OOC W-L predictions?


#1

KenPom has Penn State 7-3 in the OOC (but the only game he doesn’t have PSU favored is @Alabama):

Date Opponent Result Location
Fri Nov 9 226 North Florida W, 86-68 96% Home
Mon Nov 12 162 Jacksonville St. W, 76-61 91% Home
Thu Nov 15 75 DePaul W, 71-70 55% Away
Tue Nov 20 123 Wright St. W, 75-66 79% Neutral
Wed Nov 21   Bradley OR SMU     Neutral
Tue Nov 27 30 Virginia Tech W, 75-72 62% Home
Sat Dec 8 202 Colgate W, 78-61 94% Home
Sat Dec 15 32 North Carolina St. W, 77-76 51% Neutral
Wed Dec 19 173 Duquesne W, 75-66 77% Away
Fri Dec 21 54 Alabama L, 70-69 48% Away
Sat Dec 29 244 UMBC W, 79-60 96% Home

I’m not big on predictions, but I like Penn State at 7-2.

Gotta not get caught in the games PSU is heavily favored. DePaul may be a bit better than I expected. Guessing 2-2 in the P6 games.


#2

Torvik, a little more skeptical on the spreads (underdogs against NC State and Alabama), but the same 7-3 OOC prediction:

Date &bnsp; Rank (Quad) Spread Confidence
Fri 11-09 H 191 (IV) North Florida -17.8, 93-75 92%
Mon 11-12 H 160 (III) Jacksonville St. -13.3, 79-65 89%
Thu 11-15 A 92 (III) DePaul -0.2, 75-74 51%
Tue 11-20 N 125 (III) Wright St. -6.7, 74-68 75%
Wed 11-21 N   Bradley OR SMU    
Tue 11-27 H 22 (I) Virginia Tech -0.6, 78-77 52%
Sat 12-08 H 224 (IV) Colgate -17.1, 81-64 94%
Sat 12-15 N 35 (II) North Carolina St. +1.7, 82-80 44%
Wed 12-19 A 190 (III) Duquesne -7.1, 76-69 76%
Fri 12-21 A 24 (I) Alabama +7, 78-71 25%
Sat 12-29 H 252 (IV) UMBC -18, 80-62 95%

#3

I think 7-3 is a good call, though if Watkins is out to the new year could see 6-4 (hopefully that woul be the floor barring unforeseen events). Also a little surprised to see DePaul viewed that favorably, but now I am curious to dig into that a little.


#4

If we have a full team (Watkins included), we will be favored in every game, including at Bama.

We should run the table, but ■■■■ happens. It’s probably 75% likely we lose at least 1 of Depaul, VaTech, NC State, Alabama

Just eyeballing the numbers, but if we get Mike back…

25% Undefeated
45% 1 Loss
25% 2 Loss
5% 3 Losses or More.

If Watkins is out…

15% Undefeated
40% 1 Loss
30% 2 Loss
25% 3 Losses or more


#5

I think any range from 7-4 to 9-2 is pretty realistic (remember we are missing a Cancun game here). 11-0 or 10-1 would be excellent, but a very rough calculation would have me estimating that this is a 5%ish chance. This would be a level of cleaning up business that Penn State hasn’t really done since I have started following the program. 6-5 or worse seems to be a < 5% chance as well to me. We just have so many winnable games that 5 losses basically means we have lost to Depaul, Va Tech, NC State, loss in Cancun and Bama. That is every “difficult” game in the OOC, and I simply think we are too good to lose all of them.

We are getting some nice advantages in this schedule here. Jacksonville State looks pretty good based on preseason reports (maybe a tournament team in the OVC? beating Belmont won’t be easy for them), Bama might be a little worse than we think (though going down there will still be tough), and Va Tech’s Chris Clarke may be permanently off the team, which makes them more beatable. The OOC is setting up nicely to be good for our metrics come March, and is giving us a good chance to possibly get into the dance.

I think predicting our Big Ten record could be quite an interesting exercise as well probably at the start of Big Ten play, and our opening Big Ten slate is B R U T A L. Our opening 6 are:

@ Maryland
Indiana
@ Michigan
Wisconsin
@ Nebraska
Michigan State

That has to be among the toughest opening 6 games in the conference. I guess my roundabout point is that if we can get to mid-January with a decent record, say 11-6 (2-4 B1G) we are going to be in a favorable position for a tournament bid imo. Anything less than that and it’s going to be an uphill climb in the 2nd half of the season.


#6

6 games against non p5 we have to win (and should, although Jacksonville St and Wright State obviously aren’t pushovers).

If we could split the 4 games against Depaul (A), Va Tech (H), NC State (N), and Alabama (A), I think that’s a reasonable expectation that is both within reach and respectable for where we are as a program right now.

So I’m hoping for 8-2. But the lifelong PSU bball fan in me says I should probably expect something more like 7-3 or 6-4.


#7

:+1:

Bradley or SMU, Nov. 21.


#8

We are running the table - mark it down.

That being said, to paraphrase someone we know, “NORTH FLORIDA NORTH FLORIDA NORTH FLORIDA NORTH FLORIDA NORTH FLORIDA NORTH FLORIDA NORTH FLORIDA NORTH FLORIDA”

Let’s start by going 1-0.


#9

I’m with JYD, very bullish on the season but worried about North Florida. What a damper that would put on the momentum that seems to be building.


#10

Ala UAlbany in 2016-17. Really took some wind out of the sails.


#11

I am not as concerned about Mike missing the OCC because we played both the B1G and NIT tournaments without him. This team learned to win without his interior scoring and defense. Different teams, yes but should have tons of confidence and senior leadership.


#12

Yes, but we had back-up bigs (Pierce and Moore). This year, we do not.


#13

Not sure this is not a plus, Julian had a few solid games, was a team leader for sure, but also struggled. Pierce, who knows what you get there. Rather see minutes go to DZ and Buttrick, at least they hustle and have some offensive ability. Couldn’t tell if the unpredictable minutes and rotation hurt Pierce last year or if he was not too motivated. But usually he seemed to be going through the motions. Hope he shows up in his final semester.


#14

I would say that if Mike comes back right after Cancun, we’ll drop 1 game in the OOC. If Mike is out the entire OOC, we lose2-3.

My optimism has me wanting to say “undefeated with Mike,” but I don’t want to look like THAT much of a homer. :wink:

However, I will say that I fully expect us to dance this season (again though, baring injury or suspension to our extremely thin front-court depth)


#15

I’ll enjoy the Ws as they occur.