Quick Look: How does PSU get to .500


#1

I must preface the remainder of this post by saying that I am not predicting such a thing will happen. I did want to look at how it could/would be possible.

PSU would have to finish the B10 slate at home by going 6-1 and on the road by going 3-5. Lets take a look at the 9 most statistically probable games for a PSU win.

72% Indiana (Certainly a winnable contest at the BJC)
52% @ Iowa (Again, winnable, but Iowa has hung tough @ home a few times so far)
51% Northwestern (Again, winnable. Couldnt rule this out)
39% Illinois (This makes 2night’s game huge)
29% Ohio State (OSU has been poor without Turner…but both games are later in the sked)
27% @ Michigan (Revenge…)
26% Michigan State (Tough one here…)
24% @ Northwestern (PSU always wins at NW, but they appear to be different for a change)
23% Minnesota (Hung tough with them at the barn…)

There are a few toughies on there, but can we totally rule out stealing one or two that nobody thinks PSU can win?


#2

Are you taking these percentages from Kenpom? They didn’t match exactly, but were extremely close.

I can’t see this team reaching .500:
Currently 8-7

@ Illinois - Loss 8-8
@ Iowa - Win 9-8
Indiana - Win 10-8
@ Wisky - Loss 10-9
Illinois - Toss up **
@ Purdue - Loss 10-10
@ OSU - Loss 10-11
Minnesota - Toss up **
MSU - Loss 10-12
@ NW - Loss 10-13
@ Michigan - Toss up**
OSU - Loss 10-14
NW - Toss up **
@ MSU - Loss 10-15
Purdue - Loss 10-16

Toss ups: 4. Meaning PSU can win all 4, or lose all 4. Best case, that would make PSU 14-16. In my opinion. Of course PSU can steal one of those home games against Purdue, OSU, MSU but its about as likely as them dropping one of the away games they should win (Iowa) or home games (Indiana). This is my projections coming off a bad loss to Michigan, things can change. PSU played a pretty good game @Minnesota. If they play that way through all these games (unlikely) they could very well be 14-16 or 15-15. Bowl eligible!

Games of argument: It was a stretch to make the game @UM a toss up. The home NW game might be a straight up Win instead of a Toss up.


#3

Turner played 38 minutes and had 19 pts, 8 rebounds and 7 assists in OSU’s last game…though OSU lost to Minny 73-62.


#4

My feeling with this team is that they play better on the road in front of crowds.

Won at Virginia
Lost at #19 Temple by 3
Lost at Minnesota by 5

With all that said and what has been posted already in this thread, I think the easiest way to get to .500 is to come out and play like they did at Virginia (2nd half), at Minnesota (2nd half) and at Temple (OK maybe not like at Temple or we’ll have another 38-33 game on our hands) tonight at Illinois.

Win tonight and they’ll be back to .500 by next week. Then take it a game at a time after that. Won’t be easy tonight, but Battle has led his team into hostile territory before and come out on top. And you never know, PSU takes a lead into the 2nd half tonight and the Illini might get it in their minds that PSU just has their number and play tight.


#5

[quote=“noobd, post:2, topic:634”]Are you taking these percentages from Kenpom? They didn’t match exactly, but were extremely close.

I can’t see this team reaching .500:
Currently 8-7

@ Illinois - Loss 8-8
@ Iowa - Win 9-8
Indiana - Win 10-8
@ Wisky - Loss 10-9
Illinois - Toss up **
@ Purdue - Loss 10-10
@ OSU - Loss 10-11
Minnesota - Toss up **
MSU - Loss 10-12
@ NW - Loss 10-13
@ Michigan - Toss up**
OSU - Loss 10-14
NW - Toss up **
@ MSU - Loss 10-15
Purdue - Loss 10-16

Toss ups: 4. Meaning PSU can win all 4, or lose all 4. Best case, that would make PSU 14-16. In my opinion. Of course PSU can steal one of those home games against Purdue, OSU, MSU but its about as likely as them dropping one of the away games they should win (Iowa) or home games (Indiana). This is my projections coming off a bad loss to Michigan, things can change. PSU played a pretty good game @Minnesota. If they play that way through all these games (unlikely) they could very well be 14-16 or 15-15. Bowl eligible!

Games of argument: It was a stretch to make the game @UM a toss up. The home NW game might be a straight up Win instead of a Toss up.[/quote]

Until the team gets a second scorer not sure they win any of the 4


#6

[quote=“mhenry41, post:1, topic:634”] I must preface the remainder of this post by saying that I am not predicting such a thing will happen. I did want to look at how it could/would be possible.

PSU would have to finish the B10 slate at home by going 6-1 and on the road by going 3-5. Lets take a look at the 9 most statistically probable games for a PSU win.

