Question for an "eyeballs" person from a "stats" person re: David Jackson


#1

I don’t generally get to watch the games due to lack of B10 network (and of a television in general), so I try my best to listen to games on the 'net and crunch numbers. One huge question I have for the “eyeballs” folks is: why isn’t David Jackson getting the ball more? I realize that he has been playing a bigger role as the B10 season has gone on, but from a purely statistical perspective he is:

[ul][li]The second-best shooter on the team (effective FG% of .538, behind only Ott’s .596)[/li]
[li]Someone who takes care of the ball (TO’s on only 13.4% of his individual computed possessions, which is 3rd best among the 8 most active players and less than half of the TO% of the Andrews)[/li]
[li]Consequently, someone who scores an average of 1.28 points per computed individual possession, which is second only to Ott’s 1.53 and significantly above the values of Talor Battle (0.96) and Chris Babb (1.01).[/li][/ul]

If the stats told the whole story, it would seem to be a slam-dunk (pun semi-intended) to feed the ball to DJ as often as possible. Yet this isn’t happening, though again he is getting more and more involved with the offense as time goes on. Is it because he’s just not getting open enough to receive passes consistently, or is he in fact not shooting that often when he has the ball (since being passed the ball and passing it off doesn’t show up in the stats), or is he not getting passed to when open despite having about half the TO rate of PSU’s other big-minute frontcourt players?


#2

[quote=“BobK, post:1, topic:807”]I don’t generally get to watch the games due to lack of B10 network (and of a television in general), so I try my best to listen to games on the 'net and crunch numbers. One huge question I have for the “eyeballs” folks is: why isn’t David Jackson getting the ball more? I realize that he has been playing a bigger role as the B10 season has gone on, but from a purely statistical perspective he is:

[ul][li]The second-best shooter on the team (effective FG% of .538, behind only Ott’s .596)[/li]
[li]Someone who takes care of the ball (TO’s on only 13.4% of his individual computed possessions, which is 3rd best among the 8 most active players and less than half of the TO% of the Andrews)[/li]
[li]Consequently, someone who scores an average of 1.28 points per computed individual possession, which is second only to Ott’s 1.53 and significantly above the values of Talor Battle (0.96) and Chris Babb (1.01).[/li][/ul]

If the stats told the whole story, it would seem to be a slam-dunk (pun semi-intended) to feed the ball to DJ as often as possible. Yet this isn’t happening, though again he is getting more and more involved with the offense as time goes on. Is it because he’s just not getting open enough to receive passes consistently, or is he in fact not shooting that often when he has the ball (since being passed the ball and passing it off doesn’t show up in the stats), or is he not getting passed to when open despite having about half the TO rate of PSU’s other big-minute frontcourt players?[/quote]

Generally speaking when they take the ball up the court they don’t pass it inside right away which is usually where DJ is. (Inside being about 4 feet inside the arc) the ball movement is usually around the outside and then inside if need be. For the most part we settle for outside shots or a drive. DJ usually does his work with an open 3 or a dish off a drive. Since a drive doesn’t always need to be passed he doesn’t always get it, and since he isn’t our primary 3 ball shooter he doesn’t always get the ball that way. He seems to act as the 2nd option and he delivers. I do think he should get the ball more, but his function as the secondary option as worked well, if you change it up too much people might try and adjust to him.


#3
I don't generally get to watch the games due to lack of B10 network (and of a television in general), so I try my best to listen to games on the 'net and crunch numbers. One huge question I have for the "eyeballs" folks is: why isn't David Jackson getting the ball more? I realize that he has been playing a bigger role as the B10 season has gone on, but from a purely statistical perspective he is:

[ul][li]The second-best shooter on the team (effective FG% of .538, behind only Ott’s .596)[/li]
[li]Someone who takes care of the ball (TO’s on only 13.4% of his individual computed possessions, which is 3rd best among the 8 most active players and less than half of the TO% of the Andrews)[/li]
[li]Consequently, someone who scores an average of 1.28 points per computed individual possession, which is second only to Ott’s 1.53 and significantly above the values of Talor Battle (0.96) and Chris Babb (1.01).[/li][/ul]

If the stats told the whole story, it would seem to be a slam-dunk (pun semi-intended) to feed the ball to DJ as often as possible. Yet this isn’t happening, though again he is getting more and more involved with the offense as time goes on. Is it because he’s just not getting open enough to receive passes consistently, or is he in fact not shooting that often when he has the ball (since being passed the ball and passing it off doesn’t show up in the stats), or is he not getting passed to when open despite having about half the TO rate of PSU’s other big-minute frontcourt players?

Generally speaking when they take the ball up the court they don’t pass it inside right away which is usually where DJ is. (Inside being about 4 feet inside the arc) the ball movement is usually around the outside and then inside if need be. For the most part we settle for outside shots or a drive. DJ usually does his work with an open 3 or a dish off a drive. Since a drive doesn’t always need to be passed he doesn’t always get it, and since he isn’t our primary 3 ball shooter he doesn’t always get the ball that way. He seems to act as the 2nd option and he delivers. I do think he should get the ball more, but his function as the secondary option as worked well, if you change it up too much people might try and adjust to him.

I don’t agree he’s inside. Where? I guess he’s inside the arc, but he’s not really in a position to receive a pass and score. I don’t recall ever seeing him drive with the ball. I think the second part of your post is correct. When guys penetrate, he gets kickouts, either at the arc or inside the arc. He also runs an occasional back door. He has been playing much better, but can’t really shoot off the dribble, doesn’t post up, can’t beat his man and finish strong at the at the hole, but does have a decent shot, and I thought played very well today. Unfortunately, we need points in the paint, and he doesn’t really do that, and can’t really finish strong. Not sure I’ve seen him dunk all year. He does take limited shots, almost always good ones, rarely forced, always receives the ball facing the basket. Probably best FT shooter we have. He gets a lot of touches, but kind of needs to be open, as I don’t really see him creating his own shot, so he often gives it up. Nice jumper though. Good form, rotation.

IMO, everybody’s game would be helped if we had a bruiser in the paint drawing attention.


#4

DJ is very good at moving without the ball, and he makes the most of the opportunities he gets when he frees himself up. He is also smart moving to open spots when our guards drive. However, he is not really a guy you can pound the ball inside to, or somebody you setup on the perimeter so he can take his man off the bounce. He has played well lately, that’s for sure.


#5
[quote="BobK, post:1, topic:807"]I don't generally get to watch the games due to lack of B10 network (and of a television in general), so I try my best to listen to games on the 'net and crunch numbers. One huge question I have for the "eyeballs" folks is: why isn't David Jackson getting the ball more? I realize that he has been playing a bigger role as the B10 season has gone on, but from a purely statistical perspective he is:

[ul][li]The second-best shooter on the team (effective FG% of .538, behind only Ott’s .596)[/li]
[li]Someone who takes care of the ball (TO’s on only 13.4% of his individual computed possessions, which is 3rd best among the 8 most active players and less than half of the TO% of the Andrews)[/li]
[li]Consequently, someone who scores an average of 1.28 points per computed individual possession, which is second only to Ott’s 1.53 and significantly above the values of Talor Battle (0.96) and Chris Babb (1.01).[/li][/ul]

If the stats told the whole story, it would seem to be a slam-dunk (pun semi-intended) to feed the ball to DJ as often as possible. Yet this isn’t happening, though again he is getting more and more involved with the offense as time goes on. Is it because he’s just not getting open enough to receive passes consistently, or is he in fact not shooting that often when he has the ball (since being passed the ball and passing it off doesn’t show up in the stats), or is he not getting passed to when open despite having about half the TO rate of PSU’s other big-minute frontcourt players?[/quote]

Generally speaking when they take the ball up the court they don’t pass it inside right away which is usually where DJ is. (Inside being about 4 feet inside the arc) the ball movement is usually around the outside and then inside if need be. For the most part we settle for outside shots or a drive. DJ usually does his work with an open 3 or a dish off a drive. Since a drive doesn’t always need to be passed he doesn’t always get it, and since he isn’t our primary 3 ball shooter he doesn’t always get the ball that way. He seems to act as the 2nd option and he delivers. I do think he should get the ball more, but his function as the secondary option as worked well, if you change it up too much people might try and adjust to him.

I don’t agree he’s inside. Where? I guess he’s inside the arc, but he’s not really in a position to receive a pass and score. I don’t recall ever seeing him drive with the ball. I think the second part of your post is correct. When guys penetrate, he gets kickouts, either at the arc or inside the arc. He also runs an occasional back door. He has been playing much better, but can’t really shoot off the dribble, doesn’t post up, can’t beat his man and finish strong at the at the hole, but does have a decent shot, and I thought played very well today. Unfortunately, we need points in the paint, and he doesn’t really do that, and can’t really finish strong. Not sure I’ve seen him dunk all year. He does take limited shots, almost always good ones, rarely forced, always receives the ball facing the basket. Probably best FT shooter we have. He gets a lot of touches, but kind of needs to be open, as I don’t really see him creating his own shot, so he often gives it up. Nice jumper though. Good form, rotation.

IMO, everybody’s game would be helped if we had a bruiser in the paint drawing attention.

Not inside in the sense of the word. But we generally run our offense around the arc, he is usually inside the arc which isn’t really where he doesn’t really bang around well. But like you said, he takes good shots,and makes the most of his chances


#6

Agreed. DJ just seems very comfortable on the floor this season. Knows where to be on offense, picks his spots offensively, and has good shot selection. But Kid’s right, he’s not an inside player at the four, which creates problems for the rest of the team. Ideally, we’d be playing him at the 3.


#7

I disagree on his post game. I think he does post up, just not enough for your liking (and probably not enough for mine either). He’s not a guy that will beat other 4’s with quickness on the block and doesn’t have a whole lot of moves, but he does have the strength to finish on the block when he establishes good enough position.


#8

DJ is a “fine” basketball player. Because he plays the way he plays. He plays smart and within himself. He does not have great “ups” or great “quickness.” He is fairly strong but not bulky. Bluntly he does not have the physical ability to be a PTPer. Thus if he tried to do a lot more his skill set would be exposed.
BUT BUT he is still our 2nd most effective basketball player. By far! We could use a couple more of him! He is our smartest player and best defender! He is playing “out of position” most of the time for the good of the team.


#9

Numbers like this suggest that we should giving more minutes to the younger guys.


#10

[quote=“tundra, post:8, topic:807”]DJ is a “fine” basketball player. Because he plays the way he plays. He plays smart and within himself. He does not have great “ups” or great “quickness.” He is fairly strong but not bulky. Bluntly he does not have the physical ability to be a PTPer. Thus if he tried to do a lot more his skill set would be exposed.
BUT BUT he is still our 2nd most effective basketball player. By far! We could use a couple more of him! He is our smartest player and best defender! He is playing “out of position” most of the time for the good of the team.[/quote]

Here’s a surprising stat for you. It’s Penn State’s scoring per player prorated to 40 minutes. Battle obviously leads the pack but everyone else among the regular contributors is pretty much equal (other than Jones who trails ever so slightly, i.e. just a point and a half per 40 minutes).

