PennStateHoops.com Discussion Forum

Penn State getting respect (kinda?) Bracketology Edition


#1

Yes, another one of these threads…

1 vote in the AP, none in the coaches poll. But what really grinds my gears is Joe Lunardi’s latest Bracketology: http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology/_/iteration/51

I can’t for the life of me understand how he has Baylor in the field of 68. Their RPI is in the 90s, their SOS is in the 100s and they only have one good win (45 RPI OKState). REALLY JOE? Jeez.

I agree with the rest of Joe’s bracket besides Butler and Gonzaga. I don’t have either in - they could be knee jerk reactions to some horrible losses. I have Butler, Gonzaga, Wichita State and Baylor all out (he has them in) and I have Miami, Oklahoma State, Washington State and Penn State in their places. Now that I reconsider, I think I’m wrong on Washington State’s part. Although they have beat Gonzaga and Baylor, but lost to Butler (all teams in this discussion).

Either way you spin it, there are around 6 teams (at most) ahead of PSU, at least according to quasi-Lunardi. There is absolutely no way Baylor is IN, or even close to IN. I’m not sure why people are so in love with them, it must be the name.

The common trait between all these teams is that their resumes are flawed. Butler has some real bad losses, Gonzaga has real bad losses, Washington State has poor numbers, Penn State has a bad OOC, UAB has poor numbers and no signature wins, Wichita State has no good wins, South Carolina has poor numbers, UCF has bad losses and an abysmal start to the CUSA season and Richmond has bad numbers and bad losses.

To be optimistic: what puts Penn State ahead of most of these teams (in my book) is that they have 3 things: good wins, a solid RPI (will get better), and a great SOS. A road win would really help as well as a better looking record, which in turn will give a better finish in the B10 standings.

What I’m trying to say is that Bracketology fever is back at Penn State. Some how, some way, this team is right there. The NCAA tournament expansion couldn’t have come a better time.


#2

We’re right there, but it really doesn’t matter right now. We need 10 wins, period. The other pieces of the puzzle will fall into place if we get to that magic little number. Anything less and we have no real room to complain about how things shake down.

Don’t get me wrong, I love a little bracketology as much as the next guy (probably moreso actually)… but it doesn’t really matter what the rest of the country does if we don’t take care of business. Playing with good teams and beating them is a much different story, and we can’t start feeling good about our chances just because we’ve won a couple of good games and played some others close. That trend has to continue the rest of the season, to the tune of something that’s only been done a handful of times in school history and against some decent odds still.

Let’s just keep things in perspective, I guess is the point here. 10 wins. That’s all that matters.


#3

Yep, all of this means nothing if they can’t win games.


#4

To be more specific it is probably going to take 10 Big Ten wins + 1 BTT win and not just 10 wins total against Big Ten teams.


#5

I can’t see how a BTT game is going to hurt us if we get to 10 big 10 wins in the regular season. I don’t think we’d be all that close to the bubble at that point.

If we were at 9 on the other hand, I think 2 BTT wins might not be enough to get us in.

But as I said, it doesn’t really matter. 10 is the number that matters, or in our case now… 7 would be the magic number. 7-4, anyway… anyhow. Just get it.


#6
[quote="bballguy, post:4, topic:1830"]To be more specific it is probably going to take 10 Big Ten wins + 1 BTT win and not just 10 wins total against Big Ten teams.[/quote]

I can’t see how a BTT game is going to hurt us if we get to 10 big 10 wins in the regular season. I don’t think we’d be all that close to the bubble at that point.

If we were at 9 on the other hand, I think 2 BTT wins might not be enough to get us in.

But as I said, it doesn’t really matter. 10 is the number that matters, or in our case now… 7 would be the magic number. 7-4, anyway… anyhow. Just get it.

So does no one think it can be done at 9-9 and 2 BTT wins? It’s possible that 9-9 gets us the 6 seed; a 6-10 matchup, followed by the 3 seed isn’t the scariest road.


#7

Noobd - Jerry Palm doesn’t even have Baylor in his first 4 out in today’s bracket.

Palm also touched upon the weakness of at-large teams at the bottom of the bracket (though he does it every single year at this time, he feels even more strongly this season). He talked about the fact that this is the weakest ACC in 18 years, the SEC West is awful (said that if it were it’s own conference, it would be ranked at 15th behind the Ivy), the Pac 10 is still weak, and even Gonzaga/St Mary’s/Butler/MVC are all very lacking. Here is how he closed…

"The Mountain West is doing well of course, and the Atlantic 10 may scrounge a couple at-large bids, but it’s hard to see where the quality is coming from to fill the bottom of a bracket this year. So last week, when I said, “I don’t think there will be 11 Big East teams in the final bracket in March,” I may have jumped the gun. The committee has to take somebody. "

All of this could mean good things for us if we can play our way into the mix.


