PennStateHoops.com Discussion Forum

Moving forward


#1

Okay, so time to pick ourselves up and dust ourselves off. Another game to go. What is the conventional wisdom now with the way things have shaken out over the last week regarding whether we will make the Dance if we win against Minny and at least one game in the Big Ten Tourney?


#2

We need to win at least two, and against Minny to have even an outside chance. We aren’t even on the bubble right now.


#3

[quote=“rwd5035, post:2, topic:2034”]We need to win at least two, and against Minny to have even an outside chance. We aren’t even on the bubble right now. [/quote] Yes we are …Don’t you read this board? ;D Seriously I agree we need to beat Minny and win 2 BTT games to even have a shot at getting in.


#4

Need to win two to have a shot. Need three to feel safe come selection Sunday.


#5

[quote=“Tom, post:4, topic:2034”]Need to win two to have a shot. Need three to feel safe come selection Sunday.[/quote]17-14 PSU team I just don’t see anyway at all they would get in


#6

Here is what I posted in the other thread (note that these numbers are as of Monday night’s games, and will continue to get more and more accurate as the days go by)…

RPIForecast numbers have us at 41.6 if we beat Minnesota and lose on Saturday in Indy, 31.6 if we beat Minny and lose on Sunday, and 39.4 if we lose to Minny and lose on Sunday in Indy.

An RPI of 31-32 should do the trick and I’d feel very good. An RPI around 40 and it would be a very tense Selection Sunday, but all hope is certainly not lost. We have a really unique resume, and in trying to find other teams that looks like us (in prior years), it’s hard to find any good comparisons. Add in the 3 extra bids and a historically weak bubble, and there is still a lot to be decided over the next two weeks.


#7

Disagree. I think we are “IN” with a Minne win. Look at the other teams. Only 3 BigTen11 teams are over 500% in the league. None of the rest (non top 3) qualify as "good teams."
BUT, still atleast 3 will dance.


#8

[quote=“tundra, post:7, topic:2034”]Disagree. I think we are “IN” with a Minne win. Look at the other teams. Only 3 BigTen11 teams are over 500% in the league. None of the rest (non top 3) qualify as "good teams."
BUT, still atleast 3 will dance. [/quote]You want to put some $ on that? :wink:


#9

[quote=“tundra, post:7, topic:2034”]Disagree. I think we are “IN” with a Minne win. Look at the other teams. Only 3 BigTen11 teams are over 500% in the league. None of the rest (non top 3) qualify as "good teams."
BUT, still atleast 3 will dance. [/quote]

Winning at Minny and then losing our first one in Indy would give us an RPI around 70. We’d have no chance.


#10
[quote="tundra, post:7, topic:2034"]Disagree. I think we are "IN" with a Minne win. Look at the other teams. Only 3 BigTen11 teams are over 500% in the league. None of the rest (non top 3) qualify as "good teams." BUT, still atleast 3 will dance.[/quote]

Winning at Minny and then losing our first one in Indy would give us an RPI around 70. We’d have no chance.

So 2 more wins puts us at about 41-42 you say? That’s bubble-icious at least.


#11

Actually I haven’t been following the standings in the BT too closely. Do we hold the tiebreaker over Illinois should we both wind up 9-9, and assuming MSU wins their last two (meaning UM winds up 8-10)???

I guess I’m asking what we need to get the bye.


#12
[quote="tundra, post:7, topic:2034"]Disagree. I think we are "IN" with a Minne win. Look at the other teams. Only 3 BigTen11 teams are over 500% in the league. None of the rest (non top 3) qualify as "good teams." BUT, still atleast 3 will dance.[/quote]You want to put some $ on that? ;)

OK, I will start with a :wink: …BUT, try, looking at it this way …Name me 6 BigTen101010 teams who desire a bid. I have 3 …BUT, I’ll be darned if I can come up with another…unless we consider panache! :-\


#13

[quote=“Craftsy21, post:11, topic:2034”]Actually I haven’t been following the standings in the BT too closely. Do we hold the tiebreaker over Illinois should we both wind up 9-9, and assuming MSU wins their last two (meaning UM winds up 8-10)???

I guess I’m asking what we need to get the bye.[/quote]

No, they’ll have the tiebreaker over us. If we win on Sunday, it’s looking like a first round game against Indiana.


#14
[quote="Craftsy21, post:11, topic:2034"]Actually I haven't been following the standings in the BT too closely. Do we hold the tiebreaker over Illinois should we both wind up 9-9, and assuming MSU wins their last two (meaning UM winds up 8-10)???

I guess I’m asking what we need to get the bye.[/quote]

No, they’ll have the tiebreaker over us. If we win on Sunday, it’s looking like a first round game against Indiana.

So then what’s our RPI look like if we beat minny, beat indiana, and lose to say… Purdue or Wisconsin on Friday.


#15

Moving forward…that’s part of teh problem, our forwards are always getting whistled for moving screens


#16

Sooo… in looking for teams similar to us this year, how about Wisconsin two seasons ago? 19-13 (10-8) regular season, no good OOC wins sans a roadie over NIT-bound VaTech, first game exit in the BTT even. top 10 SOS though. RPI in the mid-40’s on selection sunday.

They get in as a 12 seed. I only see 1 win over a top-25 kenpom team the entire season, a home game against #24 Illinois.

Assume we get these next two games to goto 17-14, top 5 sos, high 40’s to low 50’s RPI (maybe?)… with 3 extra teams getting in this year, I’m just sayin… might not be crazy.


#17

Personnally, I think we need to win at Minny (get another road win). And then make the final of the BTT. Right now the 2 loses to UM are killing us. Not because they are bad loses but because if we had either one of them and we should have had the one in the BJC if not both we would be 9-8 going into Minny not 8-9. If we beat Minny a 10-8 BT record would look exponentially better than 9-9, and would probably have put us in the cat bird’s seat for the 4 spot.

Hate to say it but it’s looking like the old chant of “Well just win the BTT”. Hope the guys could prove me wrong.


#18

IMO, we need to win the next two of the next three games to have any chance.
Beat Minny and Indy then lose the next game… maybe.
Lose to Minny then Beat Indy and win the next game… maybe.
Win the next three… we dance.


#19

Think we need 1 more win over an RPI top-50, so I think we need to win at Minnesota and then do exactly what we did in 2000 and 2001: win 2 BTT games - including a 2nd-round upset against a top-3 seed.


#20

And Andrew Jones puts back a Tim Frazier airball at the buzzer? :slight_smile: