good enough reason to let him go (yet). THIS would be the year that determines his future - find me a year before this one where you could have let him go and it would have made sense. Let’s walk through history together real quick…

His first 2 years are a joke because he had nothing to start with, and you have to give a rebuilding job more than 2 years. So he makes the NIT his 3rd year - a nice progression for 3 years. So he’s rewarded with an extension at this point, which almost any reasonable fan could support.

The following year became kind of a mess with only 11 wins, then he gets 15, then 27. I’d say that ought to buy him a little bit more time? Oh but wait we have another disappointing season last year, so that makes this year kind of it doesn’t it? And it sounds to me like everybody supports the idea that it’s now or never for this program.

Where does your conspiracy fit into this? The guy has done an okay job, with some highs and lows… and now here we are, and people act like he’s been horrible his entire time here - that we’ve accomplished nothing compared to our back to back 7 win seasons before he showed up. Where would you have had good reason to let him go prior to this season? I’m curious.


In spite of what some believe, the test of success is an NCAA appearance. Ed is 0-7 and I am comfortable predicting 0-8 after this year. I have to admit the NIT run was impressive and without that George Mason shot by Battle, that would have been a one and done. However, that was an impressive run and Ed deserves some credit for that post season. Failing to make the big dance is like a baseball team not making the playoffs. Ed always says his goals for the team are to win the B10 and go to the NCAA tourney. Ed has not reached his own goals in 7 years (going on 8). When you fail to meet your goals in sports or business, it is time to move on and find success elsewhere.

#13

Frankly if the time comes this really would be the perfect time to let him go. The team will be awfully young and inexperienced once these seniors leave which basically would put us in the same position as if we had a new head coach. Ed will have had time to play with his guys and it makes sense to think if you can’t get it done with a very experienced starting lineup that it’s not going to get done any time soon. The question going through my mind is if our AD is complacent with an 11 win season last year will he be ok if the team wins, say 15 games where he could say the team definitely made strides from last season and hey we even made it to the NIT. That could be his excuse. It should be an all or nothing season.


#14
[quote="mhenry41, post:9, topic:1640"]If this season pans out in the fashion that your graphs suggest, it is safe to assume that 2010-11 would be Ed's last. Im stronglyconsidering a subscription to the theory that PSU just may be waiting until JoePa decides to retire before making a move. I doubt they want to hire a hoops coach that makes more than Joe. I've heard this theory more than a few times and I am almost inclined to believe it. I think if PSU has a dreadful conference season and Ed is retained, I think it is fair to assume that the aforementioned theory might have some substance to it.[/quote]

Okay - it’s “defend Ed” time.

There’s no conspiracy theory - Ed is around because they haven’t had good enough reason to let him go (yet). THIS would be the year that determines his future - find me a year before this one where you could have let him go and it would have made sense. Let’s walk through history together real quick…

His first 2 years are a joke because he had nothing to start with, and you have to give a rebuilding job more than 2 years. So he makes the NIT his 3rd year - a nice progression for 3 years. So he’s rewarded with an extension at this point, which almost any reasonable fan could support.

The following year became kind of a mess with only 11 wins, then he gets 15, then 27. I’d say that ought to buy him a little bit more time? Oh but wait we have another disappointing season last year, so that makes this year kind of it doesn’t it? And it sounds to me like everybody supports the idea that it’s now or never for this program.

Where does your conspiracy fit into this? The guy has done an okay job, with some highs and lows… and now here we are, and people act like he’s been horrible his entire time here - that we’ve accomplished nothing compared to our back to back 7 win seasons before he showed up. Where would you have had good reason to let him go prior to this season? I’m curious.


In spite of what some believe, the test of success is an NCAA appearance. Ed is 0-7 and I am comfortable predicting 0-8 after this year. I have to admit the NIT run was impressive and without that George Mason shot by Battle, that would have been a one and done. However, that was an impressive run and Ed deserves some credit for that post season. Failing to make the big dance is like a baseball team not making the playoffs. Ed always says his goals for the team are to win the B10 and go to the NCAA tourney. Ed has not reached his own goals in 7 years (going on 8). When you fail to meet your goals in sports or business, it is time to move on and find success elsewhere.

And if Kelly doesn’t hit a banked in 3 pointer, we dance instead, negating your entire criticism of him (and proving how lame a measuring stick that can be if it’s your ONLY qualifier and you add in zero context).

I’m sure Ed isn’t any happier about losing than you are. He sure as hell doesn’t look happy to me. The point I’m making is that we all thought we were headed in a good direction just less than 2 years ago… now things have gone south a bit on him and it’s probably time to make a change if he can’t right the ship this season. This is a season he earned, but it will be his last that he deserves if they don’t get it together.


#15

I don’t think anybody is complacent with an 11 win season - fans, players, coaches, or AD. But you don’t judge him based solely on one season, especially when the year before was a pretty big success for the program (relatively speaking).

Should Roy Williams be fired for his piss poor season last year? They were 16-16 in the regular season with an entire roster full of McDonald’s All-Americans… maybe that should indicate that expectations are extremely inflated for the PSU program - when a two-time NCAA champion coach with a roster full of the best talent in the country can only manage a slightly better record than us during a very disappointing season (even by PSU standards).


#16

I’m with you Craftsy that he has earned this season to show what the team can do with him at the helm. Now if we have a repeat of last season or if we don’t even make the NIT and he is retained for next season then I will be absolutely 100% behind firing Curley as well as Ed because that would be disgraceful.


#17

Agreed. I believe it’s NCAA or bust for Eddie. And since most people think the NCAA’s are completely unreachable now (i don’t, but it’s going to take nearly a miracle), I can understand feeling like it’s time to make a move. But this is his season as far as I’m concerned.


#18

while we’re playing the one shot game…

if it weren’t for Talor’s last second layup against Illinois…

if GT’s Shumpert had hit his 3ptr in Atlanta…


#19
[quote="Craftsy21, post:14, topic:1640"]And if Kelly doesn't hit a banked in 3 pointer, we dance instead, negating your entire criticism of him (and proving how lame a measuring stick that can be if it's your ONLY qualifier and you add in zero context).[/quote]

while we’re playing the one shot game…

if it weren’t for Talor’s last second layup against Illinois…

if GT’s Shumpert had hit his 3ptr in Atlanta…

Are you trying to prove my point or make your own?

Close games have a lot of these moments. Teams that come out on the good side most often have good records (psu 2 years ago), while teams that come out on the bad side more often don’t (psu last season). Don’t think we’re breaking any news in saying so.


#20

[quote=“Craftsy21, post:19, topic:1640”]Are you trying to prove my point or make your own?

Close games have a lot of these moments. Teams that come out on the good side most often have good records (psu 2 years ago), while teams that come out on the bad side more often don’t (psu last season). Don’t think we’re breaking any news in saying so.[/quote]

I guess I was trying to make a related point…I never understood why fans somehow count a close, often last second loss as being somehow not quite a loss, or an almost win…but never seem to count a close, last second win as less than a win, or an almost loss. As if the gods conspire against us in a loss, but never conspire for us in a win. The shots were just falling for VATech, instead of We didn’t play defense.