PennStateHoops.com Discussion Forum

PSU and the NCAA Tournament


#1

Some food for thought and discussion. If PSU wins a couple more games and is in the mix for an NCAA bid, I think that PSU might get in over a more deserving foe from a lesser conference for the following reasons:

  1. NCAA always looking for a Cinderella story - PSU might be Cinderella this year.

  2. NCAA has some regrets over not inviting PSU two years ago.

  3. Might be a good way to put some fans in the seats for the play-in/first round - which are often poorly attended.

  4. Sort of a lifetime achievement award for Talor. Great storyline - 2,000 pts, 500 rebounds, almost single-handedly willing his team to the NCAA tournament.

Remember the 1994 football season? Both PSU and Nebraska finished undefeated. Yes, Nebraska played one more game and beat Miami in the Orange Bowl; but PSU pulverized just about every opponent that year in a tougher league. Plus the comeback against Illinois was the stuff champions are made of. At the very least, there should have been a split national championship (especially if some of the slug Big Ten writers did the right thing and vote PSU #1). At any rate, both polls gave the #1 slot to Nebraska. Afterwards, it was described as a “lifetime achievement” award and vote for Tom Osborne, who had come close on previous occasions but never got the MNC.

So can Talor get us a bid based on his “lifetime achievement”? What do you guys think.


#2

Absolutely not. The committee doesn’t care about individual players, who got snubbed two years ago, who might be a Cinderella story, selling tickets, etc. They are just going to use their criteria to find the most deserving 37 at-large teams.

I think the only way that we’ll get cut some sort of a break is if we’re squarely on the bubble and make it to Sunday in Indy. With how little time there is between the end of the Big Ten title game and the selection show, life is a lot easier for the committee if they just ignore that game and make up one bracket (instead of having to create two of them).


#3

I think if we didn’t blow a 10 point lead at middle of the pack Michigan, at home; and get our doors blown off at MSU another so-so team we don’t even have this conversation.

Now we have to sweep Minnesota, beat NW in Evanston and win either in Madison or against OSU at home, pull off a win or 2 in the BTT say 5 Our Fathers and 12 Hail Mary’s and cross our fingers and toes and hope for some of the other bubble teams to fall down the stretch.


#4

[quote=“jjepsu92, post:3, topic:1936”]I think if we didn’t blow a 10 point lead at middle of the pack Michigan, at home; and get our doors blown off at MSU another so-so team we don’t even have this conversation.

Now we have to sweep Minnesota, beat NW in Evanston and win either in Madison or against OSU at home, pull off a win or 2 in the BTT say 5 Our Fathers and 12 Hail Mary’s and cross our fingers and toes and hope for some of the other bubble teams to fall down the stretch.[/quote]

I think you’re overstating what we need to do. I personally think winning 4 of the last 5 is enough without any wins in Indy. I also think that winning 3 of 5, then winning 2 in Indy might be enough.


#5

Other than having Tubby as your coach ;D, the committee couldn’t give a flying you-know-what about numbers 1, 2, 3 and 4 above.

Talor, like he has all career, will have to earn this bid the hard way. By beating some pretty darn good teams. Beat those teams and they’ll get in.

9-9 and 1-1 BTT at the very least. 9-9, 2-1 might just do it. 10-8, they’re in, unless they trip up vs #11 in the first round of the BTT.

Keep in mind that this is a weak year for the mid-majors. The bubble teams will also have major flaws in all of their resumes. AND three more teams will get to punch a ticket to the Dance (or at least the new first round of the Dance). All of those will help PSU if and only if they take care of business these last few weeks.


#6

I agree… As much I would like any of those criteria to count, they really won’t… or at leat, they SHOULDN’T… if you interviewed a committee member on Sunday night and asked them if any of these things were a factor (in anyone’s decision) he would tell you “no” 100% of the time. Now, we all know that if the same kind of questioning came to a politician, we could believe all the answers 0% of the time, but I’d like to believe that the selection committee members are at least a little more truthful.


#7

I think it’s becoming more and more clear that 10-8 will almost definitely put us in the 4-5 game. There is still a shot that 9-9 would put us in the 4-5 game as long as one of those wins is over Minnesota (and if another was over Ohio St, it would really help us with tiebreakers).


#8

My take is this: If PSU can somehow win 4 of the last 5, they will be in with a single BTT win and possibly without. If PSU wins 3 of the last 5, they will need to win at least 2 in the BTT. If PSU only wins 2 of the last 5, a BTT Championsip will be the only thing to get them in with the auto bid. I think this pretty much sums it up. To “lock it up” a sweep of Minnesota, a roadie Vs Northwestern PLUS a mega tough home win v OSU, or the impossible scenario of beating Wisconsin on the road.


