PennStateHoops.com Discussion Forum

Saturday's Games of Note


#1

Here are the games that I’m keeping my eye on today…

Bubble Games (who I want to win is in BOLD)
12pm - Missouri at Kansas State - Kansas St would probably need a pretty big collapse at this point to miss out, but their next 2 are tough ones (next is @ Texas)

12pm - James Madison at VCU - Certainly a longshot for JMU to go in there and pull it out, but it would help the bubble tremendously if they do, as VCU is in Palm’s last 4 in right now.

12pm - Boston College at Virginia -Boston College would probably be in the field if the tourney started today, however they are 3-7 in their last 10 and certainly don’t want a loss to a team in the 130s of the RPI. Note that Virginia is actually a 2.5 point favorite in this one.

1pm - Wichita St at Missouri State - No clue what we want here. Both teams have pretty identical profiles, and the winner will wrap up the Valley. That usually means a bid if they slip up in the conference tourney, but I don’t think so this year.

1:45pm - Nebraska at Iowa State - Nebraska has no margain of error, and they are a slight underdog in this one. Hopefully Iowa St can knock them completely out of it.

2pm - Miami at Florida State - FSU is looking pretty good, however this might be their easiest game left and they could certainly drop their last two (NC and @NCSt).

2pm - Loyola (Chi) @ Butler - Longshot that Butler drops this one, but a loss would possibly end any at-large hopes for the Horizon.

2pm - Wisconsin Green-Bay at Cleveland State - Cleveland St is a longshot to get an at-large bid, however it wouldn’t hurt to completely end their hopes today.


#2

Nebraska is in the same boat PSU was 2 years ago.


#3

3pm - Memphis @ UTEP - Memphis is starting to come around and might look good if they can take care of business down the stretch. A loss here would certainly hurt their case.

4pm - Arizona at UCLA - UCLA is looking good today, but has 3 games left that could go either way (after this, it’s the trip to play both Washington schools). A win today might be enough to get them in.

4pm - Wake Forest at Clemson - Thought about not even wasting my time with this one. Wake is horrible, but a loss here would be crippling to Clemson.

4pm - Drexel at Towson - See my note on the last game. Drexel isn’t going to lose today, but a loss would completely knock them out. At least Towson gets this one at home.

4pm - Alabama at Mississippi - Alabama has a great SEC record, but it still might not be enough. An Ole Miss win has the added benefit of helping our RPI.

4pm - Colorado at Texas - Colorado still has a lot of work to do, but a win at Texas would be a huge start. Don’t want them to get the chance to get back in the mix.

4:30 - Michigan at Minnesota - Could argue either way in this one, but I think Minnesota winning does us more good, as it knocks Michigan further out of it and also helps us with tiebreakers in seeding for Indy.


#4

6pm - Mississippi State at Tennessee - It’ll be tough to Tennessee to get knocked out with all of their quality wins. However, this is the easiest game they have left and a loss here could start another slide. Probably a stretch to even put them on here.

6pm - UAB at Houston - I really don’t think UAB can get back in the mix, but winning out until the CUSA title game might be enough. A loss today could end their hopes.

6:30pm - Colorado State at Air Force - Colorado St is in Palm’s bracket as of today as a 12 seed. They certainly aren’t safe, and a loss today would certainly help us. They’re a 3.5 point favorite, however I see an upset in this one.

7pm - South Carolina at Georgia - Georgia is pretty safe still, but it wouldn’t hurt for them to take a bad loss on their home floor. Unfortunately, they’d probably have to lose at home to LSU later this week as well to really fall onto the bubble.

7pm - Iowa at Illinois - An Iowa win would hurt us from an RPI perspective, however I think it’s worth it to drop Illinois further down the pecking order. Seems pretty unlikely for Illinois to drop this one, but Iowa has looked better the last few weeks.

7pm - Richmond at Charlotte - Richmond is in Palm’s bracket, but I don’t their resume looks that good (ok, that may be true of a lot of bubble teams). A loss at a sub-200 RPI team would really hurt them. And I think Charlotte can beat them tonight.


#5

7pm - Southern Miss at UCF - Southern Miss doesn’t have a great resume, but winning CUSA and making the finals of the CUSA tourney might be enough. UCF appears to have awoken from their hibernation, and are a slight favorite tonight.

9pm - Idaho at Utah State - Another one that I’m wasting my time with. A loss by Utah State ends it for them, but they aren’t losing again to Idaho.

9pm - San Diego at Gonzaga - See the last game. Gonzaga isn’t losing, but a loss would probably do them in.

9pm - Duke at Virginia Tech - A VT win would help our RPI, but it also would put them on the right side of the bubble. I’ll take the RPI hit and a loss.

9pm - Texas A&M at Baylor - Baylor has a terrible RPI and is on the wrong side of the bubble right now. They have the talent to play themselves back into it, and a win today would be a big step for them.


#6

10pm - Wyoming at UNLV - UNLV might be safe if they lose out, and they aren’t losing to Wyoming tonight. But, I guess there is always a chance, and losses to Wyoming and Utah to finish out with a first round loss at the MWC tourney certainly wouldn’t look good.

11pm - Portland at St. Mary’s - St Mary’s should win this one, however a loss would really, really hurt them as it would give them 4 straight losses.

In non-bubble games, 6 of our other opponents are in action today. Furman is home against Wofford (2pm) in a tossup. CCSU plays at LIU (2pm) in a game they’ll probably lose. Mt St Mary’s is at St Francis (PA) (7pm) in one that they’ll likely drop. The three bigger ones involving our opponents are…

4pm - Lehigh @ Holy Cross - A win here would help Lehigh with seeding in the Patriot, and it might also be enough to move them back into the top 200 of the RPI.

4pm - St Bonnie’s at St Joe’s - A win here would definately move St Joe’s into the top 200. It’s a little thing, but our record against the top 200 isn’t looking good, so we’ll take all the help we can get.

8pm - Duquesne at St Louis - Duquesne needs this one, as a weak finish will drop them out of the top 100. Since they’re one of our best non-conference wins, we need that win to look as good as possible.

Hopefully we get some good results today. With no PSU game to follow, I needed to invest my energy into something.


#7

Thanks Frats for doing the research and giving me teams to root for all day.


#8

Kansas State and Boston College both got wins, but James Madison pulled the upset over VCU.


#9

Wow! Well done, NostraTomas! Just like PSU went to Iowa and lost in OT two years ago, tossing us off the bubble, Nebraska goes to Iowa and loses to Iowa State in OT, 83-82. Very good news for PSU!

Kudos to Tom for the jinx :wink:


#10
[quote="Tom, post:2, topic:2001"]Nebraska is in the same boat PSU was 2 years ago.[/quote]

Wow! Well done, NostraTomas! Just like PSU went to Iowa and lost in OT two years ago, tossing us off the bubble, Nebraska goes to Iowa and loses to Iowa State in OT, 83-82. Very good news for PSU!

Kudos to Tom for the jinx :wink:

I was going more with the “strong record, weak RPI, weak SOS” resume, but that works too :slight_smile:


#11

Not sure if any of you saw the end of Iowa St-Nebraska, but the Cyclones really blew it in regulation. 5 seconds left up 3 and they decided not to foul. We all know what happens in that situation. Thankfully, they pulled it our in OT.

Colorado has taken the lead on Texas, up 5 with 8 minutes left. I really don’t want to see them back in the picture.


#12

For purposes of tie-breaker scenarios, we really need Minny to hold on and beat Michigan. Up 1 w/ 4 minutes left.


#13

What a little run there by Michigan…looks like they are going to win. Hopefully, MSU can knock off Michigan in their B10 regular season finale next Saturday.


#14

When did Nolen go down? They are like 1-7 in last 8. Someone pulled the stopper out of the Tub.


#15

That road game at Minnesota is looking really winnable. Completely falling apart without Nolan.


#16

Anyone who still has Minny in the tourney should have their credentials taken away…Oh but they beat WVU and UNC in November. Enough already…1-7 in their last 8. PSU needs to drive the nail into their coffin. In fact, by then it might actually look like a “bad loss” game.


#17

Definitely winnable, but won’t be easy. They’ve been playing a lot of close games, even if they aren’t winning. It will be tough at The Barn, but I think the seniors are ready to pick up a ‘w’ there.


#18

Per rpiforecast.com’s Live RPI, here’s how we shape up with Minnesota and Michigan

Team/RPI/SOS
PSU/52/7
Michigan/53/19
Minnesota/59/33

Btw…if anyone is curious, Alabama has an RPI of 88 with an SOS of 136. They just have a nice looking record of 19-9.


#19

The worst part of this whole thing are now these talking heads on the BTN are talking up Michigan like this win of there’s was on par with going down to Cameron Indoor and scoring a win. Minnesota is a shell of what they once were and while it is a good win, it shouldn’t put them “in” the tourney.

Win at home vs MSU and then Michigan will have something to hang their hat on.

BTW, Michigan misses playing at Purdue and home vs Illinois. At least one more loss there, if not two depending on when they would have played Illinois. So if they do finish with an 8-10 record (losing to MSU), I don’t see how they should get a bid.

If PSU can put Minny to bed and Michigan loses to MSU, PSU should have the upper hand on both these teams, regardless of what happens in the OSU game.

If those two things happen then here are the probable records…

PSU 9-9 missing Iowa/Indiana (if they lose to OSU)
Michigan 8-10 missing Purdue/Illinois
Minnesota 7-11 missing Illinois/Wisconsin (if they win at NW)

That’s why if PSU wins their remaining two games, they should be as close to a lock as there is. 10-5 in the Big Ten with Jeff Brooks and 5-1 finish speaks volumes if you ask me.


#20

I gotta say, like our games with Michigan, I’m watching the Minny game and my eyeballs are saying Minny should win. Right up to about 1:30 left, and all of a sudden Michigan is up five with a few seconds left. Remember the stat that we were one of the luckiest teamsntwo years ago? I’d like to know where Michigan stands this year.