PennStateHoops.com Discussion Forum

NCAA Tournament


#1

Hola!

That’s hello in Spanish. The NCAA Tournament starts on Tuesday, shocker (not the Wichita State kind). I figured why not have one big, huge, ginormous discussion thread on it. I was even thinking of creating a Bracket pool, free of charge of course, so someone on here can have bragging rights once and for all. If you are in, just let me know on here, and if there is enough demand, I’ll create one! Simple. As. That.

Happy Bracketing!


#2

There has been a pennstatehoops.com bracket the past few years


#3

Just thought I’d brag about what I did. This is the second year that I did my own pics before the committee announces who’s in the NCAA Tournament. I got 67 of the 68 picks right this year. The only pick I got wrong was Drexel in and UConn out. My criteria is probably a lot simpler than the committees, I more just go with who I personally think is in and who isn’t. Also I didn’t do any seeding.

I’m all for doing a bracket on here with you guys if enough people are interested. I just started doing them last year so who knows how well I’ll do. I’ve been excited to watch all these conference tournament games and now I’m excited for the NCAA Tournament. I really hope our boys get in soon and join the fun again.


#4

http://projects.wsj.com/blindfold-brackets-2012/

Our buddies at the WSJ have done this again for us. Do you want to know what’s bad? I love this Louisville team, but 2 times I have done the blind bracket, I have had them lose in the 1st round to Davidson twice. What am I going to do? Hahaha.


#5

[quote=“rwd5035, post:4, topic:3172”]http://projects.wsj.com/blindfold-brackets-2012/

Our buddies at the WSJ have done this again for us. Do you want to know what’s bad? I love this Louisville team, but 2 times I have done the blind bracket, I have had them lose in the 1st round to Davidson twice. What am I going to do? Hahaha.[/quote]

I have a Kentucky, Purdue, MSU, FSU final four, with MSU beating Purdue


#6

I had Duke beating Kansas in my last one.

I’ve had Creighton beat Carolina once as well. I had two 14 seeds win, SDSU, and Belmont. I had Wichita State in the Elite 8. Vandy in the Final 4, Gonzaga beating Ohio State, and New Mexico in the Elite 8.

Basically, it was like last season with more chaos.


#7

[quote=“rwd5035, post:4, topic:3172”]http://projects.wsj.com/blindfold-brackets-2012/

Our buddies at the WSJ have done this again for us. Do you want to know what’s bad? I love this Louisville team, but 2 times I have done the blind bracket, I have had them lose in the 1st round to Davidson twice. What am I going to do? Hahaha.[/quote]

Nice little exercise…

I have Kansas winning it all, with Kentucky, Syracuse and MSU as the other FF participants. Quite conservative for me.


#8

[quote=“rwd5035, post:1, topic:3172”]Hola!

That’s hello in Spanish. The NCAA Tournament starts on Tuesday, shocker (not the Wichita State kind). I figured why not have one big, huge, ginormous discussion thread on it. I was even thinking of creating a Bracket pool, free of charge of course, so someone on here can have bragging rights once and for all. If you are in, just let me know on here, and if there is enough demand, I’ll create one! Simple. As. That.

Happy Bracketing![/quote]

In.


#9

[quote=“rwd5035, post:4, topic:3172”]http://projects.wsj.com/blindfold-brackets-2012/

Our buddies at the WSJ have done this again for us. Do you want to know what’s bad? I love this Louisville team, but 2 times I have done the blind bracket, I have had them lose in the 1st round to Davidson twice. What am I going to do? Hahaha.[/quote]

This is always cool. Looks like I have Michigan State, Wichita State, Syracuse, & Kansas as my Final Four with Kansas beating Wichita St in the title game…


#10
[quote="rwd5035, post:4, topic:3172"][url=http://projects.wsj.com/blindfold-brackets-2012/]http://projects.wsj.com/blindfold-brackets-2012/[/url]

Our buddies at the WSJ have done this again for us. Do you want to know what’s bad? I love this Louisville team, but 2 times I have done the blind bracket, I have had them lose in the 1st round to Davidson twice. What am I going to do? Hahaha.[/quote]

This is always cool. Looks like I have Michigan State, Wichita State, Syracuse, & Kansas as my Final Four with Kansas beating Wichita St in the title game…

Agreed, I like filling this out, although I’m pretty sure this bracket will perform much worse than the one I knew who the teams were.

My final four is Davidson, Kentucky, Syracuse, and Kansas, with Kentucky beating Kansas for the title.

If Davidson is this year’s VCU, I’m giving all the credit to the WSJ. :slight_smile:


#11

I thought it might be fun to create a group to track our blind WSJ-style picks. So I setup an ESPN group for anyone who’s interested:

http://games.espn.go.com/tournament-challenge-bracket/en/group?groupID=113635

Group: PSH Blind Picks
Password: WSJblind


#12
[url=http://projects.wsj.com/blindfold-brackets-2012/]http://projects.wsj.com/blindfold-brackets-2012/[/url]

Our buddies at the WSJ have done this again for us. Do you want to know what’s bad? I love this Louisville team, but 2 times I have done the blind bracket, I have had them lose in the 1st round to Davidson twice. What am I going to do? Hahaha.

