PennStateHoops.com Discussion Forum

Saturday Bubble Talk


#1

thought I would start a new thread since the others got cluttered

our chances are better than they were yesterday because of the win but we did not get a lot of help from around the country…if a few games had popped right yesterday, I think we would definitely be in right now but we still hold our fate in our hands

things to look for today

Utah State to win the WAC and clinch the auto-bid
Kentucky to blow out Bama…Bama is the team that seems closest to us on all the brackets, need them to look bad ala BC yesterday
UNC to blow out Clemson…see above
Temple to beat Richmond
Memphis over UTEP…CUSA is probably a one bid team despite their high RPI (due in large part to UCF’s amazing start of the season), Memphis is the better at large bubble candidate so root for them over UTEP


#2

also root for harvard over princeton…if we want to use rpi in our argument, harvard’s rpi is better than ours and who knows if the selection committee will go sentimental over sending two ivys


#3

Palm now has us in according to his latest bracket on http://www.collegerpi.com/cy/ncaanon.html

fox loves us (owner of the big ten network, maybe biased?)

at Denver
7 Old Dominion The Monarchs take a nine-game winning streak into the NCAA tournament.
10 Penn State I had Penn State in before it beat Wisconsin and now everyone is jumping on board after the Nittany Lions picked up their second RPI top-25 and fourth top-50 win.
2 BYU Jimmer Fredette is prepared to carry this team on his back.
15 St. Peter’s St. Peter’s upset Iona in the MAAC final to clinch its first berth since 1995.


#4

Just get a win today and not have to deal with bubbles or play-in games.


#5

re: Palm’s bracket…Clemson has ZERO top 50 wins. No major conference school should be even sniffing the tourney w/o any top-50 wins.


#6

I was just going to post this. What’s more, Alabama has a 3-9 record vs the top 50, has an RPI of 81 (!!!), and a SOS below 100. I don’t get how they’re still in consideration.


#7

I love all the numbers some of these talking heads bring up sometimes… like that guy on the post game BTN show last night talking about how we weren’t over .500 against top 100 opponents… as if no other bubble teams had the same problem. Hell, almost EVERY bubble team has that problem.

Just seems like most of the people they put on TV to talk about brackets have no idea how it actually works, or just what the typical resume of a team on the bubble looks like in any given year - outside of Joey Brackets, who some think is mailing it in this year also.


#8

Don’t waste your energy on that one. There is zero chance that Harvard gets in with a loss today.


#9

I really think Alabama is still on the outside looking in. Another loss today and I think they’re staying home.

I also don’t get too concerned with margain of victory this time of year. Just get the results, that’s what really matters. Style points are important in football, but never seem to be the deciding factor when it comes to an at-large bid (thankfully).


#10

Still don’t get the Illini being in despite being done in the BTT. Why would we be a question mark if they’re not?


#11

So Joey Brackets has us as one of the last four in as of now. If we lose today are we prob out? Haven’t had time to turn on the tube or read anything today


#12

Palm is the guy that I trust the most. He reminds me of Nate Silver at 538. All about getting it right, not winning some punditry prize. If he has us at or near the end, then that’s where we are.


#13

[quote=“tjb, post:12, topic:2104”]Palm is the guy that I trust the most. He reminds me of Nate Silver at 538. All about getting it right, not winning some punditry prize. If he has us at or near the end, then that’s where we are.[/quote]From what I saw on the other sites he had us out after the game last night but had us back in this morning. I’m guessing its safe to say we prob still need the W today to get in


#14

Jay Bilas is not a fan. Thinks GA is better than PSU based on his eye test.


#15

Fortunately I have faith in the committee to understand that the tournament is for the 37 best at-large teams based on what they’ve accomplished this season, not on what kind of potential they have in the tournament. These 3 boneheads talk every year about who has better players and could they win a first round game. It doesn’t matter, the tournament is a reward for achieving during the regular season, not some kind of preseason ranking based on what you COULD do with another game given to you.

I think we’re close either way today.


#16
Palm is the guy that I trust the most. He reminds me of Nate Silver at 538. All about getting it right, not winning some punditry prize. If he has us at or near the end, then that's where we are.
From what I saw on the other sites he had us out after the game last night but had us back in this morning. I'm guessing its safe to say we prob still need the W today to get in

I don’t think that’s necessarily the case, but I don’t think we are anywhere near safely in. I love the analysis so many other people are doing, but I haven’t done it. As long as we’re where we are, we will be relying on outside factors to find a chair when the music stops (no upsets in the tournaments that get some current outsiders in, or some weird run where nearly all the other bubble teams have ridiculously notable or high RPI impact victories in the next few days). In 2001, we were safely in before the BTT, I believed.


#17

Correct me Lar if I’m wrong, but in 2001 we needed a late tip-in against Michigan just to make the MSU game. Common wisdom was that a loss to UM there would have put out “out”. By winning the MSU game that put is fully in the field as an eventual 10 seed.


#18

THat’s how I remember it also Mark, but it’s very foggy at this point.


#19

Common wisdom was probably wrong (of course, we’ll never know). We had a very strong resume even without the tip in against UM, although that andnthe great MSU victory definitely sealed the deal.


#20

In 2001 Penn State was a 7-seed.