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Rocky beginnings: Veterans have difficult day for Penn State by Jeff Rice

Lions top ESU By Emily Kaplan and Jared Shanker Collegian Staff Writers

I have no idea how the season will turn out, but I’m relatively optimistic, and I think Jeff Rice’s article sort of exposes why to some extent. The theme is basically that the veterans struggled, though the newbies did okay. Why is this bad? Here’s the reasoning…

Many have stated this team will be better because it has 4 seniors and Tim Frazier starting. Okay, agreed, another year of experience can’t hurt. I’m on board with that, except…this group of 5 was 3-16 last year, actually worse, as Babb was starting. So, there was always a possibility that while they may have improved somewhat over last year, the ability of newcomers to overtake them isn’t bad, it’s good. It shows that the newbies are better than guys who by experience, are better than they were last year. So…these newbies may be better than guys that are, er, better over last year. Is it not better to have guys who are better than guys who are better? :wink: 7th place at worst, IMO.

Last year, here’s some stats on today’s starting 5.

player mpg ppg
Talor 37 18.5
DJ 30 9.5
AJ 24 6.0
Jeff 23 7.4
Tim 18 5.0

That’s 132 mpg and 48.4ppg. Last year the team averaged 64.9ppg. If you add Oliver’s and Buie’s mpg and ppg from yesterday(19,10 and 18, 9 respectively) , it’d make it 169 mpg and 67.4ppg, leaving a little room in mpg for some more ppg. It can’t be likely that the starting 5 scores less than last year, as minutes should be similar if not more, unless a newbie(s) is better, so it’s kind of a worse case scenario that the starting 5 stays the same. And if Oliver and Buie can repeat what they did yesterday(keep in mind there’s 31 minutes left to pad their totals or anybody else’s) this team should be alright.

[quote=“kidcoyote, post:2, topic:1464”]I have no idea how the season will turn out, but I’m relatively optimistic, and I think Jeff Rice’s article sort of exposes why to some extent. The theme is basically that the veterans struggled, though the newbies did okay. Why is this bad? Here’s the reasoning…

Many have stated this team will be better because it has 4 seniors and Tim Frazier starting. Okay, agreed, another year of experience can’t hurt. I’m on board with that, except…this group of 5 was 3-16 last year, actually worse, as Babb was starting. So, there was always a possibility that while they may have improved somewhat over last year, the ability of newcomers to overtake them isn’t bad, it’s good. It shows that the newbies are better than guys who by experience, are better than they were last year. So…these newbies may be better than guys that are, er, better over last year. Is it not better to have guys who are better than guys who are better? :wink: 7th place at worst, IMO.

Last year, here’s some stats on today’s starting 5.

player mpg ppg
Talor 37 18.5
DJ 30 9.5
AJ 24 6.0
Jeff 23 7.4
Tim 18 5.0

That’s 132 mpg and 48.4ppg. Last year the team averaged 64.9ppg. If you add Oliver’s and Buie’s mpg and ppg from yesterday(19,10 and 18, 9 respectively) , it’d make it 169 mpg and 67.4ppg, leaving a little room in mpg for some more ppg. It can’t be likely that the starting 5 scores less than last year, as minutes should be similar if not more, unless a newbie(s) is better, so it’s kind of a worse case scenario that the starting 5 stays the same. And if Oliver and Buie can repeat what they did yesterday(keep in mind there’s 31 minutes left to pad their totals or anybody else’s) this team should be alright.[/quote]

For someone who berates me every time I post a stat, you sure do manage to inject them into your arguments disproportionately often. ???

The offense wasn’t, and isn’t the problem we should be most concerned about. There are moments where we have lulls in almost every game, but we score at a decent enough clip given our opportunities, relative to the rest of the country.

Our problem is, and will be, defense. We give up an awfully high shooting percentage against us and create fewer turnovers than all but about 5 teams in the country. If those things improve, while everything else stays relatively the same… we will win more games this year. That’s the area where I hope Frazier and Buie are able to really step things up this year in order to truly help the W/L record of this squad.

I have no idea how the season will turn out, but I'm relatively optimistic, and I think Jeff Rice's article sort of exposes why to some extent. The theme is basically that the veterans struggled, though the newbies did okay. Why is this bad? Here's the reasoning....

Many have stated this team will be better because it has 4 seniors and Tim Frazier starting. Okay, agreed, another year of experience can’t hurt. I’m on board with that, except…this group of 5 was 3-16 last year, actually worse, as Babb was starting. So, there was always a possibility that while they may have improved somewhat over last year, the ability of newcomers to overtake them isn’t bad, it’s good. It shows that the newbies are better than guys who by experience, are better than they were last year. So…these newbies may be better than guys that are, er, better over last year. Is it not better to have guys who are better than guys who are better? :wink: 7th place at worst, IMO.

Last year, here’s some stats on today’s starting 5.

player mpg ppg
Talor 37 18.5
DJ 30 9.5
AJ 24 6.0
Jeff 23 7.4
Tim 18 5.0

That’s 132 mpg and 48.4ppg. Last year the team averaged 64.9ppg. If you add Oliver’s and Buie’s mpg and ppg from yesterday(19,10 and 18, 9 respectively) , it’d make it 169 mpg and 67.4ppg, leaving a little room in mpg for some more ppg. It can’t be likely that the starting 5 scores less than last year, as minutes should be similar if not more, unless a newbie(s) is better, so it’s kind of a worse case scenario that the starting 5 stays the same. And if Oliver and Buie can repeat what they did yesterday(keep in mind there’s 31 minutes left to pad their totals or anybody else’s) this team should be alright.

For someone who berates me every time I post a stat, you sure do manage to inject them into your arguments disproportionately often. ???

I nearly posted the exact same response. :slight_smile:

If Oliver and Buie could actually chip in a combined 19 a game for this team every night, we’d be a top 3 finisher in the big 10. That should also tell you just how much I think it’s possible they do…

So you’re saying the pressure is all on Oliver and Buie? :wink:

Seriously, 19 is pushing it.

[quote=“Craftsy21, post:4, topic:1464”]The offense wasn’t, and isn’t the problem we should be most concerned about. There are moments where we have lulls in almost every game, but we score at a decent enough clip given our opportunities, relative to the rest of the country.

Our problem is, and will be, defense. We give up an awfully high shooting percentage against us and create fewer turnovers than all but about 5 teams in the country. If those things improve, while everything else stays relatively the same… we will win more games this year. That’s the area where I hope Frazier and Buie are able to really step things up this year in order to truly help the W/L record of this squad.[/quote]

Couldn’t agree more. For all of the talk about the offense, it’s the defense that will determine how good we are this season. That’s where we need to see a big improvement.

Wow. Two mad at me. Must be doing something right. :wink:

It’s the way you use stats sometimes Lar. When I state, “when did we have a 6’8” guy who can shoot like that?", you mention Brooks. Do you honestly think he shoots as well? If you want stats, do you really think Oliver will be shooting 27% from the arc after 94 shots? If you count yesterday, he’d have to go 24-90. Unlikely, at best. You’re using stats from one game, I’m using my eyeballs for one game on Oliver, and used them on one game initially on Brooks. Though I did hear Oliver and Buie were the best on PSU vs. Temple(it’s why I changed my top 5-7). While ESU might be a pushover, Temple surely isn’t. I’m not predicting a Big 10 title, and they did look sloppy, but this team is much better than last year. And making the NCAA’s is not going to depend, “on the seniors playing like seniors”, but more if two newbies get serious minutes, maybe start. Jumping ahead of the supposed starting 5 will signify they’re better. And that’s good…or better. :wink:

Sekunda. He was a big guy who had a nice long range shot!

Milos Bogetic? Travis Parker? Tyler Smith? Sekunda was 6-8 but he was a SF who could handle and pass - don’t think Oliver’s that versatile. B.J. Vossekuil’s proof that if you’re a bigman you need to do more than just shoot - so hopefully Oliver won’t be getting pushed around underneath in conference play.

[quote=“kidcoyote, post:9, topic:1464”]Wow. Two mad at me. Must be doing something right. :wink:

It’s the way you use stats sometimes Lar. When I state, “when did we have a 6’8” guy who can shoot like that?", you mention Brooks. Do you honestly think he shoots as well? If you want stats, do you really think Oliver will be shooting 27% from the arc after 94 shots? If you count yesterday, he’d have to go 24-90. Unlikely, at best. You’re using stats from one game, I’m using my eyeballs for one game on Oliver, and used them on one game initially on Brooks. Though I did hear Oliver and Buie were the best on PSU vs. Temple(it’s why I changed my top 5-7). While ESU might be a pushover, Temple surely isn’t. I’m not predicting a Big 10 title, and they did look sloppy, but this team is much better than last year. And making the NCAA’s is not going to depend, “on the seniors playing like seniors”, but more if two newbies get serious minutes, maybe start. Jumping ahead of the supposed starting 5 will signify they’re better. And that’s good…or better. ;)[/quote]

LMAO. “You’re using stats from one game”.

When you made this comment

“If you add Oliver’s and Buie’s mpg and ppg from yesterday(19,10 and 18, 9 respectively), it’d make it 169 mpg and 67.4ppg”

you were doing the same damn thing.

But it’s only inappropriate if I do it, not if you do? ???

[quote="Craftsy21, post:4, topic:1464"]The offense wasn't, and isn't the problem we should be most concerned about. There are moments where we have lulls in almost every game, but we score at a decent enough clip given our opportunities, relative to the rest of the country.

Our problem is, and will be, defense. We give up an awfully high shooting percentage against us and create fewer turnovers than all but about 5 teams in the country. If those things improve, while everything else stays relatively the same… we will win more games this year. That’s the area where I hope Frazier and Buie are able to really step things up this year in order to truly help the W/L record of this squad.[/quote]

Couldn’t agree more. For all of the talk about the offense, it’s the defense that will determine how good we are this season. That’s where we need to see a big improvement.

Well, Buie’s a step up in the D. He had 3 steals, and had a 4th, but they said it hit a foot, and 7 rebounds. That’s D, no? Buie’s as good as you get on D. Frazier’s good too, but he’s a bit foul prone. He had 4 yesterday, Talor and Taron had zero. Those two move their feet well, esp Taran. Tim hacks a bit. Last year, in less than half the minutes, Tim had 64 fouls vs. 52 for Talor. He was 6th in mpg last year, but 3rd in pf’s, fouling every 9 minutes(Lar’s probably going nuts with this, but Lar, I “saw it” first, then looked it up. I basically knew it would be something like this. My “eyeballs” told me so. ;)) But he’s certainly tough and quick enough to stay with anybody. Add in Jeff “the eraser” Brooks, and Billy O. getting some rebounds, and it’s looking better. Good front lines may still cause issues, but it’s better, IMO.

[quote="Craftsy21, post:4, topic:1464"]The offense wasn't, and isn't the problem we should be most concerned about. There are moments where we have lulls in almost every game, but we score at a decent enough clip given our opportunities, relative to the rest of the country.

Our problem is, and will be, defense. We give up an awfully high shooting percentage against us and create fewer turnovers than all but about 5 teams in the country. If those things improve, while everything else stays relatively the same… we will win more games this year. That’s the area where I hope Frazier and Buie are able to really step things up this year in order to truly help the W/L record of this squad.[/quote]

Couldn’t agree more. For all of the talk about the offense, it’s the defense that will determine how good we are this season. That’s where we need to see a big improvement.

