PennStateHoops.com Discussion Forum

Some random thoughts concerning stats and the schedule


#1

Just taking a closer look at the road ahead and our stats so far on Kenpom makes me realize a few things.

For one - we’ve improved a couple of games in his projections since before last night’s game, he now has us going 7-11 in conference and 16-13 overall. A 2-game improvement if I’m not mistaken. Granted it’s far too early for most of these numbers to mean much, but our defensive number is really cool looking next to our name right now regardless (#48 in the country in adjusted efficiency :smiley: )

I also saw that PSUStretch mentioned a few things about starting 3-0 -

[b]In 11 post-season appearances in the last 30 years, Penn State has started 3-0 in all but two (1989 NIT & 2001 NCAA).[/b] about 18 hours ago via HootSuite

Lions have reached the post-season each of the previous six times starting 3-0 in the Big Ten era: '95, '98, '00, '06, '09 NITs & 1996 NCAA.
about 18 hours ago via HootSuite

Lions up 57-35 with 3:57 to play. Book it! Third 3-0 start under Ed DeChellis, just the 7th in the Big Ten era.
about 18 hours ago via HootSuite

A good sign, if you’re into those kinds of things.

One thing that does have me a bit concerned is our upcoming schedule. In a 9 day span (November 26-December 4) we play 4 games, including a trip to Ole Miss on Friday night followed by a home game Sunday afternoon against Furman. Then we get Maryland on Wednesday and Duquesne on Saturday. Could really be the make or break week of the season, I wonder how Ed is going to handle practicing and substitutions that week. ???

And just as a head’s up… Ole Miss has a good test against Dayton today that should give us an indication of just what they are - might want to keep an eye on that final today, the game is at 7 PM. Still doesn’t look like there’s ANY chance of TV for this one. :-\


#2

I believe PSU has been pegged by KenPom at 16-11 since the beginning of the season… I could be wrong.


#3

Not sure noobd, i was pretty sure it had us with 2 more losses the other day. Looking at it, if I had to guess which ones changed it’s probably the Maryland and Michigan road game, which we’re just barely favored in.


#4

That’s not how he calculates the win total. He projects W-L record by totaling up the win % for each game.


#5
[quote="Craftsy21, post:3, topic:1526"]Not sure noobd, i was pretty sure it had us with 2 more losses the other day. Looking at it, if I had to guess which ones changed it's probably the Maryland and Michigan road game, which we're just barely favored in.[/quote]

That’s not how he calculates the win total. He projects W-L record by totaling up the win % for each game.

Correct. Or else the #1 team would be projected undefeated.


#6

Wow, I never realized how “in-the-middle-of-nowhere” the campus of Ole Miss is (Oxford, Mississippi). There is not an airport in Oxford and there is not a hub airport anywhere nearby. The population of Oxford is a little under 12,000 residents and hotwire.com only lists 1 hotel in the entire town. Wow, from only knowing this much about Oxford, it makes State College look like a major city.


#7
[quote="Craftsy21, post:3, topic:1526"]Not sure noobd, i was pretty sure it had us with 2 more losses the other day. Looking at it, if I had to guess which ones changed it's probably the Maryland and Michigan road game, which we're just barely favored in.[/quote]

That’s not how he calculates the win total. He projects W-L record by totaling up the win % for each game.

Regardless, do you know whether or not the win projection for us changed since the start of the season? I assume all of our percentages should move throughout the season, right?


#8
[quote="Craftsy21, post:3, topic:1526"]Not sure noobd, i was pretty sure it had us with 2 more losses the other day. Looking at it, if I had to guess which ones changed it's probably the Maryland and Michigan road game, which we're just barely favored in.[/quote]

That’s not how he calculates the win total. He projects W-L record by totaling up the win % for each game.

Regardless, do you know whether or not the win projection for us changed since the start of the season? I assume all of our percentages should move throughout the season, right?

Yes, we are up one game in conference. He predicted 6-12 preseason.

Yes, the percentages will change during the course of the season.


#9
[quote="Craftsy21, post:3, topic:1526"]Not sure noobd, i was pretty sure it had us with 2 more losses the other day. Looking at it, if I had to guess which ones changed it's probably the Maryland and Michigan road game, which we're just barely favored in.[/quote]

That’s not how he calculates the win total. He projects W-L record by totaling up the win % for each game.

Regardless, do you know whether or not the win projection for us changed since the start of the season? I assume all of our percentages should move throughout the season, right?

Yes, we are up one game in conference. He predicted 6-12 preseason.

Yes, the percentages will change during the course of the season.

I think at least 7 conference wins. But with any luck, 9. If Brooks continues to play like he’s playing, not the treys, but the rest, at least 9, IMO. Seems to me Oliver is good, his shot for real, the guard situation is good, with Frazier, Buie and Cam improving over the season. It’s kind of interesting when Frazier is in and Talor at the 2, and interesting when Talor’s at the 1, as it’s a different look. Then the 3 guard also. Teams will have some issues with this. And the perimeter D is very good, and Brooks has become a swatter, which allows the perimeter D to stretch. It’s early, and I have not been a Brooks fan(I thought he might be the guy out this year) but his play has never been close to this good. His last year’s early OOC doesn’t match up. He never blocked shots like this, this year he’s got 6 blocks, last year in 12 OOC games he had 4, 14 the entire 31 games. He’s got 27 rebounds in 3 games vs. 49 in 12 OOC games last year. IMO, Miss, Maryland and VTech will tell the tale. Imagine if we win 2 of those? Win 2 and go 9-9 and it’s a tourney bid. Beat VTech and 8-10 in conference might make it.


#10

Ole Miss was leading Dayton at the half 46-33, but then they were outscored 32-19 in the 2nd half and lost in overtime. did that give us an indication of what they are? Dayton is undefeated 3-0 with wins over Mt. St. Mary’s and Akron.


#11
[quote="Craftsy21, post:1, topic:1526"]And just as a head's up... Ole Miss has a good test against Dayton today that [b]should give us an indication of just what they are[/b] - might want to keep an eye on that final today, the game is at 7 PM. Still doesn't look like there's ANY chance of TV for this one. :-\[/quote]

Ole Miss was leading Dayton at the half 46-33, but then they were outscored 32-19 in the 2nd half and lost in overtime. did that give us an indication of what they are? Dayton is undefeated 3-0 with wins over Mt. St. Mary’s and Akron.

I do know that you could have thrown a small blanket over PSU, Dayton, and Mississippi and covered them all according to Pomeroy. Before Saturday’s games, he had Ole Miss at #48, PSU #49, and Dayton #52 (and noobd favorites Sston Hall at #47).


#12

And for anyone who didn’t see the Dayton/Miss game, Dayton won it in overtime after trailing for 37 minutes of regulation.


#13
[quote="Craftsy21, post:1, topic:1526"]And just as a head's up... Ole Miss has a good test against Dayton today that [b]should give us an indication of just what they are[/b] - might want to keep an eye on that final today, the game is at 7 PM. Still doesn't look like there's ANY chance of TV for this one. :-\[/quote]

Ole Miss was leading Dayton at the half 46-33, but then they were outscored 32-19 in the 2nd half and lost in overtime. did that give us an indication of what they are? Dayton is undefeated 3-0 with wins over Mt. St. Mary’s and Akron.

I do know that you could have thrown a small blanket over PSU, Dayton, and Mississippi and covered them all according to Pomeroy. Before Saturday’s games, he had Ole Miss at #48, PSU #49, and Dayton #52 (and noobd favorites Sston Hall at #47).

Same spread on KenPom, just with Dayton and Ole Miss swapping places (#47 Seton Hall, #48, Dayton, #49 PSU, #52 Mississippi).