Results: UMBC


#1

Congratulations to battlesway2 for winning in his first attempt!

1 battlesway2 1 9 11% 8.544
2 ngameday 9 9 100% 8.246 15.000 25.612 19.416 9.220 19.235 8.246 26.420 11.402
3 oldtownclub 2 9 22% 7.071 12.649
4 devon 9 9 100% 13.928 3.162 13.892 17.263 9.220 15.811 6.708 29.967 13.892
5 pennstateno1 8 9 89% 3.162 7.280 19.698 10.770 15.620 3.162 26.077 13.892
6 laodan 7 9 78% 8.062 24.597 3.606 19.723 2.236 39.051 14.422
7 blue2blue 8 9 89% 5.385 2.236 20.025 12.369 18.439 5.000 24.413 19.105
8 finding forrester 9 9 100% 6.325 14.036 23.537 16.492 14.318 19.849 10.050 24.698 21.213
9 GROUP 7 9 78% 5.140 3.064 23.117 14.791 9.434 17.205 3.162 28.425 21.401
10 mhenry41 9 9 100% 15.000 9.220 22.136 15.811 12.042 18.358 3.162 25.000 22.825
11 whiteout 8 9 89% 3.606 25.000 28.284 20.125 30.000 12.083 38.275 23.022
12 lpcreation 9 9 100% 9.434 13.342 21.024 11.402 9.220 29.155 16.279 37.802 23.431
13 eric17 9 9 100% 13.892 7.071 19.799 8.062 9.055 16.971 2.000 18.601 23.431
14 larryh 8 9 89% 5.000 3.162 16.125 21.587 16.125 2.000 30.000 23.770
15 POMEROY 8 9 89% 14.866 14.765 25.080 7.616 17.000 10.817 28.018 24.413
16 ronb89 9 9 100% 8.602 9.055 19.799 14.765 13.928 24.515 5.831 9.487 25.495
17 kidcoyote 3 9 33% 3.606 22.472 25.495
18 danlauver 6 9 67% 18.974 12.649 14.765 5.657 46.861 25.554
19 tundra 9 9 100% 6.000 8.944 25.710 8.246 5.000 15.652 6.403 17.493 25.612
20 craftsy21 7 9 78% 4.243 16.125 17.493 15.811 10.296 19.105 25.942
21 psugrad83 8 9 89% 2.236 9.899 22.804 12.369 12.649 7.071 31.828 26.249
22 joema 4 9 44% 12.042 10.770 17.000 26.401
23 nittanyillini 8 9 89% 23.431 5.385 22.023 12.042 17.117 15.620 30.610 27.586
24 mjg 6 9 67% 3.606 7.280 23.854 10.630 23.854 28.231
25 jyd 7 9 78% 8.000 29.411 9.220 15.524 4.123 36.892 28.601
26 jjepsu92 9 9 100% 23.854 4.123 24.166 17.088 7.211 14.866 19.209 39.051 28.844
27 bstanf 9 9 100% 4.123 9.220 18.439 24.083 12.207 24.839 6.708 27.459 29.833
28 slash 7 9 78% 4.123 2.236 14.866 14.866 5.099 25.495 29.833
29 bleedpsu 6 9 67% 2.236 24.698 17.804 2.236 31.828 30.000
30 tjm78 2 9 22% 31.401 30.265
31 duff 8 9 89% 11.045 15.000 11.705 10.000 17.804 11.180 27.586 30.414
32 greatsantini 1 9 11% 31.385
33 stateforlife 5 9 56% 2.000 18.358 13.601 6.403 32.016
34 friznitz5 7 9 78% 1.000 2.828 22.472 18.111 14.560 21.932 36.401
35 speed 9 9 100% 14.142 5.099 21.024 15.133 17.088 10.198 3.162 24.207 36.715

Overall Standings:

1 pennstateno1 8 9 89% 3.162 7.280 19.698 10.770 15.620 3.162 26.077 13.892 12.458
2 eric17 9 9 100% 13.892 7.071 19.799 8.062 9.055 16.971 2.000 18.601 23.431 13.209
3 tundra 9 9 100% 6.000 8.944 25.710 8.246 5.000 15.652 6.403 17.493 25.612 13.229
4 blue2blue 8 9 89% 5.385 2.236 20.025 12.369 18.439 5.000 24.413 19.105 13.372
5 devon 9 9 100% 13.928 3.162 13.892 17.263 9.220 15.811 6.708 29.967 13.892 13.760
6 slash 7 9 78% 4.123 2.236 14.866 14.866 5.099 25.495 29.833 13.788
7 ronb89 9 9 100% 8.602 9.055 19.799 14.765 13.928 24.515 5.831 9.487 25.495 14.609
8 larryh 8 9 89% 5.000 3.162 16.125 21.587 16.125 2.000 30.000 23.770 14.721
9 craftsy21 7 9 78% 4.243 16.125 17.493 15.811 10.296 19.105 25.942 15.573
10 psugrad83 8 9 89% 2.236 9.899 22.804 12.369 12.649 7.071 31.828 26.249 15.638
11 ngameday 9 9 100% 8.246 15.000 25.612 19.416 9.220 19.235 8.246 26.420 11.402 15.866
12 mhenry41 9 9 100% 15.000 9.220 22.136 15.811 12.042 18.358 3.162 25.000 22.825 15.950
13 laodan 7 9 78% 8.062 24.597 3.606 19.723 2.236 39.051 14.422 15.957
14 mjg 6 9 67% 3.606 7.280 23.854 10.630 23.854 28.231 16.242
15 speed 9 9 100% 14.142 5.099 21.024 15.133 17.088 10.198 3.162 24.207 36.715 16.308
16 finding forrester 9 9 100% 6.325 14.036 23.537 16.492 14.318 19.849 10.050 24.698 21.213 16.724
17 friznitz5 7 9 78% 1.000 2.828 22.472 18.111 14.560 21.932 36.401 16.758
18 duff 8 9 89% 11.045 15.000 11.705 10.000 17.804 11.180 27.586 30.414 16.842
19 bstanf 9 9 100% 4.123 9.220 18.439 24.083 12.207 24.839 6.708 27.459 29.833 17.435
20 POMEROY 8 9 89% 14.866 14.765 25.080 7.616 17.000 10.817 28.018 24.413 17.822
21 GROUP 7 9 78% 5.140 3.064 23.117 14.791 9.434 17.205 3.162 28.425 21.401 17.963
22 bleedpsu 6 9 67% 2.236 24.698 17.804 2.236 31.828 30.000 18.134
23 jyd 7 9 78% 8.000 29.411 9.220 15.524 4.123 36.892 28.601 18.824
24 lpcreation 9 9 100% 9.434 13.342 21.024 11.402 9.220 29.155 16.279 37.802 23.431 19.010
25 nittanyillini 8 9 89% 23.431 5.385 22.023 12.042 17.117 15.620 30.610 27.586 19.227
26 jjepsu92 9 9 100% 23.854 4.123 24.166 17.088 7.211 14.866 19.209 39.051 28.844 19.824
27 danlauver 6 9 67% 18.974 12.649 14.765 5.657 46.861 25.554 20.743
28 whiteout 8 9 89% 3.606 25.000 28.284 20.125 30.000 12.083 38.275 23.022 22.549

Quick confirmation: bem is now stateforlife

-This round had the second highest turnout
-Look how close the group is with pomeroy


#2

That is very interesting. I would think if a bunch of knowledgable hoops fans got together and predicted scores, they might get close to a little more scientific predictor (given enough data points). But given our lean toward PSU, I’d expect us as a group to be much worse than Pomeroy. Maybe by the end of the season that will be true. Or maybe enough of us are picking with our brains and not our hearts (I’m not one of those). I’ll be watching with more interest now.


#3

Sweet, into the top 5!


#4

Correct, sir.


#5
[quote="mhenry41, post:1, topic:452"]-Look how close the group is with pomeroy[/quote]

That is very interesting. I would think if a bunch of knowledgable hoops fans got together and predicted scores, they might get close to a little more scientific predictor (given enough data points). But given our lean toward PSU, I’d expect us as a group to be much worse than Pomeroy. Maybe by the end of the season that will be true. Or maybe enough of us are picking with our brains and not our hearts (I’m not one of those). I’ll be watching with more interest now.

That was my call when I first started putting Pomeroy’s picks up.

Discloser. Pomeroy hasn’t started to make his predictions on his site yet so I suspect that he doesn’t consider his power rankings as settled in enough to do that. That doesn’t stop me from using his methodology though. At the end of the season, we’ll have to take a look and see how he would have done if I had just waited (he does appear to be gradually creeping up the standings).


#6
[quote="mhenry41, post:1, topic:452"]-Look how close the group is with pomeroy[/quote]

That is very interesting. I would think if a bunch of knowledgable hoops fans got together and predicted scores, they might get close to a little more scientific predictor (given enough data points). But given our lean toward PSU, I’d expect us as a group to be much worse than Pomeroy. Maybe by the end of the season that will be true. Or maybe enough of us are picking with our brains and not our hearts (I’m not one of those). I’ll be watching with more interest now.

That was my call when I first started putting Pomeroy’s picks up.

Discloser. Pomeroy hasn’t started to make his predictions on his site yet so I suspect that he doesn’t consider his power rankings as settled in enough to do that. That doesn’t stop me from using his methodology though. At the end of the season, we’ll have to take a look and see how he would have done if I had just waited (he does appear to be gradually creeping up the standings).

FTR - effective today, Pomeroy has started making predictions on his site so I can assume that he feels that he now has enough data to be statistically accurate. Let’s see how everyone does against him from now on out. If my expectations are correct, he’ll be hard to beat between now and the end of the season.


#7

The bad news on Pomeroy’s picks is that he has PSU going 4-14 in the Big Ten, and only gives us a >50% chance of winning 2 of our Big Ten games.


#8

I hate to say it, but unless we have another guy or two really step up, I’d say 4-14 sounds about right. :frowning: