PennStateHoops.com Discussion Forum

OT-Coronavirus/COVID 19

One thing that I feel that has contributed greatly to the whole mask issue is that legit health officials have given out conflicting information regarding their effectiveness.

Also, I still think that the Red, Yellow, & Green phases here in PA was a major blunder. We’ve been conditioned for decades that green means go, however the Green level is still restrictive. If there are still restrictions, we should still be in a orange or yellow phase.

That being said, if my department gets approval from teh Provost, I start returning to campus next week.

1 Like

This is a huge failure of something so simple.

2 Likes

I agree. Unfortunately, some people are not going to look at what goes in to each phase and will only look at the labels. It seems minor, but just labelling them as Phase 1, 2, and 3 would have helped, I think.

1 Like

As an old UX guy, I endorse this view.

Everyone made fun of Tom Ridge’s color codes after 9/11, but they would have made more sense in this case (also given that we NEVER went green while that system was in place)

Over 1 million Covid 19 tests reported yesterday in the US. First time that has happened.

Some scientists say it’s still too early to tell how much transmission occurred at the demonstrations in New York. One reason is that many protesters were young adults — a demographic in whom severe cases and hospitalizations are less common. As a result, a rise in cases that started within this demographic might remain undetected by public health officials for longer.

“We don’t know the impact. We’ll see that in the next two weeks,” Florian Krammer, a virologist at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, said in an interview last week.

Moreover, city officials have instructed contact tracers not to ask new Covid-19 patients if they attended protests, according to a report in The City, a nonprofit news organization.

Here’s a relevant passage from The City report:

Asking someone if they’d been at a protest could wind up discouraging them from being candid in their answers, he noted.

“I think the logic has to do with the fact that contact tracing requires a strong level of trust between the interviewer and the person they’re talking to,” he said. “It’s really important to have a good rapport and treat people with ease. It’s important to not ask questions that will impede your ability to do the best job you can.”

For example, Kachur, who has been involved in contact tracking during previous pandemics involving the flu and Zika, noted that when investigators are trying to track the spread of HIV, tuberculosis or most diseases, they make a point of not asking about a person’s immigration status.

And while knowledge of how the protests might be sparking a second wave would be helpful, it would be very difficult to track close contacts at events attended by thousands of strangers, he said.

“There’s definitely a concern that state and city officials have that the protests could be a place where transmission occurs, but that risk is lower than household and other community contacts,” Kachur said. “And it would be really challenging to trace those contacts who you’ve been protesting with.”

CMS said that insurers no longer have to cover COVID-19 testing when employers mandate a test before an employee can return to work, or when someone is tested as part of a public health surveillance program.

Haven’t heard me talk about antibody tests in a while. With all the young people getting the disease with mild or no symptoms, and recent estimates of US infection rates 6 times to 26 times the actual number of confirmed cases, there should be more discussion/focus in the media on where we stand with an accurate antibody test. From what I have read, it’s proven science that just needs to be refined to get to that point. Latest from the FDA:

https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/emergency-situations-medical-devices/eua-authorized-serology-test-performance

Very encouraging report but does not reflect the impact of the recent moves to shut down again in certain parts of the country.

Those recent shutdowns may prevent a V-shaped recovery. Still looking like a Nike swoosh to me (short sharp downturn followed by a slow elongated recovery):

1 Like

21 year old PSU student dies from COVID-19.

https://www.centredaily.com/news/coronavirus/article243952827.html

First diagnosed Jun 20th, died ten days later.

Per reporting, an EMS student (my college).

This got me looking into the data a bit, and from these 2 sources, I pieced together this. Not exactly new news. If anything, the mortality rate in the younger set might be even less because of a lower testing rate. SO what’s the real risk of bringing kids back on Campus this fall, and with whom does the risk lie?

Age cases Deaths Mortality Rate
0-9 1,400 4 0.3%
10-19 3,300 8 0.2%
20-29 12,400 10 0.1%
30-39 13,100 20 0.2%
40-49 12,400 106 0.9%
50-59 14,500 328 2.3%
60-69 11,900 896 7.5%
70-79 7,800 1,404 18.0%
80-89 6,800 2,076 30.5%
90-99 4,100 1,632 39.8%
100+ 219 107 48.9%

If 10% of everyone gets it, and you go with the .1% for students, that’s about 5 dead students. With staff, 10% getting it and 1% death rate(though it’s probably higher on average), it’s 17 dead staff. I would imagine they would shut it down long before it got that high. And that is just at University Park.

Yes but you are failing to take into account the human suffering of no football season

2 Likes

PSU employs not quite 30,000 people in Centre County. Ten percent getting COVID equates to 3000 cases. 1% death rate equals 30 dead. That doesn’t take into account the families of those 3000 people who are also likely to fall ill.