That’s impossible to answer without knowing the results of the other games being played - and even then you need a computer to calculate what impact it would have. I’m aware of at least one online simulation program that’s out there where you can plug in the what ifs, but even that one doesn’t become available until after this weekend (there are just two many games left - or more accurately phrased, the permutations of the individual conference tournaments make a what-if analysis difficult, if not practically impossible, until conference best of three quarterfinal games are over ).
I can also tell you that the bonus point calculation only applies to the RPI portion of the Pairwise Calculation, while the a win has the potential to impact all three of the criteria used in the pairwise (if I had to hazard a guess two wins by Wisconsin might even move them ahead of us in the pairwise - it would be close).
The pairwise calculation isn’t a simple plug-in the numbers formula and a ranking number spits out. It’s closer to a simulation run. Basically, you are comparing your team with every other team based on three factors. Your head-to-head results, your record against common opponents, and your RPI (with RPI being the tiebreaker).
For every other team, you make the following calculation. You start with head to head results, then acting as if each of the other two factors were each a game, you add in a win or a loss based on the results of the two comparisons, If after those adjustments are made you have the better record, then you get a Pairwise Point (if you are tied, then the team with the better RPI gets the Pairwise Point).
Let’s take a look at how that comparison goes right now with Wisconsin.
Our head to head record against Wisconsin is 2-0. Against mutual opponents Wisconsin is 12-3-0, we are 8-7-1. Wisconsin wins that comparison, so our head-to-head record is adjusted to be 2-1. Wisconsin’s RPI is .5431, ours is .5585. We win that comparison, so our adjusted head-to-head record is 3-1. Because we have the better record, we get the Pairwise Point.
Do that same calculation for the other 58 teams and you have our Pairwise ranking, Penn State wins 51 of those comparisons, loses 8, that means we are 9th in the pairwise.
Now what happens if Wisconsin sweeps two from us. We now start off the comparison at 2-2. I don’t know what the exact results of the common opponents would be but there’s no way that we could overcome the deficit that we have there so Wisconsin would once again win that comparison point, so our adjusted head-to-head record would now be 2-3. Then you would have to do the RPI comparison (unfortunately, you can’t do that calculation without knowing what the other schools did). If Wisconsin’s RPI would move above us with two wins (and it very well could), that would then make the head-to-head record between us a tie at 3-3 - and because RPI is the tie-breaker, then Wisconsin would pick up the Pairwise Point and we would not.
That is the only way that Wisconsin could pick up our joint Pairwise Point though. Any other combination, i,e, a split, PSU winning two, any ties, would mean that we still get the point.
But those other combinations could make a difference with our comparisons with the other 58 teams. Exactly what difference they would make would be hard to tell without actually going through the exercise - the most difficult part being a way to estimate/calculate the RPI.
So this is just another long winded way of saying, while I know how it works, I can’t really do the calculation without cranking the numbers through a computer program…
I can tell you this though. There are computer models out there. CHN does a Monte Carlo Simulation of 20,000 runs. In those runs, Penn State finishes in the top sixteen, 97% of the time. Of course, finishing in the Top 16 doesn’t automatically get you a bid because of automatic qualifiers. However, 14th place in the Pairwise is almost always in and according to CHN’s computers, PSU has a 95% chance of finishing in the top 14.
So, I like our odds.