PennStateHoops.com Discussion Forum

Post-Lafayette perspective


#1

http://pennstatehoops.com/talk/index.php/topic,2869.0.html

From the poll in this preseason thread, most (19 of 22) expected 8 wins or less out-of-conference. They’ll get to 8 if they beat Mt. St. Mary’s and Cornell.

Personally, I was expecting 7-6: losses to SJU, Duquesne, Ole Miss, a sweep in CT, and one other one. They’re still ahead of that pace, by virtue of the split in CT.

They played awful tonight, but this is in no way worse than the Maine loss last year. By KenPom ratings, that was #37 losing to #208, this was #161 losing to #229.

This is a rebuilding year, by all accounts. If you’re under the illusion that this team is making even the NIT, you’re setting yourself up for disappointment.

This is something for these guys to build on, and hopefully they’re a better team for it.


#2

[quote=“Chris11, post:1, topic:2905”]http://pennstatehoops.com/talk/index.php/topic,2869.0.html

From the poll in this preseason thread, most (19 of 22) expected 8 wins or less out-of-conference. They’ll get to 8 if they beat Mt. St. Mary’s and Cornell.

Personally, I was expecting 7-6: losses to SJU, Duquesne, Ole Miss, a sweep in CT, and one other one. They’re still ahead of that pace, by virtue of the split in CT.

They played awful tonight, but this is in no way worse than the Maine loss last year. By KenPom ratings, that was #37 losing to #208, this was #161 losing to #229.

This is a rebuilding year, by all accounts. If you’re under the illusion that this team is making even the NIT, you’re setting yourself up for disappointment.

This is something for these guys to build on, and hopefully they’re a better team for it.[/quote]

What you are saying is that the loss isn’t as bad because our team isn’t as good? That’s a reasonable statement.

However, at least at the moment, based on the same stats, Lafayette is the worst team that we have lost to in the last decade or so.

BTW - we are #1 in the country in one stat.

That’s percentage of points scored on us via the three point shot.

41.7% of the points that we have given up have come via our opponents making a three.

Something to keep in mind is that that is not a value judgment stat. It says nothing about the overall quality of our defense, it’s just a characteristic of our defense. UConn, Villanova, and Oklahoma are all pretty decent teams and they rank in the top ten in that same stat.

Not surprisingly, we give up the lowest percentage of points on two point field goals of any team in the country.

Basically, that says that teams haven’t been working it inside on us but have just bombed away from beyond the arc.


#3

Box Score…per Lafayette site.

http://www.goleopards.com/sports/m-baskbl/stats/2011-2012/lcgame09.html


#4

I believe the replay is at 4:00 p.m. today on the BTN.


#5

Can we start a petition for them not to run it?


#6
[quote="tundra, post:4, topic:2905"]I believe the replay is at 4:00 p.m. today on the BTN.[/quote]

Can we start a petition for them not to run it?

Maybe they will pre-empt it with something about Sandusky…

Nevermind, I hope they show hoops :-[


#7
[quote="Chris11, post:1, topic:2905"][url=http://pennstatehoops.com/talk/index.php/topic,2869.0.html]http://pennstatehoops.com/talk/index.php/topic,2869.0.html[/url]

From the poll in this preseason thread, most (19 of 22) expected 8 wins or less out-of-conference. They’ll get to 8 if they beat Mt. St. Mary’s and Cornell.

Personally, I was expecting 7-6: losses to SJU, Duquesne, Ole Miss, a sweep in CT, and one other one. They’re still ahead of that pace, by virtue of the split in CT.

They played awful tonight, but this is in no way worse than the Maine loss last year. By KenPom ratings, that was #37 losing to #208, this was #161 losing to #229.

This is a rebuilding year, by all accounts. If you’re under the illusion that this team is making even the NIT, you’re setting yourself up for disappointment.

This is something for these guys to build on, and hopefully they’re a better team for it.[/quote]

What you are saying is that the loss isn’t as bad because our team isn’t as good? That’s a reasonable statement.

However, at least at the moment, based on the same stats, Lafayette is the worst team that we have lost to in the last decade or so.

