PennStateHoops.com Discussion Forum

OOC schedule revisited


#1

Not that I necessarily want to rehash the discussion that went on when the schedule was originally released, but I thought it worth noting that the schedule really played out like many of us hoped when it was announced (unfortunately, the team hasn’t taken advantage of the leverage that this schedule provided them). Props to former DOBO Jon Perry for putting it together.

PSU currently has the #30th ranked schedule strength in the country (LINK Subscription required) and that will almost assuredly improve as we move through conference play.

The secret to putting together a good schedule for RPI purposes is finding those teams that will wind up doing well in their conference races. Ken Pomeroy has just run a simulation of all the conference races and has projected the champions of each of the conferences (Parts one and two of Pomeroy’s simulations). Here’s how Pomeroy projects PSU’s opponents will do in their conference races (not all teams will have a listing because Pomeroy only ranks teams that have projected to win the conference at least once in his 10,000 simulation runs).

Lehigh - 3rd in the Patriot
Saint Joseph’s - not ranked
Fairfield - 2nd in the MAAC
Central Connecticut - 5th in the NEC
Mississippi - 4th in the SEC
Furman - 3rd in the SoCon
Maryland - 4th in the ACC
Duquesne - 3rd in the A10
Mt St. Mary’s - 10th in the NEC
Virginia Tech - not ranked
Maine - 2nd in America East

That’s a bunch of teams near the top of their conferences. The only game on the schedule that probably can’t be justified would be Mt St Mary’s. Va Tech isn’t ranked but scheduling any Big Six school is OK. St Joe’s also isn’t ranked but there are plenty of reasons for having any Big Five Philly school on a home and home rotation.

We can revisit this at the end of the season when the conferences have sorted themselves out but, at least from Pomeroy’s projections, this looks to be playing out as an almost perfect schedule.


#2

[quote=“UncleLar, post:1, topic:1724”]Not that I necessarily want to rehash the discussion that went on when the schedule was originally released, but I thought it worth noting that the schedule really played out like many of us hoped when it was announced (unfortunately, the team hasn’t taken advantage of the leverage that this schedule provided them). Props to former DOBO Jon Perry for putting it together.

PSU currently has the #30th ranked schedule strength in the country (LINK Subscription required) and that will almost assuredly improve as we move through conference play.

The secret to putting together a good schedule for RPI purposes is finding those teams that will wind up doing well in their conference races. Ken Pomeroy has just run a simulation of all the conference races and has projected the champions of each of the conferences (Parts one and two of Pomeroy’s simulations). Here’s how Pomeroy projects PSU’s opponents will do in their conference races (not all teams will have a listing because Pomeroy only ranks teams that have projected to win the conference at least once in his 10,000 simulation runs).

Lehigh - 3rd in the Patriot
Saint Joseph’s - not ranked
Fairfield - 2nd in the MAAC
Central Connecticut - 5th in the NEC
Mississippi - 4th in the SEC
Furman - 3rd in the SoCon
Maryland - 4th in the ACC
Duquesne - 3rd in the A10
Mt St. Mary’s - 10th in the NEC
Virginia Tech - not ranked
Maine - 2nd in America East

That’s a bunch of teams near the top of their conferences. The only game on the schedule that probably can’t be justified would be Mt St Mary’s. Va Tech isn’t ranked but scheduling any Big Six school is OK. St Joe’s also isn’t ranked but there are plenty of reasons for having any Big Five Philly school on a home and home rotation.

We can revisit this at the end of the season when the conferences have sorted themselves out but, at least from Pomeroy’s projections, this looks to be playing out as an almost perfect schedule.[/quote]

Though we could have done without Maine…or any state that starts with an “M” for that matter. Thank heavens Missouri, Massachusetts and Montana are not on the schedule.


#3

Want further proof that a smart non-conference schedule is extremely important? We’re sitting at 63rd in the RPI today. We were at 70th in the RPI on Selection Sunday, 2009. After 2 conference games that season, we were 101st in the RPI with only 3 losses (Temple, Rhode Island, and Wisconsin).


#4

At least Ed has gotten one thing fixed since starting here. Too bad it’s several years late and probably won’t matter this season.


#5

I have a feeling our non-conference schedule will be just as weak next season as it was 2 seasons ago when we just missed out on the tournament. We’re going to need easy wins.


#6

I was thinking the same thing. With four seniors gone and Buie a huge question mark. Who the heck would our starting five even be?!?