Well, Buie’s a step up in the D. He had 3 steals, and had a 4th, but they said it hit a foot, and 7 rebounds. That’s D, no? Buie’s as good as you get on D. Frazier’s good too, but he’s a bit foul prone. He had 4 yesterday, Talor and Taron had zero. Those two move their feet well, esp Taran. Tim hacks a bit. Last year, in less than half the minutes, Tim had 64 fouls vs. 52 for Talor. He was 6th in mpg last year, but 3rd in pf’s, fouling every 9 minutes(Lar’s probably going nuts with this, but Lar, I “saw it” first, then looked it up. I basically knew it would be something like this. My “eyeballs” told me so. ;)) But he’s certainly tough and quick enough to stay with anybody. Add in Jeff “the eraser” Brooks, and Billy O. getting some rebounds, and it’s looking better. Good front lines may still cause issues, but it’s better, IMO.

LOL just stop. You can’t pick and choose numbers, especially if you’re using them wrong. Tim had 4 fouls yesterday and now he’s foul prone… my god, just stop.

Tim is fine with giving fouls. The entire team ranked 20th in sending teams to the line last year, meaning we could probably afford to be fouling more often if it’s the proper situation. Frazier also grabbed far and away the most steals per 40 minutes last year on the team. His defensive pressure is very solid, he’s not a hacker.

[quote="Craftsy21, post:4, topic:1464"]The offense wasn't, and isn't the problem we should be most concerned about. There are moments where we have lulls in almost every game, but we score at a decent enough clip given our opportunities, relative to the rest of the country.

Our problem is, and will be, defense. We give up an awfully high shooting percentage against us and create fewer turnovers than all but about 5 teams in the country. If those things improve, while everything else stays relatively the same… we will win more games this year. That’s the area where I hope Frazier and Buie are able to really step things up this year in order to truly help the W/L record of this squad.[/quote]

Couldn’t agree more. For all of the talk about the offense, it’s the defense that will determine how good we are this season. That’s where we need to see a big improvement.

Well, Buie’s a step up in the D. He had 3 steals, and had a 4th, but they said it hit a foot, and 7 rebounds. That’s D, no? Buie’s as good as you get on D. Frazier’s good too, but he’s a bit foul prone. He had 4 yesterday, Talor and Taron had zero. Those two move their feet well, esp Taran. Tim hacks a bit. Last year, in less than half the minutes, Tim had 64 fouls vs. 52 for Talor. He was 6th in mpg last year, but 3rd in pf’s, fouling every 9 minutes(Lar’s probably going nuts with this, but Lar, I “saw it” first, then looked it up. I basically knew it would be something like this. My “eyeballs” told me so. ;)) But he’s certainly tough and quick enough to stay with anybody. Add in Jeff “the eraser” Brooks, and Billy O. getting some rebounds, and it’s looking better. Good front lines may still cause issues, but it’s better, IMO.

I’m going nuts with this because you have decided that “fouls per minute” is an ok stat for you to use with Frazer but “rebounds per minute” isn’t ok for me to use with Talor.

[quote="Craftsy21, post:4, topic:1464"]The offense wasn't, and isn't the problem we should be most concerned about. There are moments where we have lulls in almost every game, but we score at a decent enough clip given our opportunities, relative to the rest of the country.

Our problem is, and will be, defense. We give up an awfully high shooting percentage against us and create fewer turnovers than all but about 5 teams in the country. If those things improve, while everything else stays relatively the same… we will win more games this year. That’s the area where I hope Frazier and Buie are able to really step things up this year in order to truly help the W/L record of this squad.[/quote]

Couldn’t agree more. For all of the talk about the offense, it’s the defense that will determine how good we are this season. That’s where we need to see a big improvement.

Well, Buie’s a step up in the D. He had 3 steals, and had a 4th, but they said it hit a foot, and 7 rebounds. That’s D, no? Buie’s as good as you get on D. Frazier’s good too, but he’s a bit foul prone. He had 4 yesterday, Talor and Taron had zero. Those two move their feet well, esp Taran. Tim hacks a bit. Last year, in less than half the minutes, Tim had 64 fouls vs. 52 for Talor. He was 6th in mpg last year, but 3rd in pf’s, fouling every 9 minutes(Lar’s probably going nuts with this, but Lar, I “saw it” first, then looked it up. I basically knew it would be something like this. My “eyeballs” told me so. ;)) But he’s certainly tough and quick enough to stay with anybody. Add in Jeff “the eraser” Brooks, and Billy O. getting some rebounds, and it’s looking better. Good front lines may still cause issues, but it’s better, IMO.

I’m going nuts with this because you have decided that “fouls per minute” is an ok stat for you to use with Frazer but “rebounds per minute” isn’t ok for me to use with Talor.

But see, he saw it with his eyes first and then found stats to make his point. What you’re trying to do is be completely objective about it all the time, and that makes no sense.

[quote="Craftsy21, post:4, topic:1464"]The offense wasn't, and isn't the problem we should be most concerned about. There are moments where we have lulls in almost every game, but we score at a decent enough clip given our opportunities, relative to the rest of the country.

Our problem is, and will be, defense. We give up an awfully high shooting percentage against us and create fewer turnovers than all but about 5 teams in the country. If those things improve, while everything else stays relatively the same… we will win more games this year. That’s the area where I hope Frazier and Buie are able to really step things up this year in order to truly help the W/L record of this squad.[/quote]

Couldn’t agree more. For all of the talk about the offense, it’s the defense that will determine how good we are this season. That’s where we need to see a big improvement.

Well, Buie’s a step up in the D. He had 3 steals, and had a 4th, but they said it hit a foot, and 7 rebounds. That’s D, no? Buie’s as good as you get on D. Frazier’s good too, but he’s a bit foul prone. He had 4 yesterday, Talor and Taron had zero. Those two move their feet well, esp Taran. Tim hacks a bit. Last year, in less than half the minutes, Tim had 64 fouls vs. 52 for Talor. He was 6th in mpg last year, but 3rd in pf’s, fouling every 9 minutes(Lar’s probably going nuts with this, but Lar, I “saw it” first, then looked it up. I basically knew it would be something like this. My “eyeballs” told me so. ;)) But he’s certainly tough and quick enough to stay with anybody. Add in Jeff “the eraser” Brooks, and Billy O. getting some rebounds, and it’s looking better. Good front lines may still cause issues, but it’s better, IMO.

I’m going nuts with this because you have decided that “fouls per minute” is an ok stat for you to use with Frazer but “rebounds per minute” isn’t ok for me to use with Talor.

But see, he saw it with his eyes first and then found stats to make his point. What you’re trying to do is be completely objective about it all the time, and that makes no sense.

Right, this makes so much sense now. Because Lar has never been to a PSU game, and kid has been to every home game (and some road games) that Battle has played at PSU. I totally get where kid is coming from. So stop picking on him. :smiley:

My point on Tim was I noticed he had many fouls last year that looked almost flagrant. Like he kinda snapped when he got beat off the dribble, not near the basket, outside the arc. I’ll point it out if it happens again. He kinda whacks guys on occasion.

Lar, good point. It’s not that stats per minute make no sense at all, but in Tim’s case, his fouls get him on the bench, and some of his fouls are close to flagrant. He did it often. On Talor, you get tired when you play the minutes he plays, so the longer he plays, the less rpm he’ll get. If he played 18 mpg last year like Tim, I’m sure his rpm would go up. He’d have fresher legs. The more minutes you play, the more likely the stats per minute go down. On scoring, not sure this is true, because your cover may tire more than you, or you may design plays or offense to counteract what the defense is doing, e.g., go big or small, change plays, break/don’t break, but on rebounding, or FTM’s, likely to go down the more you play. You just have less left in your legs. And while somebody has 5 points playing 8 mpg, I don’t think saying that’s 25 over a full game makes sense. If it was so easy, why don’t they play close to 40 minutes?

The more minutes you play, the more likely the stats per minute go down.

You have absolutely zero statistical basis for making this claim.

Can fatigue be an issue in basketball? Yes. But you’re making conclusions without any real facts. Nothing you say holds up to any real scrutiny, it’s just hearsay that you present as fact.