BTW - we are #1 in the country in one stat.

That’s percentage of points scored on us via the three point shot.

41.7% of the points that we have given up have come via our opponents making a three.

Something to keep in mind is that that is not a value judgment stat. It says nothing about the overall quality of our defense, it’s just a characteristic of our defense. UConn, Villanova, and Oklahoma are all pretty decent teams and they rank in the top ten in that same stat.

Not surprisingly, we give up the lowest percentage of points on two point field goals of any team in the country.

Basically, that says that teams haven’t been working it inside on us but have just bombed away from beyond the arc.

That’s surprising given our lack of inside presence! I would think that opposing coaching staff would prefer to work the ball inside for higher percentage shots than simply bomb away even if we give them the looks. What am I missing here?


#8

I have NOT eyeballed the game yet. But, I will give a “general” comment to the last several posts. Basketball is NOT a board game (like chess.)
It’s not as simple as saying…just do this (work it inside) …or just do that (guard the perimeter).etc, etc etc.
If it was then geek squad guys at your local computer store would all be great Basketball coaches making millions per year.
BUT real coaches have basketball watching and playing experience. Remember the other team has coaches also. The other team has players also. It’s a competition!!
In the games I have seen PSU have played their hearts out. It does not take any kind of genius (math or basketball) to see the talent level of the present PSU team. I just trust that things will get better.
And…yeah, I will watch the game at 4:00.


#9
BTW - we are #1 in the country in one stat.

That’s percentage of points scored on us via the three point shot.

41.7% of the points that we have given up have come via our opponents making a three.

Something to keep in mind is that that is not a value judgment stat. It says nothing about the overall quality of our defense, it’s just a characteristic of our defense. UConn, Villanova, and Oklahoma are all pretty decent teams and they rank in the top ten in that same stat.

Not surprisingly, we give up the lowest percentage of points on two point field goals of any team in the country.

Basically, that says that teams haven’t been working it inside on us but have just bombed away from beyond the arc.

That’s surprising given our lack of inside presence! I would think that opposing coaching staff would prefer to work the ball inside for higher percentage shots than simply bomb away even if we give them the looks. What am I missing here?

Surprised me too, which is why I posted it.


#10

[quote=“MarkH, post:6, topic:2905”]Maybe they will pre-empt it with something about Sandusky…

Nevermind, I hope they show hoops :-[[/quote]

While funny (though you have to be careful about “funny” around here lately), this brings up a good point.

These are games, just games. What has happened at Penn State in the past month has sort of changed the entire playing field concerning what is important.

Wins and losses are everything to a lot of players, coaches and fans. But after November 5th, my whole perspective on such things has changed drastically.

As a youth coach I’ve won my share of championships and had a number of undefeated teams in football, baseball, basketball and soccer. But I’ve learned more and so have my kids on teams that were more challenged. And it’s through those tough times that you learn and you grow to where one win or one loss doesn’t consume you anymore. You learn that losing a game or two games or twenty games doesn’t matter in the grand scheme of things. It’s what one takes from those losses to better oneself.

And then there is something even greater…

In the past year our local Little League has had to deal with the death of an 11 year old from a stupid “choking game” that his friends liked to play…a horrible accident that still haunts this community. For the past few weeks, one of my son’s former teammates and my former assistant coach’s son is fighting his own battle in the hospital with a mysterious illness. And just yesterday, I got word that one of my fellow Little League coaches just lost his battle with cancer.

We put so much pressure on ourselves and our kids to win, win, win. And when things don’t happen the way we want them to, we react in silly ways. We get depressed over trivial things like losing to Lafayette. Yet it doesn’t make me any less of a fan by not wanting to kick the dog after every tough loss for my team(s).

We all want the best for this team and we all want them to win every time they step out onto that court. The Maine loss, yes that was tough. But the boys came back to beat Indiana in Bloomington the next time out, something that probably wouldn’t have happened without the loss to Maine.

Maybe because of this loss, this team will come out and surprise a few folks at Duquesne this weekend. And if that happens then I will point to last night as one of if not THE main reasons for the win.

