Discussion Forum

OT-Coronavirus/COVID 19

I just looked at that graphic again. How “sending kids to school” isn’t at the top of the list I don’t understand.

BuzzFeed News? LOL! :grin:

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You’re out of touch, as per usual, old man.

Yeah right, try to do better.

@Craftsy21 aren’t you the same guy who laughed at someone posting a Breitbart news story a couple weeks ago?

Buzzfeed does not equal Breitbart

Hardly anyone is talking about the stark change in mortality rate with the virus. To see cases spiking up with deaths continuing to decline is very positive news. Whether those who are most vulnerable are effectively protecting themselves or the virus is mutating to a less lethal level (I’ve read many views), maybe we can get to a point where it burns itself out. Hospitalizations, like psu76 mentions, are not spiking like the cases are. In Wisconsin, with cases going up, hospitalizations are declining as well.

I realize that we need to make sure that there is not a lag between case rates and the severe effects of the virus, but I’m cautiously optimistic that as time has gone by, case and mortality trends have continued move in different directions.

There he goes again with the name calling…

Here’s a nice summary of the guesses about what’s up:


  1. More testing has identified many more people with lesser or no symptoms, driving down the proportion of COVID-19 positive deaths.
  2. More and better treatments of those who are sick
  3. Younger cohort (anecdote: my parents’ retirement community has been on modified virtual house arrest with limited visitation since March - that’s now more than three months)
  4. Modified behaviors (like mask wearing) maybe reducing the dose of Coronavirus received, which may reduce severity of disease
  5. Death tends to trail infection by two to four weeks

This is also a good read;

The virus burns itself out when its R0 falls, and stays, below 1, i.e. every individual, on average, infects less than one other individual. We were on our way to that a couple of months ago, we no longer are. Two months ago, the R0 was below 1 in 37 states. Currently, it’s only below in 11. There’s no chance the virus burns itself out unless that trend is reversed.

The site Rt.Live tracks Rt, a statistical surrogate for R0.

That’s a good site to add to the mix, thanks!

Perhaps he meant that the lethality of the disease decreases to a common-cold like effect.

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Yes, I think you, or someone else, shared this link last week and I have been monitoring it. I agree that it’s now a free-for-all in states that had prior control while the Northeast was under siege a couple months ago. Along with what TJB stated just above, hoping we can at least keep the impact down while so many are contracting the virus.

Part of me wants to believe that with all of the increases going on in other states, the virus just doesn’t want to flare up in New York or New Jersey or Connecticut because it’s basically tapped out there.

Look at Sweden again, even though they’ve kept everything open throughout, it looks like the virus is waning there as well. I know the death toll is higher in Sweden but they made mistakes with their nursing homes and treatment of the virus is better now than when they were peaking.

Really either that or a combination of weakening mutations and some amount of herd immunity, even if limited…

And it seems true enough … here’s the latest comprehensive update:

The best thing Texas and other areas had going 8-12 weeks ago is that they were far from NYC and Washington.