[b]Pts/40min[/b]
Talor Battle.......	20.78
Jackson, David (DJ)	12.28
Andrew Ott.........	12.25
Chris Babb.........	12.08
Jeff Brooks........	12.05
Adam Highberger....	11.91
Bill Edwards.......	11.41
Tim Frazier........	10.93
Sasa Borovnjak.....	 9.77
Andrew Jones.......	 9.53
Cammeron Woodyard..	 7.01
Billy Oliver.......	 5.00
Steve Kirkpatrick..	 0.00

That would suggest that it almost doesn’t matter who gets the minutes, you’re going to wind up with the same amount of scoring from your supporting cast. Not one of them has shown that they could be considered the consistent second scorer (even though DJ has certainly come on lately).


#11

Sorry Hewey - I removed the post then added it because I originally meant it to be response but forgot to quote the other post. That makes your post kind of hang out there.

I would agree that the younger guys should be getting more minutes IF we had seniors on the squad - but we don’t. While this season may be a wash, giving the juniors minutes certainly builds for next year.


#12

Also, is there any reason why Highberger got time while Frasier sat and watched. How does that get us ready for next year?


#13
[quote="pmhewitt, post:9, topic:807"]Numbers like this suggest that we should giving more minutes to the younger guys.[/quote]

Also, is there any reason why Highberger got time while Frasier sat and watched. How does that get us ready for next year?

Agreed. I don’t understand why he gets minutes either.


#14
[quote="pmhewitt, post:9, topic:807"]Numbers like this suggest that we should giving more minutes to the younger guys.[/quote]

Sorry Hewey - I removed the post then added it because I originally meant it to be response but forgot to quote the other post. That makes your post kind of hang out there.

I would agree that the younger guys should be getting more minutes IF we had seniors on the squad - but we don’t. While this season may be a wash, giving the juniors minutes certainly builds for next year.

I suppose that is one way of looking at it. The other way to look at it is if you have 2 guys who are performing at the same level right now, and 1 has another 3 years to develop and the other only has 1 year to develop, doesn’t it make more sense to go with the young guy? Obviously we are looking at just this one stat in a vacuum but on just that basis I don’t see why you would go with the juniors over the freshmen.


#15
[quote="pmhewitt, post:9, topic:807"]Numbers like this suggest that we should giving more minutes to the younger guys.[/quote]

Also, is there any reason why Highberger got time while Frasier sat and watched. How does that get us ready for next year?

Actually, I heard yesterday that Highberger has decided to come back next year afterall.


#16
[quote="pmhewitt, post:9, topic:807"]Numbers like this suggest that we should giving more minutes to the younger guys.[/quote]

Sorry Hewey - I removed the post then added it because I originally meant it to be response but forgot to quote the other post. That makes your post kind of hang out there.

I would agree that the younger guys should be getting more minutes IF we had seniors on the squad - but we don’t. While this season may be a wash, giving the juniors minutes certainly builds for next year.

I suppose that is one way of looking at it. The other way to look at it is if you have 2 guys who are performing at the same level right now, and 1 has another 3 years to develop and the other only has 1 year to develop, doesn’t it make more sense to go with the young guy? Obviously we are looking at just this one stat in a vacuum but on just that basis I don’t see why you would go with the juniors over the freshmen.

That’s what the coach would do if he was secure in his future as basketball coach. However, if I’m ED, I play the Jrs even if it costs me down the road, because they may be able to squeeze out one or two wins this season.

ED knows that he only needs to win a few games this season and perhaps 5-7 next year to keep his job. He’s not going to care about building the future right now. If ED gets another year, I’m guessing his OOC schedule is going to be terrible, very similar to last years.


#17
[quote="pmhewitt, post:9, topic:807"]Numbers like this suggest that we should giving more minutes to the younger guys.[/quote]

Sorry Hewey - I removed the post then added it because I originally meant it to be response but forgot to quote the other post. That makes your post kind of hang out there.

I would agree that the younger guys should be getting more minutes IF we had seniors on the squad - but we don’t. While this season may be a wash, giving the juniors minutes certainly builds for next year.

I suppose that is one way of looking at it. The other way to look at it is if you have 2 guys who are performing at the same level right now, and 1 has another 3 years to develop and the other only has 1 year to develop, doesn’t it make more sense to go with the young guy? Obviously we are looking at just this one stat in a vacuum but on just that basis I don’t see why you would go with the juniors over the freshmen.