#8

Frats, I agree completely. I think teams like us will benefit the most from the lack of “tourny worthy” teams to will out the last 10 or so spots. I do think we’ll need to win a few B10 tourney games though, I don’t think 17-12 (10-8) gets us in by itself.


#9

Thank you frats. Palm is way more accurate than Lunardi, but he has that ESPN brand name behind him. I’m sure you’re aware of the whole Lunardi taking Palm’s bracket after he releases his discussion. I’ve mentioned it a few times.

A lot of the teams around the bubble have very weak resumes. Look at all of the ACC bubble teams. 90 RPI / 100 SOS’. SEC is very weak. The A-10 may only have 2, 3 at most. BE may very well have more than 9 teams… I can’t see anyone outside of Marquette, Cincy or St. John’s slipping OUT. Moving on to the Pac-10… 3 or 4 bids. Mid majors? Not many besides Wichita State / Missouri State in the MVC. Butler and maybe a team out of the CAA.

Craftsy is right with his whole 10 win thing, but don’t underestimate the weakness of the field. This team is 10-8 with a bad OOC and they are right in the mix.


#10

[quote=“noobd, post:9, topic:1830”]Thank you frats. Palm is way more accurate than Lunardi, but he has that ESPN brand name behind him. I’m sure you’re aware of the whole Lunardi taking Palm’s bracket after he releases his discussion. I’ve mentioned it a few times.

A lot of the teams around the bubble have very weak resumes. Look at all of the ACC bubble teams. 90 RPI / 100 SOS’. SEC is very weak. The A-10 may only have 2, 3 at most. BE may very well have more than 9 teams… I can’t see anyone outside of Marquette, Cincy or St. John’s slipping OUT. Moving on to the Pac-10… 3 or 4 bids. Mid majors? Not many besides Wichita State / Missouri State in the MVC. Butler and maybe a team out of the CAA.

Craftsy is right with his whole 10 win thing, but don’t underestimate the weakness of the field. This team is 10-8 with a bad OOC and they are right in the mix.[/quote]

I think the “bad ooc” thing is kind of silly at this point. An extremely good SOS is going to outweigh an OOC with no good wins and 1 bad loss. Even a good OOC meant we would need 9 wins in the b10 to really stand a chance of dancing. Hell, even going undefeated in the OOC and 8-10 might screw us out of things.


#11

[quote=“noobd, post:9, topic:1830”]Thank you frats. Palm is way more accurate than Lunardi, but he has that ESPN brand name behind him. I’m sure you’re aware of the whole Lunardi taking Palm’s bracket after he releases his discussion. I’ve mentioned it a few times.

A lot of the teams around the bubble have very weak resumes. Look at all of the ACC bubble teams. 90 RPI / 100 SOS’. SEC is very weak. The A-10 may only have 2, 3 at most. BE may very well have more than 9 teams… I can’t see anyone outside of Marquette, Cincy or St. John’s slipping OUT. Moving on to the Pac-10… 3 or 4 bids. Mid majors? Not many besides Wichita State / Missouri State in the MVC. Butler and maybe a team out of the CAA.

Craftsy is right with his whole 10 win thing, but don’t underestimate the weakness of the field. This team is 10-8 with a bad OOC and they are right in the mix.[/quote]

The rumors that I’ve heard about Lunardi’s bracket focus more on the possibility that he gets leaks from the tournament committee than it does his stealing Palm’s bracket. I think the former is a lot more likely than the latter (and frankly, I don’t see anything wrong with it - if he’s got contacts that will give him insight into what’s going on in the selection room, he ought to be taking advantage of them).


#12
[quote="noobd, post:9, topic:1830"]Thank you frats. Palm is way more accurate than Lunardi, but he has that ESPN brand name behind him. I'm sure you're aware of the whole Lunardi taking Palm's bracket after he releases his discussion. I've mentioned it a few times.

