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OT: Big Ten football

I just don’t see any established coach taking the Rutgers job. They either need to open a vault and over pay a top coach or hit the lottery on an assistant who is a NJ super recruiter and can bring in in more young hot shot recruiters.

That Spartan defensive line is nuts.

I’m not sure firing Chris Ash early in the season was the best thing for RU’s current players. Feels like the school really let them down.

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I agree. RU got blown out and shut out today at IU 35-0.

yikes.

Five completions for one yard?

I know its twitter but definitely feels like Dantonio’s seat is going to be very hot by the end of the season.

I think RU would be crazy not to give the keys back to Schiano.

Schiano then uses the transfer portal strategy: He’s coached in the NFL, he’s coached at OSU, he sent an absurd number of RU players to the pros. He doesn’t give up on getting kids out of Jersey for the first stop, but he makes hay with the new free agency.

They could roll the dice with an up-and-comer, but with UM, OSU and Franklin/PSU in the same division, and a 9-game B10 schedule, seems like a losing hand to me.

I think Schiano is going to get the job, but I don’t think he’s a slam dunk hire by any means. The problem that Schiano is going to have is all the first rate Jersey guys are leaving the state and that’s expected of them. They go to Penn State, Michigan, Ohio State, Notre Dame, Clemson, Alabama, or Georgia, they don’t stay in-state. It’s a similar problem that Maryland has with Mike Locksley.

Maybe the transfer portal thing can work, the only problem with that though is it’s going to require excellent talent evaluation as the vast majority of these guys don’t get a ton of playing time. I guess that’s a better chance that trying to out-recruit the Big Ten East.

How much talent is there really in NJ? There isn’t enough talent in the state to fill a competitive roster. He’s got enough name to get interest from out of state kids to at least take a look. That’s their only shot.

It’s a good study in what happens when a “bottom feeder” gets some success. The guy after Schiano couldn’t keep the momentum, and back to the bottom they went. Things are different (and I would argue more difficult) now then the first time he pulled RU up from the depths. Good Luck.

Yes, can’t count on recruiting out of high school because of brand issues.

I think Schiano’s rep could move him into near the top tier for transfer recruits, many of whom should be able to figure out how to screen out the BS of the first round of recruiting. Developed pros (at Ohio State and at Rutgers!), coached pros (at Ohio State and in the pros!), can be kind of a close-to-home alternative for northeastern players who find themselves buried on a blue blood depth chart.

NFL roster home states, ranked as of three days before the start of the 2018 season:

Rank State Players
1 Florida 193
2 California 187
3 Texas 160
4 Georgia 97
5 Ohio 80
6 Pennsylvania 66
7 Louisiana 63
8 Alabama 60
9 New Jersey 50
10 South Carolina 48
11 Michigan 46
12 Virginia 43
13 North Carolina 42
14 Illinois 38
15 New York 36
16 Tennessee 34
17 Maryland 28
18 Mississippi 27
(tie) Missouri 27
(tie) Wisconsin 27
21 Arizona 24
22 Minnesota 20
23 Washington 18
24 Indiana 16
(tie) Oklahoma 16
26 Colorado 15
(tie) Kansas 15
28 Connecticut 14
(tie) Nebraska 14
30 Kentucky 13
31 Arkansas 12
(tie) Iowa 12
(tie) Oregon 12
34 Hawaii 10
35 D.C. 9
(tie) Nevada 9
37 Massachusetts 8
38 Delaware 7
39 Idaho 6
(tie) Utah 6
41 Montana 5
42 New Mexico 3
(tie) North Dakota 3
(tie) South Dakota 3
(tie) West Virginia 3
46 New Hampshire 2
(tie) Wyoming 2
48 Rhode Island 1
49 Alaska 0
(tie) Maine 0
(tie) Vermont 0

Schiano got very lucky that he got to play in a Big East without Miami and Virginia Tech when the biggest competition was Louisville and West Virginia. Even still, he never won the conference and basically won 8-9 games for a few years before abandoning the program overnight to go to the NFL. They made 3 straight bowl games with Kyle Flood after he succeeded Schiano, but then had to fire him for talking to a professor about boosting a player’s grades. Flood was essentially matching Schiano’s performance through three seasons. Chris Ash took over and was a complete disaster, which was magnified by a resurgent Penn State in the second toughest division in America.

I guess this is how much you want to buy into this line of thinking. He’s not fresh out of the NFL anymore, he last coached an NFL game in like 2013 and hasn’t been a head coach since. The players he’s going to be recruiting were in middle school when he last was a head coach. Maybe he’s been buying his time for the right opportunity, but he didn’t coach in college for three years after leaving the Bucs. Who knows how integral he was for success at Ohio State, but another year off before another gig is also not going to help him a ton in terms of staying relevant for recruits.

Personally, I think Rutgers needs someone very connected to New Jersey and is fresh in the game. Appointing Schiano is basically waiving a white flag to me, it’s completely unimaginative and not sure how it gets them ahead of a program like Indiana or Maryland.

Hope you’re right!

I guess I should ask then, how well do you think a Greg Schiano coached Rutgers program does in the Big Ten East? Keep in mind their protected cross-over game from 2022-25 is Iowa, so every year on their schedule they will have Iowa, Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan, and Michigan State.

I struggle to see them doing anything better than maybe reaching 7-5/6-6 for a season or two with Schiano, maybe that’s their ceiling. They are so far behind it’s going to take a minimum of like 2 or 3 seasons just to get them competitive in the Big Ten again. Do you think Schiano can handle that kind of rebuild? You have much more faith than I.

I’m following the preseason basketball predictions because I thought there would be a lot of variability in where people thought Penn State would land (and there is - more than any other team so far). But in searching around for stuff, came across this:

Lot of season left, but here is @djones on the 2019 Big 10.

  1. Ohio State
  2. Michigan
  3. Nebraska
  4. Iowa
  5. Michigan State
  6. Wisconsin
  7. Northwestern
  8. Penn State
  9. Purdue
  10. Minnesota
  11. Indiana
  12. Rutgers
  13. Maryland
  14. Illinois

With divisions, not sure how it can play out even when all the results are in, but interesting I think.

Nice list, Tim. So immediately I thought how different that would be vs the size of the state, you know to get a fair comparison. SO what would be a better comparison than ranking the state based on the electoral college. So here you go:

Electoral Rank NFL Rank Diference
California 1 2 -1
Texas 2 3 -1
Florida 3 1 2
New York 4 15 -11
Illinois 5 14 -9
Pennsylvania 6 6 0
Ohio 7 5 2
Georgia 8 4 4
Michigan 9 11 -2
North Carolina 10 13 -3
New Jersey 11 9 2
Virginia 12 12 0
Washington 13 23 -10
Arizona 14 21 -7
Indiana 15 24 -9
Massachusetts 16 37 -21
Tennessee 17 16 1
Maryland 18 17 1
Minnesota 19 22 -3
Missouri 20 18 2
Wisconsin 21 18 3
Alabama 22 8 14
Colorado 23 26 -3
South Carolina 24 10 14
Kentucky 25 30 -5
Louisiana 26 7 19
Connecticut 27 28 -1
Oklahoma 28 24 4
Oregon 29 31 -2
Arkansas 30 31 -1

There are a few states that really jump out:
New York and Illinois are WAY below their size in turning out NFL players. Conversely, Alabama, South Carolina, and Louisiana really crank 'em out (GA too, to a lesser extent)
New Jersey - actually slightly BETTER

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By Young Folks

  Location ** Children 0-18 ** ** Adults 19-25 ** NFL Players rank Difference
1 California 9,363,800.00 3,697,900.00 2 -1
2 Texas 7,659,600.00 2,612,700.00 2 0
3 New York 4,260,400.00 1,761,000.00 15 -12
4 Florida 4,362,200.00 1,698,300.00 1 3
5 Illinois 3,007,500.00 1,114,500.00 14 -9
6 Pennsylvania 2,746,700.00 1,028,600.00 6 0
7 Ohio 2,677,900.00 987,700.00 5 2
8 Georgia 2,612,200.00 908,000.00 4 4
9 Michigan 2,231,400.00 896,700.00 11 -2
10 North Carolina 2,394,200.00 847,500.00 13 -3
11 New Jersey 2,059,500.00 734,100.00 9 2
12 Virginia 1,925,700.00 717,900.00 12 0
13 Arizona 1,686,200.00 637,200.00 21 -8
14 Washington 1,701,700.00 628,700.00 23 -9
15 Indiana 1,613,200.00 593,900.00 24 -9
16 Massachusetts 1,429,000.00 568,000.00 37 -21
17 Tennessee 1,561,400.00 560,900.00 16 1
18 Missouri 1,424,200.00 510,800.00 18 0
19 Maryland 1,387,600.00 500,100.00 17 2
20 Wisconsin 1,319,600.00 495,600.00 18 2
21 Colorado 1,299,900.00 492,600.00 26 -5
22 Minnesota 1,326,200.00 463,800.00 22 0
23 Alabama 1,138,300.00 430,500.00 8 15
24 Louisiana 1,156,100.00 424,700.00 7 17
25 South Carolina 1,134,400.00 418,700.00 10 15
26 Kentucky 1,042,300.00 377,400.00 30 -4
27 Oregon 903,000.00 343,700.00 32 -5
28 Oklahoma 995,000.00 342,600.00 24 4
29 Utah 960,500.00 325,400.00 40 -11
30 Connecticut 771,100.00 297,600.00 28 2
31 Iowa 754,600.00 273,500.00 32 -1
32 Mississippi 746,700.00 273,400.00 18 14
33 Arkansas 730,600.00 265,200.00 31 2
34 Kansas 733,800.00 263,400.00 26 8
35 Nevada 703,900.00 257,000.00 35 0
36 New Mexico 508,700.00 191,500.00 42 -6
37 Nebraska 482,900.00 167,300.00 28 9
38 Idaho 459,700.00 150,200.00 39 -1
39 West Virginia 385,000.00 148,600.00 42 -3
40 New Hampshire 264,100.00 104,700.00 46 -6
41 Hawaii 312,600.00 100,400.00 34 7
42 Montana 230,300.00 95,000.00 41 1
43 Rhode Island 214,900.00 94,600.00 48 -5
44 Maine 261,400.00 92,500.00 49 -5
45 Delaware 208,200.00 78,500.00 38 7
46 North Dakota 177,000.00 75,100.00 42 4
47 South Dakota 214,000.00 72,000.00 42 5
48 District of Columbia 125,500.00 64,200.00 35 13
49 Alaska 192,300.00 63,500.00 49 0
50 Vermont 119,800.00 52,500.00 49 1
51 Wyoming 142,400.00 48,500.00 46 5