I think any range from 7-4 to 9-2 is pretty realistic (remember we are missing a Cancun game here). 11-0 or 10-1 would be excellent, but a very rough calculation would have me estimating that this is a 5%ish chance. This would be a level of cleaning up business that Penn State hasn’t really done since I have started following the program. 6-5 or worse seems to be a < 5% chance as well to me. We just have so many winnable games that 5 losses basically means we have lost to Depaul, Va Tech, NC State, loss in Cancun and Bama. That is every “difficult” game in the OOC, and I simply think we are too good to lose all of them.
We are getting some nice advantages in this schedule here. Jacksonville State looks pretty good based on preseason reports (maybe a tournament team in the OVC? beating Belmont won’t be easy for them), Bama might be a little worse than we think (though going down there will still be tough), and Va Tech’s Chris Clarke may be permanently off the team, which makes them more beatable. The OOC is setting up nicely to be good for our metrics come March, and is giving us a good chance to possibly get into the dance.
I think predicting our Big Ten record could be quite an interesting exercise as well probably at the start of Big Ten play, and our opening Big Ten slate is B R U T A L. Our opening 6 are:
That has to be among the toughest opening 6 games in the conference. I guess my roundabout point is that if we can get to mid-January with a decent record, say 11-6 (2-4 B1G) we are going to be in a favorable position for a tournament bid imo. Anything less than that and it’s going to be an uphill climb in the 2nd half of the season.