OT: PSU Football


#8341

If Rutgers has that deer in the headlights look right out of the chute, we need to run over them and not stop to see if they get out of the road.


#8342

Remember that OSU doesn’t have to be the team that beats UM. IU can be the Wolverine dagger, too.


#8343

[quote=“NittanyIllini, post:8337, topic:1119”]I’m reminded every year of how people get so bent out of shape when the college football playoff rankings come out the first week of November. I always tell those people to come back and complain to me the 1st of December, when still nothing is decided.

So going off of this week’s rankings…

  1. Alabama
  2. Ohio State
  3. Michigan - need to lose to Ohio State for PSU to even sniff a playoff.
  4. Clemson
  5. Louisville - gone
  6. Washington - still has Wazzu in Apple Cup and Pac 12 title game in which to slip up.
  7. Wisconsin
  8. Penn State

I now have to believe that the winner of the Big Ten title game will get that fourth spot. If it all falls Penn State’s way, then I will wake up in my own bed on December 31st and get into my own car and drive the 15 minutes down to the Georgia Dome to see them play Alabama.

What was once just a pipe dream, is now looking more real by the day.

Like tjb noted…the fact that we’re still in the conversation on November 18th is just plain unbelievable.[/quote]

If all falls Penn State’s way, we could actually be the #2 seed. Believe it or not, if we win out, we’ll stack up quite favorably against either Ohio State or Clemson according to the selection committee’s criteria.

The selection committee’s protocol is fairly clear cut. It says “Strength of schedule, head-to-head competition and championships won must be specifically applied as tie-breakers between teams that look similar”.

The question that will have to be asked is “do Penn State, Ohio State, and Clemson look similar?”

If the answer is yes, then Ohio State slips to the back of the bus because they will not have won a championship and they will have failed the head-to-head competition with a loss to Penn State. That gives them the fourth seed and puts Penn State and Clemson up for the second seed.

Since they both will be conference champs, will have not played each other, and both will have lost to their one common opponent (Pitt), the tiebreaker could be strength of schedule.

Penn State will have played, and beaten, one of the other semifinalists, #2 Ohio State, so that will be a big feather in their cap.

Penn State’s other top opponents will have been #3 Michigan and #7 Wisconsin.

Clemson’s top opponents will have been #5 Louisville, #15 Auburn, #17 Florida St (neither Va Tech nor UNC, Clemson ACC championship opponent are ranked).

Louisville’s loss to Houston last night means that they are going to drop from #5. However, in order for PSU to win the B1G championship both Michigan and Wisconsin will be tagged with additional losses so they will drop too. The question is will they drop below Louisville, Auburn, and Florida State? My answer is probably not. So PSU could easily have three opponents all ranked higher than Clemson’s three best opponents. That could give the strength of schedule nod to Penn State over Clemson, thus giving them the #2 seed.

The key factor here will be does Penn State’s nine game season ending winning streak when compared to Ohio State’s five and Clemson’s three game winning streaks make up the difference for the one extra loss that they have? I’d say it’s definitely arguable that it does and that OSU, PSU, and Clemson should be considered teams “that look similar”.

Regardless of whether we top Clemson, if the selection committee follows their protocol, Ohio State is quite likely going to be the #4 seed.


#8344

What about Michigan? I would be jacked if I was a Michigan fan and they were bumped by another 2 loss team that they had routed. Hopefully the committee likes league championships more than head-to-head.


#8345

It would be hard to justify Michigan as one of the 4 best teams in America if they go 2-2 in November.


#8346
The selection committee's protocol is fairly clear cut. It says "Strength of schedule, head-to-head competition and championships won must be specifically applied as tie-breakers between teams that look similar".
What about Michigan? I would be jacked if I was a Michigan fan and they were bumped by another 2 loss team that they had routed. Hopefully the committee likes league championships more than head-to-head.

Michigan lost at Iowa…DONE (if they also lose to OSU). Our two losses came in September, on the road, without any of our starting linebackers. AND…the refs chucked out Brandon Smith in the Michigan game for trying to intercept a pass. Screw Michigan.

I’d be more jacked as a Michigan fan that my school can only win a half a national title since 1948. That’s sad in its own right.

I commented above on this thread that our Pitt loss is now looking a lot better…especially with the aforementioned injuries that we had at the time. McSorley doesn’t toss that INT into the end zone at the end, and we win that game, either in regulation or OT, I feel.

Lar, I like your reasoning. I just think that if OSU beats Michigan, they will solidify their spot at #2 and the precedent will be set of awarding a non-conference champ from now on. Just my gut feeling. I mean, to look at it from OSU’s perspective…they had one slip up this entire year…and really, that was due to one play, Marcus Allen’s blocked FG. We don’t get that, and OSU is undefeated right now.


#8347
[quote="UncleLar, post:8343, topic:1119"]The selection committee's protocol is fairly clear cut. It says "Strength of schedule, head-to-head competition and championships won must be specifically applied as tie-breakers between teams that look similar".[/quote] What about Michigan? I would be jacked if I was a Michigan fan and they were bumped by another 2 loss team that they had routed. Hopefully the committee likes league championships more than head-to-head.