A lot of the teams around the bubble have very weak resumes. Look at all of the ACC bubble teams. 90 RPI / 100 SOS’. SEC is very weak. The A-10 may only have 2, 3 at most. BE may very well have more than 9 teams… I can’t see anyone outside of Marquette, Cincy or St. John’s slipping OUT. Moving on to the Pac-10… 3 or 4 bids. Mid majors? Not many besides Wichita State / Missouri State in the MVC. Butler and maybe a team out of the CAA.

Craftsy is right with his whole 10 win thing, but don’t underestimate the weakness of the field. This team is 10-8 with a bad OOC and they are right in the mix.[/quote]

The rumors that I’ve heard about Lunardi’s bracket focus more on the possibility that he gets leaks from the tournament committee than it does his stealing Palm’s bracket. I think the former is a lot more likely than the latter (and frankly, I don’t see anything wrong with it - if he’s got contacts that will give him insight into what’s going on in the selection room, he ought to be taking advantage of them).

That’s exactly what I’ve heard as well (I’m sure that you’re also in Jerry’s “Yahoo Subscriber Group” and get the daily e-mails where people love to bring up Lunardi’s last minute changes, so we may have heard it from the same place).

If Joe Lunardi was getting info and somehow disclosed that fact, I’d be cool with it. However, I think it’s pretty shady to do a “bracket projection” if you’re getting last minute info from inside the room and using that to make your prediction look better. I think it all went back to a situation about 4-5 years ago where Lunardi made two last minute changes to his bracket on Selection Sunday saying something along the lines of “the more I’ve thought about it”, and one of those teams that he added was something like 3-4 teams outside of his Saturday night bracket. Sure enough, on Selection Sunday, he nailed all 65 teams. It could be random luck or maybe he really did think about it again (and I really like Lunardi and want to give him the benefit of the doubt), but it certainly got the fans of Palm (and any other “Bracketologist”) all worked up.


#13

Agreed. It might not have been a good OOC to sell tickets, but it was nearly ideal from an RPI standpoint and was very far from a “bad OOC”.


#14
[quote="Craftsy21, post:10, topic:1830"]I think the "bad ooc" thing is kind of silly at this point.[/quote]

Agreed. It might not have been a good OOC to sell tickets, but it was nearly ideal from an RPI standpoint and was very far from a “bad OOC”.

It might end up being one of the best OOC schedule’s in the country.


#15

[quote=“frats, post:12, topic:1830”]That’s exactly what I’ve heard as well (I’m sure that you’re also in Jerry’s “Yahoo Subscriber Group” and get the daily e-mails where people love to bring up Lunardi’s last minute changes, so we may have heard it from the same place).

If Joe Lunardi was getting info and somehow disclosed that fact, I’d be cool with it. However, I think it’s pretty shady to do a “bracket projection” if you’re getting last minute info from inside the room and using that to make your prediction look better. I think it all went back to a situation about 4-5 years ago where Lunardi made two last minute changes to his bracket on Selection Sunday saying something along the lines of “the more I’ve thought about it”, and one of those teams that he added was something like 3-4 teams outside of his Saturday night bracket. Sure enough, on Selection Sunday, he nailed all 65 teams. It could be random luck or maybe he really did think about it again (and I really like Lunardi and want to give him the benefit of the doubt), but it certainly got the fans of Palm (and any other “Bracketologist”) all worked up.[/quote]

Except if he acknowledges that he has a source, that source probably dries up.


#16

I think noobd just worded our OOC wrong. I don’t think he thinks it’s a bad OOC, I think he means it’s “bad” in the sense that we didn’t get any big wins.


#17

It seems like 10-8 and a win in the BTT is what we need…does that mean we want to finish 6th and get a 1st round game against #11. Just our luck to go 10-8, finish 5th, finally get a bye in the BTT, draw Michigan State, lose and end up in the NIT. :’(


#18

I would keep an eye on Duquesne. If they win the Atlantic-10, that will look like a good OOC win.


#19

No it won’t. A big10 team with dreams of dancing is supposed to beat an a10 team 99/100 times (especially at home), and they are nowhere near the class of that 1 percent of a-10 teams that could be a justifiable loss… like Xavier a few years back, or St. Joe’s in 2004.


#20

NBC’s Beyond the Arc has us as one of the last four in (quick trip to Dayton anyone).

http://beyondthearc.nbcsports.com/2011/01/24/a-few-good-wins-get-you-in-our-latest-ncaa-tournament-projections/related

We just might benefit from the fact that this appears to be a bad year for the non-majors. Nobody appears to be stepping up to lay claim to at-large bids, so you’ll have lots of one bid only conference champions. That helps us big time.