This is always cool. Looks like I have Michigan State, Wichita State, Syracuse, & Kansas as my Final Four with Kansas beating Wichita St in the title game…

Same Final Four but Kansas over MSU for the title.


#13
[quote="rwd5035, post:4, topic:3172"][url=http://projects.wsj.com/blindfold-brackets-2012/]http://projects.wsj.com/blindfold-brackets-2012/[/url]

Our buddies at the WSJ have done this again for us. Do you want to know what’s bad? I love this Louisville team, but 2 times I have done the blind bracket, I have had them lose in the 1st round to Davidson twice. What am I going to do? Hahaha.[/quote]

This is always cool. Looks like I have Michigan State, Wichita State, Syracuse, & Kansas as my Final Four with Kansas beating Wichita St in the title game…

Same Final Four but Kansas over MSU for the title.

I ended up with three #1 seeds (Syracuse, MSU, Kentucky) plus Kansas in the Final Four, with Kansas beating Kentucky for the championship.


#14

If you are interested in figuring out various strategies for filling our your bracket, I would highly recommend Peter Tiernan’s BracketScience.com. At his site, you can choose the strategy that you like and Tiernan churns out the bracket for you. He’s got about a dozen models that he uses.

As an example, here’s a couple of his approaches.

One that I like is the Ken Pomeroy Pythagarean model (no surprise there huh - it won me some nice money in a pool a few years ago). Here’s Tiernan’s descriptor.

Pomeroy Pythag model - Ken Pomeroy’s possession-based statistics have proven to be solid indicators of tourney overachievement. Pythag is a combined calculation of offensive and defensive efficiency. It has shown itself to be as strong as scoring margin in identifying tourney overachievers. With this in mind, I figured we do one bracket where we simply advance the team with the higher Pythag all the way to the championship. In 2008, this strategy was in the 99th percentile in the ESPN Tourney Challenge. Last year was nearly as good.

Here’s another he call’s Factors PASE.

Factors PASE model - Advance one and two seeds two rounds and three and four seeds one round. Then award each team the PASE value for any of the top ten attributes in KPI article. For the remaining matchups, advance the team with the higher cumulative PASE attribute value. Ties go to lower seeds in upset games. To resolve ties in toss-up games, give the nod to the team that possesses the most “top-three” attributes. If teams are still tied, opt for the higher seed.

This isn’t as immediately obvious as the Pomeroy model, but it gets to the heart of Kiernan’s approach. He’s got a list of about 15 “factors” that help distinguish successful tournament teams from the pretenders. They are things like:

Did they go dancing last year? No team goes from not being in the tournament to the champ the very next year.
How many tourney trips has the coach made? Coaches don’t usually win it their first trip either.
What percentage of points do they get from guards? Greater than 65% is not good.
… and so on.

PASE is what he calls Performance Against Seed Expectation. Tiernan tracks teams, coaches, and conferences to see how they historically perform in the tournament. Have they won more games than they would be expected to according to how they have been seeded in the past.

His models use PASE, key indicators, and Pomeroy numbers differently to come up with different projections.

It’s a pay site but there’s also lots of worthwhile free reading for geeks like me.

BracketScience.com


#15
This is always cool. Looks like I have Michigan State, Wichita State, Syracuse, & Kansas as my Final Four with Kansas beating Wichita St in the title game...

Same Final Four but Kansas over MSU for the title.

I got the same final four as well, but Kansas over Wichita. I didn’t realize they were such a sleeper team :wink:

Would have been helpful to include some kind of gauge on the coaching/staff and how successful they have been in tournament play.


#16

I have noticed a lot talking heads at ESPN not picking MSU to get to the final four, and I keep wondering is there something glaring that I missing from MSU that gets them bounced before the final four?


#17

[quote=“rwd5035, post:4, topic:3172”]http://projects.wsj.com/blindfold-brackets-2012/

Our buddies at the WSJ have done this again for us. Do you want to know what’s bad? I love this Louisville team, but 2 times I have done the blind bracket, I have had them lose in the 1st round to Davidson twice. What am I going to do? Hahaha.[/quote]

That’s a fun tool. The only team I recognized right away was Kentucky.

My F4 consisted of Indiana, New Mexico, Vandy, and Kansas, with KU winning over IU. Also had South Dakota St. over Baylor, Murray to the 8, and USF to the 16. Very much opposite of what I picked with the teams visible. I looked mostly at the graphs and less at the RPI and seed range.


#18

A lot of those guys think MSU will lose to either Memphis (3rd round) or Missouri (5th round) because those teams play a different style than the B10 teams that MSU is “use to”. It seems like you could turn that argument around though… I don’t know, I’d rather just watch them play :slight_smile:


#19

Duke, Missouri, Kansas, Syracuse.

Duke, Kansas

Kansas


#20

Lots of Kansas blindfold picks. I’ve done it twice, and they have been in my NC game twice. And to be honest, I’m not that big of a fan of theirs. Robinson is a beast, Taylor is a great guard, but outside of that, they strike me like Duke did with Redick and Williams. Lots of unreliable pieces around them IMO. If one of them has a bad game, then they could be toast.