72% Indiana (Certainly a winnable contest at the BJC)
52% @ Iowa (Again, winnable, but Iowa has hung tough @ home a few times so far)
51% Northwestern (Again, winnable. Couldnt rule this out)
39% Illinois (This makes 2night’s game huge)
29% Ohio State (OSU has been poor without Turner…but both games are later in the sked)
27% @ Michigan (Revenge…)
26% Michigan State (Tough one here…)
24% @ Northwestern (PSU always wins at NW, but they appear to be different for a change)
23% Minnesota (Hung tough with them at the barn…)

There are a few toughies on there, but can we totally rule out stealing one or two that nobody thinks PSU can win?[/quote]

@ Illinois was a bonus game that PSU didn’t have a strong statistical probability of pulling off. That would have been a nice bonus win.


#7

You have better chance of finding 2 honest PA politicians than us finishing .500 in the league.


#8

#9

To play devil’s advocate, PSU could very easily be 3-1 in conference against teams with a current conference record of 12-4!


#10
[quote="tundra, post:7, topic:634"]You have better chance of finding 2 honest PA politicians than us finishing .500 in the league.[/quote]

To play devil’s advocate, PSU could very easily be 3-1 in conference against teams with a current conference record of 12-4!

We played Minny tough for sure, but we never had a lead during the final 7:30 and only 1 second of the final 2 minutes was it a one possession game. Even the UM game wasn’t close at the end. We were never in front for the final 3:30, and it was never a one possession game for the final 3 minutes. Sure we had a big lead in that game, but for as much as we outplayed UM for the entire first half, they did that and more in the second half. The Ill game was the only game we had a chance to win at the end.

Just a note: Illinois is 4-0, but their wins have come against the bottom four teams in the league.


#11

True…and three of those at home. OT to the Kittees, by 1 over the Nittees and a dismantling of the Hawkees. Their one road win at Bloomington they were down by 16 early in the 2nd half. I hate to say that I see an ugly game coming tomorrow in East Lansing.

By contrast PSU has lost by 5 at Minny, by 1 at Ill. At home to a tough as nails Wisky and coughed up a winnable vs Michigan.

If PSU and Illinois skeds where switched (with the PSU/Ill game being at the BJC instead), I’d say they’d be looking at 1-3 and we’d be closer to 3-1, maybe 4-0.

PSU is not an 0-4 team folks. Though I hope the record doesn’t play on the Nittany’s psyche, or 0-4 might become 0-5 tomorrow, which could be tragic for this team.


#12
[quote="NICU, post:10, topic:634"]Just a note: Illinois is 4-0, but their wins have come against the bottom four teams in the league.[/quote]

True…and three of those at home. OT to the Kittees, by 1 over the Nittees and a dismantling of the Hawkees. Their one road win at Bloomington they were down by 16 early in the 2nd half. I hate to say that I see an ugly game coming tomorrow in East Lansing.

By contrast PSU has lost by 5 at Minny, by 1 at Ill. At home to a tough as nails Wisky and coughed up a winnable vs Michigan.

If PSU and Illinois skeds where switched (with the PSU/Ill game being at the BJC instead), I’d say they’d be looking at 1-3 and we’d be closer to 3-1, maybe 4-0.

PSU is not an 0-4 team folks. Though I hope the record doesn’t play on the Nittany’s psyche, or 0-4 might become 0-5 tomorrow, which could be tragic for this team.

Yes I get your point that they are not 0-4 team, I could agree with you on talent they are not but as many coaches have said you are what your record is right now we are an 0-4 team no matter you want to slice it.


#13

“You are what your record says you are”


#14

And…

“You play to win the game”…Herm

“They are who we thought they were”…Dennis


#15

“PLAYoffs…you kiddin’ me, Playoffs…I’m just hoping we can win a game”


#16

“It’s practice…man. We talkin’ about practice. What we talkin about…practice”


#17

Two conference home losses without the student body, in bad weather, right after a tough loss at Minny…

I know, I know - EXCUSES ARE FOR LOSERS - Central PA is what it is.

But, this team’s psyche really needed the Nation and the pep band on those nights.

The remaining home games will have a much more positive vibe.


#18

quick answer. beginning of next year. This season may not be salvageable.
Gotta coach em up for a first division run next year.


#19

Not happening.

End of thread.


#20
[quote="NICU, post:10, topic:634"]Just a note: Illinois is 4-0, but their wins have come against the bottom four teams in the league.[/quote]

True…and three of those at home. OT to the Kittees, by 1 over the Nittees and a dismantling of the Hawkees. Their one road win at Bloomington they were down by 16 early in the 2nd half. I hate to say that I see an ugly game coming tomorrow in East Lansing.

By contrast PSU has lost by 5 at Minny, by 1 at Ill. At home to a tough as nails Wisky and coughed up a winnable vs Michigan.

If PSU and Illinois skeds where switched (with the PSU/Ill game being at the BJC instead), I’d say they’d be looking at 1-3 and we’d be closer to 3-1, maybe 4-0.

PSU is not an 0-4 team folks. Though I hope the record doesn’t play on the Nittany’s psyche, or 0-4 might become 0-5 tomorrow, which could be tragic for this team.

I finally agree with this statement