PennStateHoops.com Discussion Forum

NCAA chances question


#1

Can you guys help me out here? I haven’t been around as much as I have in the past so I have not been able to read up on everything posted here. I’m sure this is discussed elsewhere but what is the general consensus on what we need to do to secure an at large bid? Does 1-1 next weekend give us a shot?


#2

From what I’ve heard and read no, but 2-1 gives PSU a shot.


#3

In Like Flint!!


#4

Beating Wisconsin twice in one year, yikes, that sure won’t be easy.

So it looks like we are being viewed as the last of the 4 9-9 teams?


#5

yes.

losing 2x to Michigan hurts in that regard.

(see, I was nice - didn’t say anything about Maine this time around - ;D )


#6

[quote=“pennst92, post:5, topic:2070”]yes.

losing 2x to Michigan hurts in that regard.

(see, I was nice - didn’t say anything about Maine this time around - ;D )[/quote]

+1 :smiley:


#7

PSU has the best SOS out of the four 4th place teams. When you compare teams with the same conference records and similar overall records, how can having the best strength of schedule make you viewed as the last team? What separates these 4 teams is the statistical method you are using to rank them. To say one team is viewed as the last of the 4 9-9 teams, when that team has the best SOS out of them all, seems like unnecessary added pressure. Michigan, Illinois, Penn St, and Michigan St each have put themselves in a position to be successful. Each of these teams team has strengths and weaknesses that led them to 4th place in the BigTen. Each team shouldn’t feel inferior or superior to the other 3 teams. For Battle and the other seniors, these guys have come all this way to put themselves in a position to be on equal ground to other competing teams in the conference like Michigan St, Michigan, or Illinois heading into the conference tournament. That’s what this season is all about.


#8

It’d be really nice for MSU and UM to lose their first BTT games.


#9

Maryland sits at 99 in the RPI…it’d sure be nice for them to beat NC St. to keep them under 100.


#10
[quote="pmhewitt, post:4, topic:2070"]So it looks like we are being viewed as the last of the 4 9-9 teams?[/quote]

PSU has the best SOS out of the four 4th place teams. When you compare teams with the same conference records and similar overall records, how can having the best strength of schedule make you viewed as the last team? What separates these 4 teams is the statistical method you are using to rank them. To say one team is viewed as the last of the 4 9-9 teams, when that team has the best SOS out of them all, seems like unnecessary added pressure. Michigan, Illinois, Penn St, and Michigan St each have put themselves in a position to be successful. Each of these teams team has strengths and weaknesses that led them to 4th place in the BigTen. Each team shouldn’t feel inferior or superior to the other 3 teams. For Battle and the other seniors, these guys have come all this way to put themselves in a position to be on equal ground to other competing teams in the conference like Michigan St, Michigan, or Illinois heading into the conference tournament. That’s what this season is all about.

It’s pretty simple, we had the worst non-conference performance of the 4 9-9 teams. We didn’t have a single really good win (or even pretty good win). Had we done something out of conference, we’d be judged differently. Since we didn’t, we need to make up some ground in Indy.


#11

How much will the fact PSU hasn’t beaten a team not named Minnesota or Northwestern since January hurt them, too?


#12

If this is still the case past Thursday? Pretty big then :wink:


#13

You’re not kidding. That might be a big help.


#14

I’m guessing it depends how much they consider Brooks’ injury. That second game against Michigan, which he missed, is really the difference between being 4th all alone and in a 4-way tie for 4th. If they give us credit, it won’t hurt us much. If they don’t, I think we’re dead unless we at least get to Saturday.


#15

I think PSU was the ONLY BigTen101010 team NOT to play in a made-for-TV out of conference tourney!
The selection committee is NOT going to like this…


#16

…but the Lions only have to beat them ONCE this weekend!

You’ve stumbled upon a common misconception concerning conditional probability. We tend to think of this as ‘it would be so hard to beat them twice’ when actually they only need to be beaten once, since the first victory is already in the bag.


#17

[quote=“tundra, post:15, topic:2070”]I think PSU was the ONLY BigTen101010 team NOT to play in a made-for-TV out of conference tourney!
The selection committee is NOT going to like this…[/quote]

So I’m assuming with a ridiculous claim like this, you’ll be able to provide some type of proof where not playing in an exempt tourney has historically hurt your chances at being selected? Or are you just spouting this off because you have some weird hatred for ESPN and CBS and the NCAA?