And if they do come out and win at Duquesne, it will be just that, a win. Nothing more, nothing less.

As we have learned over the past month at PSU, there are a lot of bigger issues in this world right now and i’ve learned to use sports as a release from those issues. Sports to me is now a couple hours a day when I can just smile and, win or lose, know that there is still some good in this world.

Perspective…it’s a great thing to have when things in your life go awry.


#11

OK, now that I’m done waxing poetic, allow me to add this…

The Illini were down 39-30 last night at home to St Bonaventure with 5:20 remaining in the game. Yes, they had scored 30 in almost 35 minutes. Brandon Paul then took over and sparked an 18-4 Illini run to end the game and give his team a 48-43 win.

But for the first 35 minutes it was as ugly if not more so than “38-33”.

It happens. Stuff like this happens to teams. Sometimes you have a player step up, like the Illini had Brandon Paul and sometimes you don’t…won’t name any PSU names.

You pick up and move on.


#12
[quote="UncleLar, post:2, topic:2905"]BTW - we are #1 in the country in one stat.

That’s percentage of points scored on us via the three point shot.

41.7% of the points that we have given up have come via our opponents making a three.

Something to keep in mind is that that is not a value judgment stat. It says nothing about the overall quality of our defense, it’s just a characteristic of our defense. UConn, Villanova, and Oklahoma are all pretty decent teams and they rank in the top ten in that same stat.

Not surprisingly, we give up the lowest percentage of points on two point field goals of any team in the country.

Basically, that says that teams haven’t been working it inside on us but have just bombed away from beyond the arc.[/quote]

That’s surprising given our lack of inside presence! I would think that opposing coaching staff would prefer to work the ball inside for higher percentage shots than simply bomb away even if we give them the looks. What am I missing here?

Surprised me too, which is why I posted it.

I haven’t really taken notice to Penn State’s overall defensive schemes, but I would guess that they would play a lot of zone to protect their lack of interior presence.

Everyone knows that the best way to attack a zone is to shoot over it. Add to that the fact that our backcourt has a serious lack of size, and this is the mix you get.

As per ESPN, Penn State is also 318th in the counrty in FG% (.381)

BTW… Cornell is ranked 24th in the country in 3PT% (.416). Maybe be a bad omen.


#13

[quote=“Skeeza, post:12, topic:2905”]I haven’t really taken notice to Penn State’s overall defensive schemes, but I would guess that they would play a lot of zone to protect their lack of interior presence.

Everyone knows that the best way to attack a zone is to shoot over it. Add to that the fact that our backcourt has a serious lack of size, and this is the mix you get. [/quote]

One - I haven’t noticed that we’ve been playing much zone at all.
Two - Our front court has much more of a size problem than the back court. Glover and/or Marshall, both of whom are 6’4", have started at the two guard spot for four of the last five games.


#14

[quote=“UncleLar, post:13, topic:2905”]One - I haven’t noticed that we’ve been playing much zone at all.
Two - Our front court has much more of a size problem than the back court. Glover and/or Marshall, both of whom are 6’4", have started at the two guard spot for four of the last five games.[/quote]

That’s what I’ve noticed too Larry. We usually show pressure in the 1-2-1-1 and then drop back into a man. With the exception of Frazier, our backcourt has tremendous size. Marshall, Glover and Woodyard are big guards. Even Lewis has ok size for a PG. Although now that I type it out, we are a little small with Frazier and the PG, Lewis at the SG and Glover/Marshall at the SF/Wing.

We’re getting beat by dribble penetration and good ball movement, IMO.


#15

I braved the snow and warnings of impending doom to drive 100+ miles to the game and here are my observations.

  1. I think this is our first loss to a team that had no tattoos.

  2. This was a bad loss. There’s no way to rationalize it as anything other than a bad loss. The only good news is that it’s early December and not early March.

  3. .130/.328/.615 will win you zero games.

  4. They killed us with 3’s. Way too many wide open threes. And we knew they were going to shoot threes all night. Jerardi said as much in the pre-game. It took us almost 30 minutes to start to pressure their 3’s. Once we started to pressure their 3’s, their percentage dropped off.

  5. Poor shooting is often the result of tired legs or tired bodies (i.e. flu or something like that). If I were Pat, I’d give them today off.

  6. Anyone know why Sasa only played 13 minutes? Was it just me, or did it look like he was wearing a heavier knee brace?

  7. I was sitting down close to where Ross got his T. I didn’t see anything that would rate a T. What did I miss?

  8. Nice game by Jermaine Marshall. 5-13 from the field including 1-4 from 3-Land is ok, but 9-11 is excellent and is exactly the type of FT percentage the entire team should strive for.

  9. Really nice ball movement by Laf all night.

  10. Laf only shot 30% from 3 pt range, but on an expected value basis, 30% from 3 range is equivalent to 45% from 2 pt range and 45% will keep you in many games. Actually, they were closer to 50% for almost 30 minutes until we started to pressure the 3 pt shooters more. 50% from 3 land is like 75% from 2 pt range. Tough to beat a team that shoots that well.

  11. If the game went another 5 minutes, I think we win. Laf was running out of gas the last 5 - 10 minutes of the game. But the game is 40 minutes long and you have to win in 40.

  12. As poorly as we played, we still had a chance to win it. We missed a wide open three, and had our pocket picked after a defensive rebound when we were down 2. Laf quickly converted that into an easy basket and were up 4.

  13. We really missed Jon Graham again. Hope he can be back by January.

A real downer for probably my last game of the season - OUTCONUS for the next three months.

G/S OUT


#16
One - I haven't noticed that we've been playing much zone at all. Two - Our front court has much more of a size problem than the back court. Glover and/or Marshall, both of whom are 6'4", have started at the two guard spot for four of the last five games.

That’s what I’ve noticed too Larry. We usually show pressure in the 1-2-1-1 and then drop back into a man. With the exception of Frazier, our backcourt has tremendous size. Marshall, Glover and Woodyard are big guards. Even Lewis has ok size for a PG. Although now that I type it out, we are a little small with Frazier and the PG, Lewis at the SG and Glover/Marshall at the SF/Wing.

We’re getting beat by dribble penetration and good ball movement, IMO.

Minus Timmy we don’t have anyone who moves to quick. I think the additions of Akosa, Brandon, and DJ will help in that area next year.

#17

[quote=“Great Santini, post:15, topic:2905”]A real downer for probably my last game of the season - OUTCONUS for the next three months.

G/S OUT[/quote]

Where are you headed to?


#18

Heading to Hawaii. 8)


#19
One - I haven't noticed that we've been playing much zone at all. Two - Our front court has much more of a size problem than the back court. Glover and/or Marshall, both of whom are 6'4", have started at the two guard spot for four of the last five games.

That’s what I’ve noticed too Larry. We usually show pressure in the 1-2-1-1 and then drop back into a man. With the exception of Frazier, our backcourt has tremendous size. Marshall, Glover and Woodyard are big guards. Even Lewis has ok size for a PG. Although now that I type it out, we are a little small with Frazier and the PG, Lewis at the SG and Glover/Marshall at the SF/Wing.

We’re getting beat by dribble penetration and good ball movement, IMO.

I have noticed quite a few times where our guards get burned because they miss rotating to the open shooter on defense. Saw Trey miss his rotation a few times, along with cam.

Just didn’t know how much of it they play.


#20

Youth and inexperience. Not making excuses, or using this as a season-long crutch, but our entire roster is learning. Yeah, Timmy started and played big minutes last year, but coming into the season he had very little game experience in being “the man”, too.

Ideally, IMO, it’s best to only have 2/3 guys that you need to focus on their development through game experience - for PSU it’s our entire team. (with exception of Frazier - but again, he’s only got 10 games worth of learning his new role)

There’s a huge difference in playing real D-1 games vs. playing/shooting in practice, or pick-up games. So, to me that’s where the growing will come… experience. I’m still hoping for it to “click” for a couple of the guys, and maybe that would have a snowball effect on the team. But practically speaking it’s going to be a very volatile season. (I hate being ‘practical’)