PennStateHoops.com Discussion Forum

Some interesting numbers


#1

First of all, here’s a ranking of our games this season in order of the their tempo.

Every game that we’ve played where the possessions were under 60, we’ve won - and we lost three of the five fastest paced games. No wonder Ed likes to slow it down.

Here’s a ranking of the games based on our offensive efficiency, i.e. pts per possession.

We’ve had some losses, Michigan and Mississippi, where we’ve actually played pretty well on offense - and some wins, St Joe’s and Mt St Mary’s, where we didn’t.

And lastly, a ranking based on our defensive efficiency.

A pretty solid clustering there. When we play good D, we win. When we don’t, we lose. Really helps point out why some of keep pointing to defense as being the key to our winning or losing.


#2

Thanks lar, love these numbers. Would love to see some rebounding numbers thrown in there too, if you have them. Curious how that relates to our W/L this year, since it seems to get brought up a lot.


#3

Great stuff as usual Lar. Couldn’t agree more that are defense is what makes are team sucessful


#4

The site I got the numbers from only lists the offensive and total rebounds which, as I’ve mentioned several times, doesn’t paint as good a picture as the rebounding percentage numbers do. I’d have to crank them on my own (which I might do later since I’m curious too).


#5

I find it very interesting that our worse offensive games are also our fastest paced games. I wonder how much shot selection plays a role? Many here (myslef included) have argued that when we push the pace, we should get better looks, but this would suggest the opposite.

Of course, to underscore Lar’s point, look at Michigan. Fairly slow paced and high offensive efficient, but Defense was near the bottom.


#6

Something I noticed from the Illinois game…

Twice, very early on in the game (at least the first 10 minutes), Frazier had the ball in a fast break with only 1 Illinois guard back. Each time, Timmy did not really take a good drive, he pulled up in both instances.

He has a good handle, great elevation, and is a decent FT shooter (about 70%). So, it begs the question, why didn’t he take it to the rim? Is it because DeChelllis has talked to the team about slowing the game down? At the time, I thought it had to do with Timmy’s confidence. He was shooting 20% in the BIG TEN going into the game.


#7
[quote="UncleLar, post:1, topic:1765"]Every game that we've played where the possessions were under 60, we've won - and we lost three of the five fastest paced games. No wonder Ed likes to slow it down.[/quote]

Something I noticed from the Illinois game…

Twice, very early on in the game (at least the first 10 minutes), Frazier had the ball in a fast break with only 1 Illinois guard back. Each time, Timmy did not really take a good drive, he pulled up in both instances.

He has a good handle, great elevation, and is a decent FT shooter (about 70%). So, it begs the question, why didn’t he take it to the rim? Is it because DeChelllis has talked to the team about slowing the game down? At the time, I thought it had to do with Timmy’s confidence. He was shooting 20% in the BIG TEN going into the game.

I noticed this too and was hoping he would because in both instances, the guard back was McCamey with 1 foul. I guess he doesn’t think he’s strong enough to get the call?


#8
[quote="UncleLar, post:1, topic:1765"]Every game that we've played where the possessions were under 60, we've won - and we lost three of the five fastest paced games. No wonder Ed likes to slow it down.[/quote]

Something I noticed from the Illinois game…

Twice, very early on in the game (at least the first 10 minutes), Frazier had the ball in a fast break with only 1 Illinois guard back. Each time, Timmy did not really take a good drive, he pulled up in both instances.

He has a good handle, great elevation, and is a decent FT shooter (about 70%). So, it begs the question, why didn’t he take it to the rim? Is it because DeChelllis has talked to the team about slowing the game down? At the time, I thought it had to do with Timmy’s confidence. He was shooting 20% in the BIG TEN going into the game.

I noticed this too and was hoping he would because in both instances, the guard back was McCamey with 1 foul. I guess he doesn’t think he’s strong enough to get the call?

Noticed it also. What’s crazy is that Tim can elevate like Jeff when he wants, but I rarely see him use his hops to make plays. I’d love to see him get to the point where he feels comfortable driving right at the 1 defender back and just trying to out-leap him and make a play. 9/10 times you get the foul at least, but I think he’s athletic enough to finish it with a dunk more often than not.

The one time he did really use his leaping was on that last rebound he grabbed yesterday - man, did he sky for that thing. It’s a shame he’s maybe not a year older, if he had just another season under his belt and another off-season to work on his jumper a bit more, he would really make our offense dynamic. As it stands we’re still good, but in need of guys to keep stepping up. Would be good to see he, billy, and/or Cam all get it going offensively some of these nights to come.


#9

Offensive Rebounding Percentages (ranked from best to worst)
The red blocks are when our offensive rebounds fall below the less than half the opponents defensive rebounds.