Michigan lost at Iowa…DONE (if they also lose to OSU). Our two losses came in September, on the road, without any of our starting linebackers. AND…the refs chucked out Brandon Smith in the Michigan game for trying to intercept a pass. Screw Michigan.

I’d be more jacked as a Michigan fan that my school can only win a half a national title since 1948. That’s sad in its own right.

I commented above on this thread that our Pitt loss is now looking a lot better…especially with the aforementioned injuries that we had at the time. McSorley doesn’t toss that INT into the end zone at the end, and we win that game, either in regulation or OT, I feel.

Lar, I like your reasoning. I just think that if OSU beats Michigan, they will solidify their spot at #2 and the precedent will be set of awarding a non-conference champ from now on. Just my gut feeling. I mean, to look at it from OSU’s perspective…they had one slip up this entire year…and really, that was due to one play, Marcus Allen’s blocked FG. We don’t get that, and OSU is undefeated right now.

I know where you are coming from, and I certainly feel that Ohio State probably is the second best team in the country. That said, putting them there would fly in the face of everything that the NCAA has talked about regarding the playoff system. They have been very clear that their intent is to reward conference championships and that head-to-head results are an all important tiebreaker (a particular theory that I don’t subscribe to btw - I’ve always been a bigger fan of evaluating your body of work rather than emphasizing any one particular game, which is what head-to-head does).

I do think Ohio State’s body of work makes them #2, I just don’t think the committee will come to that conclusion.


#8348
[quote="UncleLar, post:8333, topic:1119"]Houston doing PSU a bit of a favor at the moment. They are hammering Louisville 31-0 approaching halftime. A Houston win would eliminate any chance that Louisville has of claiming a national championship playoff spot of a Penn State team with a Big Ten championship in their pocket (personally I think a Big Ten champ PSU bumps Louisville any way but this would make it a no brainer).[/quote]

Who can believe this season …, that we’re in this conversation is unbelievable.

It is certainly a year for unexpected developments.

Given our problems with the offensive line I will be pleased if we are able to beat both Rutgers and MSU. I’m mostly concerned about the MSU game.


#8349

Anyone going to the Rutgers game with an extra single ticket? StubHub seems steep. PM me if you can help out.


#8350

There are single tics here that seem to be a bit cheaper than stubhub tickets.

http://www.vividseats.com/mobile/Production.action?production.productionId=1889051


#8351

Unless you specifically want to sit with PSU fans, you can surely get a single at the stadium for cheap


#8352

That’s my plan … I’m sure that will work out.


#8353

My experience at Rutgers didn’t match the experiences that seem to be bandied about the boards this weekend. Everyone was nice, there were not many profanities hurled (one kid yelled “F Penn State”) as he walked out as PSU scored another TD. I had one of the few seats under a roof, so it was dry and tolerable.

A lot of Penn State’s kids were dancing (and quite entertainingly!) to a rap or hip-hop thing that was blaring during one of the interminable timeouts in the second half. Some coaches seemed to join them. It was freezing and more than miserable out there and I thought that it was a good way to stay warm and try to maintain some enthusiasm for a pretty challenge-free game. At the same time, I thought some RU fans might take offense, and they - and apparently the radio announcers - did.

In the fourth quarter, Penn State would m make a first down and the ref would start the clock as soon as the tackle was made. The chain gang would race to get in place before the next play was called.

Hope Mahon is back for MSU.


#8354

If Mahon is back (and I’m already assuming McGovern will be since he was dressed for Rutgers), I expect that he’ll be at left tackle with Wright staying at right tackle. That would be a pretty solid front. I don’t know what to make of Michigan State. They seem to have a pretty good roster. They played Michigan and OSU close, but got beaten by Illinois and Maryland. I can understand getting up for OSU and Michigan. I hope the Land Grant Trophy isn’t much motivation for them now that they have been completely eliminated from bowl contention.

I wouldn’t say this on a Rutgers forum because it’s too mean, but they should be more offended by the play of their team than anything PSU did on the sidelines – especially after one of their fans tossed a baseball onto the field during a play. Heck, there were no Rutgers fans left in the stadium to offend.

They have been outscored 224-0 in their 4 games against PSU, OSU, UM and MSU. They have been outgained by more than a mile in those games. They averaged less than 100 total yards in those 4. In two other games, they only managed to score 7 points. Even with two games of 32 and 27 points, their offense is averaging under 10 points per game.


#8355

#8356

Here’s an interesting stat.

Based on ESPN’s Football Power Index, the odds of representing the East in the Big Ten Championship are:

  1. Penn State 48.9%
  2. Michigan 41.2%
  3. Ohio State 9.6%

Note: rounding error causes them to not add up to 100%


#8357

I love this team but if I were a betting person, I’d like the potential return on an OSU bet.


#8358

All I have to say is if OSU beats Michigan, PSU beats MSU, then PSU beats Wiscy, PSU better be in the final four, even over a one loss Washington team.


#8359

I’ve gone on record on several sites saying that they definitely will be (as if my opinion means anything :slight_smile: )


#8360

I think Washington loses again anyway.