That’s what the coach would do if he was secure in his future as basketball coach. However, if I’m ED, I play the Jrs even if it costs me down the road, because they may be able to squeeze out one or two wins this season.

ED knows that he only needs to win a few games this season and perhaps 5-7 next year to keep his job. He’s not going to care about building the future right now. If ED gets another year, I’m guessing his OOC schedule is going to be terrible, very similar to last years.

The point is that the numbers don’t show any real difference. If 2 guys are giving you almost the exact same thing, why would going with the older ones give you more wins?


#18
[quote="pmhewitt, post:9, topic:807"]Numbers like this suggest that we should giving more minutes to the younger guys.[/quote]

Sorry Hewey - I removed the post then added it because I originally meant it to be response but forgot to quote the other post. That makes your post kind of hang out there.

I would agree that the younger guys should be getting more minutes IF we had seniors on the squad - but we don’t. While this season may be a wash, giving the juniors minutes certainly builds for next year.

I suppose that is one way of looking at it. The other way to look at it is if you have 2 guys who are performing at the same level right now, and 1 has another 3 years to develop and the other only has 1 year to develop, doesn’t it make more sense to go with the young guy? Obviously we are looking at just this one stat in a vacuum but on just that basis I don’t see why you would go with the juniors over the freshmen.

That’s what the coach would do if he was secure in his future as basketball coach. However, if I’m ED, I play the Jrs even if it costs me down the road, because they may be able to squeeze out one or two wins this season.

ED knows that he only needs to win a few games this season and perhaps 5-7 next year to keep his job. He’s not going to care about building the future right now. If ED gets another year, I’m guessing his OOC schedule is going to be terrible, very similar to last years.

The point is that the numbers don’t show any real difference. If 2 guys are giving you almost the exact same thing, why would going with the older ones give you more wins?

Older guys protect the ball better and have better defense. You see it in Edwards’ plus/minus. Older guys do things besides scoring which gives you a better chance of winning.

Its probably the same reason Frazier doesn’t play as much as he should


#19
[quote="pmhewitt, post:9, topic:807"]Numbers like this suggest that we should giving more minutes to the younger guys.[/quote]

Sorry Hewey - I removed the post then added it because I originally meant it to be response but forgot to quote the other post. That makes your post kind of hang out there.

I would agree that the younger guys should be getting more minutes IF we had seniors on the squad - but we don’t. While this season may be a wash, giving the juniors minutes certainly builds for next year.

I suppose that is one way of looking at it. The other way to look at it is if you have 2 guys who are performing at the same level right now, and 1 has another 3 years to develop and the other only has 1 year to develop, doesn’t it make more sense to go with the young guy? Obviously we are looking at just this one stat in a vacuum but on just that basis I don’t see why you would go with the juniors over the freshmen.

There’s plenty of minutes to go around. I might agree with you if it were a question of playing them vs sitting on the bench but we’re talking about guys in an eight man rotation - lots of minutes to be had. Frazier and Edwards are averaging almost 20 mpg (19.7 and 18.9 to be exact). Jones and Brooks are averaging about 23 (23.0 and 22.7 to be exact). I don’t see any need to suddenly bump Frazier and Edwards to 30 and reduced Jones and Brooks to 12.


#20

[quote=“FanofPSU, post:18, topic:807”]Older guys protect the ball better and have better defense. You see it in Edwards’ plus/minus. Older guys do things besides scoring which gives you a better chance of winning.

Its probably the same reason Frazier doesn’t play as much as he should[/quote]

That’s definitely the case with Highberger on both counts…he has zero points in B10 play (0-7 shooting) but also zero TO’s. Frazier’s still turning the ball over on nearly a quarter of his computed possessions, which is about twice as high as it should be for a guard.