While we won the top four offensive rebounding games that we had, we also won a couple of our worst efforts too.

[hr]

Defensive Rebounding Percentages (ranked from best to worst)
The red blocks are when our defensive rebounds fail to top twice our opponents offensive rebounds.

There is a much higher correlation here. We’ve won the rebounding effort on the defensive boards in eight games and have won seven of them. We’ve lost the battle eight times and have lost five of those games - and our two worst defensive rebounding efforts were clearly our two worst games too.

For the season, we are right on the 1:2 ratio on the offensive boards and are running above the 2:1 number on the defensive side of the equation.

While we are nowhere near the top defensive rebounding team in the country like we were last year, we are still a very respectable 86th.

[hr]

Rebounding Margin

On the other hand, that stat that I do disparage so much, rebounding margin, does show a very high correlation to winning. We are 8-1 when we win the battle, and 1-6 when we lose it.


#10

How many minutes do you think Cam will play at Ohio St? Do you think he is best served at the 3 with both Battle and Frazier on the floor or as a shooting guard with either Battle or Frazier at the point? He doesn’t need to force 3’s. He’s better when he spots up for a 3 in the rhythm of the offensive. He can also make mid-range jump shots. I bet Frazier could find him open if he is at the point. If OSU’s guards play Frazier and Battle tight, unless Oliver is out there, he may be the best perimeter shooter coming off the bench. If he comes in at the SF position, then OSU has to either stretch out to contain him on the perimeter or stay down low.


#11

I think slowing it down allows our team to get some more rest while playing which helps when you have as thin of a bench as PSU has.


#12

It also helps with the foul situation. Less possessions, less chance of getting in foul trouble.


#13
[quote="UncleLar, post:1, topic:1765"]Every game that we've played where the possessions were under 60, we've won - and we lost three of the five fastest paced games. No wonder Ed likes to slow it down.[/quote]

Something I noticed from the Illinois game…

Twice, very early on in the game (at least the first 10 minutes), Frazier had the ball in a fast break with only 1 Illinois guard back. Each time, Timmy did not really take a good drive, he pulled up in both instances.

He has a good handle, great elevation, and is a decent FT shooter (about 70%). So, it begs the question, why didn’t he take it to the rim? Is it because DeChelllis has talked to the team about slowing the game down? At the time, I thought it had to do with Timmy’s confidence. He was shooting 20% in the BIG TEN going into the game.

I don’t think he believes that he can finish. It’s not just on the break. He pulls up his drives at 10 foot then looks around for someone to pass to. Whatever happened to the pullup J that he worked on with Joe Crispin? My wife walked by the tv while I was watching the Ill game and saw him do it and she asked my why he stopped his drive and didn’t even shoot.

#14

I just don’t think he has a scorers mentality. I agree with Skeeza that he NEEDS to force the issue when he’s got 1 guy to beat…I don’t think there is a guard in the conference that can match his quickness or elevation. Plus, as you mentioned, he can knock down foul shots.

Jakkl, I think he’s used that pull up elbow jumper a lot lately. Contrary to what Craftsy spews, Tim is a bad shooter and there isn’t a whole of reason to think he’s secretly a good shooter. His form isn’t good and it just looks awkward leaving his hand. It’s like he bends his upperbody into a pretzel and then flicks it out. I’m still glad he’s taking the elbow jumper because I think it will go in once in a while which is good and it will make people guard him. I really like his floater though, I wish he’d do that more often. He missed it against Illinois but it looked pretty. Nice soft shot and no awkwardess about it.

I’m not bashing Tim either (just his jumpshot). But if he plays with the same energy the rest of the season as he did against the Illini, he’ll be fine. I loved watching him work hard on D…he’s let too many guys go by him to warrant not scoring anything. I hope he keeps it up!


#15

I have been studying the stats…I’m pretty sure …When we score more points than the other team we win…

Still working on other theories!

I will pull a comparison from the great one (JoePa.) I have heard Joe many times in the past saw something to the extend that you can’t separate stats. Offense - defense. They are related and must be considered in this content. Also the opponent must be considered in their ability and style of play.

Stats are DATA…pieces of puzzles. One corner of the puzzle DOES NOT make the entire puzzle!!


#16
[quote="JakkL, post:13, topic:1765"]I don't think he believes that he can finish. It's not just on the break. He pulls up his drives at 10 foot then looks around for someone to pass to. Whatever happened to the pullup J that he worked on with Joe Crispin? My wife walked by the tv while I was watching the Ill game and saw him do it and she asked my why he stopped his drive and didn't even shoot.[/quote]

I just don’t think he has a scorers mentality. I agree with Skeeza that he NEEDS to force the issue when he’s got 1 guy to beat…I don’t think there is a guard in the conference that can match his quickness or elevation. Plus, as you mentioned, he can knock down foul shots.

Jakkl, I think he’s used that pull up elbow jumper a lot lately. Contrary to what Craftsy spews, Tim is a bad shooter and there isn’t a whole of reason to think he’s secretly a good shooter. His form isn’t good and it just looks awkward leaving his hand. It’s like he bends his upperbody into a pretzel and then flicks it out. I’m still glad he’s taking the elbow jumper because I think it will go in once in a while which is good and it will make people guard him. I really like his floater though, I wish he’d do that more often. He missed it against Illinois but it looked pretty. Nice soft shot and no awkwardess about it.

I’m not bashing Tim either (just his jumpshot). But if he plays with the same energy the rest of the season as he did against the Illini, he’ll be fine. I loved watching him work hard on D…he’s let too many guys go by him to warrant not scoring anything. I hope he keeps it up!

I’m becoming convinced you don’t even watch the games. His foul shot is silky-smooth looking, one of the softest on the team. His mid-range shot isn’t that far off from that form. It’s his spot-up shot that always looks ugly, for whatever reason. Completely changes his form on it and almost looks to be pushing the ball.

Let too many guys go by him? He’s been our best defender all season long, and that’s playing mostly ON THE BALL which is so tough at this level. Just because you finally took a closer look at the stats doesn’t mean he hasn’t been killing it on defense all year long.

On top of that, he’s up to 65th in the country right now in that assist rate number I speak of. He’s a huge part of our offense because of what doesn’t show up on the stat sheet - meaning, Talor gets to play off the ball. Anytime Tim sits Talor has to dribble the ball for at least 20 seconds of any given possession. I’m not sure what our +/- numbers look like with him sitting vs him playing, but if nothing else it’s wearing our best player down and keeping our best passer and defender on the bench.

Does THAT warrant him not getting many points this year? I’d say yes. But I guess when all you take the time to ever focus on is PPG you probably wouldn’t come to that conclusion.


#17
On the other hand, that stat that I do disparage so much, rebounding margin, does show a very high correlation to winning. We are 8-1 when we win the battle, and 1-6 when we lose it.

Thanks for putting that together lar. I think that margin number is mostly meaningless also but interesting that it seems so well tied to our performance. Probably more the result of other numbers like poor shooting from us, giving the other team a lot more defensive rebounds.


#18

I glance at tempo free stats, that’s about it. I’m thankful for having a guy like Lar around because he makes it easy for me. :slight_smile:

Tim killed it against McCamey for sure! He’s had a problem with staying in front of a lot of other guys he’s guarded. I know it’s hard to believe because he’s got unreal quickness AND speed and it looks like he wants to play good D, but he’s gotten beat A LOT. And that’s ok because I think he’s going to be a really good defender, he definitely has the tools and it seems he has the desire…he just needs the experience. He’ll get there. :slight_smile:

(besides even if he has been our best defender, which I disagree with, does that really say anything?)

But I guess when all you take the time to ever focus on is PPG you probably wouldn't come to that conclusion.

Not really, I even ended my post saying if he plays that way (against illini) I have no problem with him scoring an egg every game.

I like Tim, but he’s got some things to work on if he wants to be the player you make him out to be.


#19
[quote="Craftsy21, post:16, topic:1765"]Let too many guys go by him? He's been our best defender all season long, and that's playing mostly ON THE BALL which is so tough at this level. Just because you finally took a closer look at the stats doesn't mean he hasn't been killing it on defense all year long.[/quote]

I glance at tempo free stats, that’s about it. I’m thankful for having a guy like Lar around because he makes it easy for me. :slight_smile:

Tim killed it against McCamey for sure! He’s had a problem with staying in front of a lot of other guys he’s guarded. I know it’s hard to believe because he’s got unreal quickness AND speed and it looks like he wants to play good D, but he’s gotten beat A LOT. And that’s ok because I think he’s going to be a really good defender, he definitely has the tools and it seems he has the desire…he just needs the experience. He’ll get there. :slight_smile:

(besides even if he has been our best defender, which I disagree with, does that really say anything?)

But I guess when all you take the time to ever focus on is PPG you probably wouldn't come to that conclusion.

Not really, I even ended my post saying if he plays that way (against illini) I have no problem with him scoring an egg every game.

I like Tim, but he’s got some things to work on if he wants to be the player you make him out to be.

crankypants…gotta love it ;D

#20
(besides even if he has been our best defender, which I disagree with, does that really say anything?)

Fair enough, but I do believe he’s a legitimately good defender and have not seen him getting beat much at all this year, for as closely as I started watching him since early in the season.

Maybe our idea of “getting beat” differs a great deal.