#9

The guys are going to need a signature Away win. We have two more shots to get it: At Wisconsin or At The Barn.

Right now PSU is lumped with MSU, Minny, UM and Ill. Assuming the Big 10 gets 6 teams that leaves 3 out the 5 in that clump getting bids. MSU has better wins and they split the series with them blowing PSU out in East Lansing. UM beat PSU both games. Ill has better wins and they split the series with them blowing PSU out in Champaign. Minny is PSU’s only shot to sweep.

And to top it off the committee usually counts how you close more than you start. PSU is 1-3 in last 4 with 5 to go. 3-2 leaves PSU at 4-5 in last 9 going into the BTT. If that 3-2 is winning at Madison, at Minnesota and OSU I would say ok, but I still think PSU needs 4-1 and at least 1 in BTT to be safe and even then I would start to work the rosary beads.


#10

My belief is that absent an objective standard that is a consensus methodology, you can bet your a-- that factors like “I like Tubby” and “Talor deserves a shot” come into play. They may not even know that it does, but it will skew the way they look at the “objective” measures.

They can’t help it. It’s 3.5 billion years of evolution at work. :slight_smile:


#11

Just win baby…take all the maybe’s, what if’s and all the other uncertainty off the table.

Right now we are not on the Bracketology board. Whatever that’s worth. MSU is on the last four in. I say we need 10-8 with 1 BTT win or 9-9 with 2 BTT wins.


#12

10 Wins is and always was the standard necessary after our OOC results.

BTT won’t matter a thing if we got to 10, we’d have at least 6 quality wins at that point and a nice finish in a tough league, with a solid RPI and SOS. That makes us dance.

9-9 would have us outside looking in going into the BTT, and we could potential make some noise there to get over the hump but it’s a long shot IMO.

What I’m afraid will happen is that we beat NW, Minn, and then pull off the miracle against OSU… only to blow a game in Minnesota a la Iowa 2 years ago.

Just so much work left to do, even a 90 percent GREAT effort isn’t going to be enough. We have to play our best 5 games of the season all in a row to finish this season, against a very tough group of opponents. I believe we’re good enough to win every single game individually left on the schedule, I just don’t know if we’re good enough to string 4 out of 5 together.


#13

For the record, our offensive and defensive efficiency numbers are both slightly better than they were 2 years ago… so we look like a slightly better team than that one was on paper and most of us thought that team was worthy of dancing except for that Iowa loss. :confused:


#14

Also maybe worth noting that we won 4 out of 5 games down the stretch of that season 2 years ago before blowing the game to Iowa, when we were sitting at 6-6.


#15

You forgot to add that they don’t care about coaches either. :wink:


#16
[quote="frats, post:2, topic:1936"]Absolutely not. The committee doesn't care about individual players, who got snubbed two years ago, who might be a Cinderella story, selling tickets, etc. They are just going to use their criteria to find the most deserving 37 at-large teams.[/quote]

You forgot to add that they don’t care about coaches either. :wink:

Coaches themselves, no. But I’ve heard that the skin color of coaches has been taken into account in the past. :wink:


#17

Its going to be very difficult to leapfrog Michigan and pass Michigan State in the bubble pecking order. Not impossible, but very difficult.


#18

The one thing that PSU has going for them which they never have had in the past is RPI (63)/SOS (7).

The only problem is when you look at the schedule you can say good schedule but where are the good wins.

If this team can somehow rally and get 10 league wins and not make the tournament, I will start buying the conspiracy theories.


#19

The easiest way for us to make it is just win. I know it’s easier said than done, but we need to take it one game at a time. The focus should be just trying to win the game we have in front of us.


#20

If you look at Pomeroy’s forecast for Michigan, he has them going 18-13 (8-10). According to ColegeRPI, that would give them an RPI of 75th and according to RPIForecast, it would be 70.7. Even another win for them putting them at 9-9 gives them an RPIForecast of 58.3. I think as long as we finish a game up on them in the Big Ten, we’ll be ahead of the in the pecking order heading to Indy.

MSU has a projected record of 16-14 (8-10). RPIForecast gives them an RPI of 64.8 with that record, and 51.1 with a record of 9-9. I think they are another one where if we finish a game up on them in the Big Ten Standings, we’ll be ahead of them in the pecking order.

If we can get to 10-8, we should jump ahead of both. 9-9 and we’d need some damage in Indy. Basically, I think if we can take care of our business, the rest will sort itself out.