#7

Lar, quick side question: Whats the difference between Palm’s RPI and CBS’? Is it not the same formula?

Penn State’s OOC SOS rank is 46. Why is that? Only two teams are sub 200 at this moment: Maine (201) and Mount St. Mary’s (271). All the other teams are RPI/SOS friendly (not necessarily resume friendly) as they are in the mid 100s range.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/teams/rpi/PSU


#8

Noobd - My first instinct would be to say that Palm’s is correct and CBS probably has some errors. When there is a difference between Palm and the NCAA itself, 9 times out of 10 (if not more often), it’s Jerry that is correct. The “formula” for the RPI is universal, however things like data entry errors or home/road/neutral create almost all of the errors (especially the difference between home and neutral, since it can get way more complicated than you’d imagine).


#9

Yeah, I assumed there is some type of higher quality because you have to subscribe to CollegeRPI. I also know, through Twitter, that my RPI/SOS numbers have been slightly different than Andy Glockner’s and other “higher ups” in the NCAAB world.

Edit: When I say “my” I mean CBS – the numbers I use for resumes and such.


#10

And just to reiterate how important the schedule is, we’re currently sitting at 63rd in the RPI. The 64th ranked team is Cincinnati. Yes, that’s 14-0 Cincinnati that we’re sitting in front of. The issue is that 11 of their 14 wins are at home and 7 of the 14 are over teams ranked 273rd or higher in the RPI, while that 273rd ranked team (Mount St Mary’s) is our worst opponent. They better stay far, far away from the bubble come selection Sunday if they want to dance.


#11

[quote=“noobd, post:7, topic:1724”]Lar, quick side question: Whats the difference between Palm’s RPI and CBS’? Is it not the same formula?

Penn State’s OOC SOS rank is 46. Why is that? Only two teams are sub 200 at this moment: Maine (201) and Mount St. Mary’s (271). All the other teams are RPI/SOS friendly (not necessarily resume friendly) as they are in the mid 100s range.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/teams/rpi/PSU[/quote]

Not sure what you are asking regarding the OOC SOS. 46 is a good ranking. What makes you think there is something wrong with it?

Palm and CBS have the same RPI rating of .5672, they just differ on the ranking number (63 vs 66) so the error lies in the way one or the other has calculated other teams’ RPIs. As frats suggested, it probably has something to do with the two differing on a few home vs neutral court games.

A quick comparison of teams near PSU shows minor differences between Virginia Tech, Davidson, Cincinnati, and UAB, and a major difference with UCLA.

Taking a quick look at UCLA shows that both Palm and CBS have virtually identical SOS numbers for them so the difference must be in how they are counting a home vs neutral court game for UCLA.

Digging a step deeper shows that Palm has UCLA with a 0-1 road record and a 1-2 neutral court record. CBS is carrying UCLA with an 0-3 road record and a 1-0 neutral court record, so Palm is recording 2 UCLA losses as neutral court games that CBS considers on the road.

One more step shows UCLA with losses to VCU and Villanova in the NIT TipOff. Those games were at Madison Square Garden which is clearly a neutral site game for VCU, Villanova, and UCLA. Thus, as predicted, Palm’s numbers are right and CBS’s are wrong.

With a bit more detective work, I could probably figure out where the other errors are but it’s not worth the exercise. Palm will almost assuredly turn out to be right and CBS wrong.


#12
[quote="bballguy, post:5, topic:1724"]I have a feeling our non-conference schedule will be just as weak next season as it was 2 seasons ago when we just missed out on the tournament. We're going to need easy wins.[/quote]

I was thinking the same thing. With four seniors gone and Buie a huge question mark. Who the heck would our starting five even be?!?

Agreed. I don’t think the tournament is a realistic goal next year, so what is the next scheduling priority?


#13

I wasn’t asking anything, I was just saying it in a certain tone. I asked the question, then gave the answer.

Q: Why is the OOC SOS so good?
A: The abundance of teams in the 100 range, and only two “cupcakes” by definition of RPI.

Thanks for the CollegeRPI vs CBS clear up. The difference is minimal, so I don’t really care to pay for his service. I can understand why big time writers would, though.


#14
[quote="bballguy, post:5, topic:1724"]I have a feeling our non-conference schedule will be just as weak next season as it was 2 seasons ago when we just missed out on the tournament. We're going to need easy wins.[/quote]

I was thinking the same thing. With four seniors gone and Buie a huge question mark. Who the heck would our starting five even be?!?

Agreed. I don’t think the tournament is a realistic goal next year, so what is the next scheduling priority?

We should always schedule the same – similar to this year. If not, we could miss the tournament in the years that we play above expectations. For example, what if next year Sasa somehow becomes a 20 point a game guy and Bowman lights it up from 3 and we end up .500 in conference? That would stink to not make the tournament because we scheduled down to expectations. In theory, we should win at least 7 or 8 of the games we scheduled this year no matter what our roster looks like.


#15
[quote="UncleLar, post:11, topic:1724"]Not sure what you are asking regarding the OOC SOS. 46 is a good ranking. What makes you think there is something wrong with it?[/quote]

I wasn’t asking anything, I was just saying it in a certain tone. I asked the question, then gave the answer.

Q: Why is the OOC SOS so good?
A: The abundance of teams in the 100 range, and only two “cupcakes” by definition of RPI.

Thanks for the CollegeRPI vs CBS clear up. The difference is minimal, so I don’t really care to pay for his service. I can understand why big time writers would, though.

I will say that a subscription to Jerry’s website is worth every penny. If you’re a college hoops fan, it’s almost a “must have” (at least in my opinion). In addition to all of the current information, you get his semiweekly bracket projections, a weekly column, analysis of bubble teams, etc. But even better in my mind is all of the historical content, where you can go year by year for teams, get the exact RPI for any date in time over the last ~10 years, historical conference standings, etc. When it comes to digging for information, it’s the first place I go. At only around $20 bucks a year, it’s a steal.


#16

frats, thanks for the review. I have only glanced at his site, and listened to a bubble podcast or two last season. I’ll definitely look into it a lot more.


#17
[quote="UncleLar, post:11, topic:1724"]Not sure what you are asking regarding the OOC SOS. 46 is a good ranking. What makes you think there is something wrong with it?[/quote]

I wasn’t asking anything, I was just saying it in a certain tone. I asked the question, then gave the answer.

Q: Why is the OOC SOS so good?
A: The abundance of teams in the 100 range, and only two “cupcakes” by definition of RPI.

Thanks for the CollegeRPI vs CBS clear up. The difference is minimal, so I don’t really care to pay for his service. I can understand why big time writers would, though.

Talking to yourself? I do that all the time. :wink:


#18

My new found amateur journalist alter ego kicking in. ::slight_smile:


#19
[quote="bballguy, post:5, topic:1724"]I have a feeling our non-conference schedule will be just as weak next season as it was 2 seasons ago when we just missed out on the tournament. We're going to need easy wins.[/quote]

I was thinking the same thing. With four seniors gone and Buie a huge question mark. Who the heck would our starting five even be?!?

Agreed. I don’t think the tournament is a realistic goal next year, so what is the next scheduling priority?

We should always schedule the same – similar to this year. If not, we could miss the tournament in the years that we play above expectations. For example, what if next year Sasa somehow becomes a 20 point a game guy and Bowman lights it up from 3 and we end up .500 in conference? That would stink to not make the tournament because we scheduled down to expectations. In theory, we should win at least 7 or 8 of the games we scheduled this year no matter what our roster looks like.

I agree 100%.


#20
[quote="UncleLar, post:11, topic:1724"]Not sure what you are asking regarding the OOC SOS. 46 is a good ranking. What makes you think there is something wrong with it?[/quote]

I wasn’t asking anything, I was just saying it in a certain tone. I asked the question, then gave the answer.

Q: Why is the OOC SOS so good?
A: The abundance of teams in the 100 range, and only two “cupcakes” by definition of RPI.

Thanks for the CollegeRPI vs CBS clear up. The difference is minimal, so I don’t really care to pay for his service. I can understand why big time writers would, though.

I will say that a subscription to Jerry’s website is worth every penny. If you’re a college hoops fan, it’s almost a “must have” (at least in my opinion). In addition to all of the current information, you get his semiweekly bracket projections, a weekly column, analysis of bubble teams, etc. But even better in my mind is all of the historical content, where you can go year by year for teams, get the exact RPI for any date in time over the last ~10 years, historical conference standings, etc. When it comes to digging for information, it’s the first place I go. At only around $20 bucks a year, it’s a steal.

I second that. Can’t live without Palm and Pomeroy.