Lions will try to string four wins in Indy


#1

http://blog.pennlive.com/davidjones/2010/03/lions_will_try_to_string_four.html


#2

The title should read “Teams Look to Prevent a PSU Sweep in Indy.”

It’s in the bag!


#3

“The occasions in which a double-digit-seeded mutt came closest to pulling off the quad both involved Illinois. Lon Kruger’s 1999 Illini, the last-place 11-seed, reached the final against eventual Final Four participant Michigan State but finally succumbed after giving the Spartans a decent second-half scare. And just two years ago a rebuilding 10-seed Bruce Weber outfit mucked around with Wisconsin before folding 61-48.”

There’s something these Nits share in common with that Illini squad of two years ago. Those who were around two years ago might remember that I was continually remarking how Illini was playing much better than their record would indicate. Their Pomeroy rating had them sixth in the league while their standings were actually tenth. This year PSU is in a virtually dead heat with NW for the 8th best Pomeroy rating in the conference despite their last place seed.

On the other hand, this year the three teams at the top’s numbers are much better than the three at the top two years ago so the road to four wins might be much harder. Also, Illinios’ strength was on defense, while ours is on offense and I think there’s some truth to the adage that defense wins championships.


#4

Haven’t won four straight BT games since mid-campaign last year… We need more Melle! Let him sit on the bench like Cuse does with McNamara (not sure if he is an assistant or anything… but still).


#5

Seems to me the turnaround started around the same time Mel came back to SC after his release from the Mad Ants.


#6
[quote="CAPPY, post:1, topic:926"][url=http://blog.pennlive.com/davidjones/2010/03/lions_will_try_to_string_four.html]http://blog.pennlive.com/davidjones/2010/03/lions_will_try_to_string_four.html[/url][/quote]

“The occasions in which a double-digit-seeded mutt came closest to pulling off the quad both involved Illinois. Lon Kruger’s 1999 Illini, the last-place 11-seed, reached the final against eventual Final Four participant Michigan State but finally succumbed after giving the Spartans a decent second-half scare. And just two years ago a rebuilding 10-seed Bruce Weber outfit mucked around with Wisconsin before folding 61-48.”

There’s something these Nits share in common with that Illini squad of two years ago. Those who were around two years ago might remember that I was continually remarking how Illini was playing much better than their record would indicate. Their Pomeroy rating had them sixth in the league while their standings were actually tenth. This year PSU is in a virtually dead heat with NW for the 8th best Pomeroy rating in the conference despite their last place seed.

On the other hand, this year the three teams at the top’s numbers are much better than the three at the top two years ago so the road to four wins might be much harder. Also, Illinios’ strength was on defense, while ours is on offense and I think there’s some truth to the adage that defense wins championships.

There’s one other thing that I should add about the two things the teams have in common.

Two years ago, the Illini’s “luck rating” according to Pomeroy had them last in the country. Our close call against Purdue, coupled with Holy Cross’s Patriot League tournament victory over Bucknell has again dropped PSU back to last in the country. Illinois turned their luck around in the tournament, perhaps we can too.


#7
[quote="CAPPY, post:1, topic:926"][url=http://blog.pennlive.com/davidjones/2010/03/lions_will_try_to_string_four.html]http://blog.pennlive.com/davidjones/2010/03/lions_will_try_to_string_four.html[/url][/quote]

“The occasions in which a double-digit-seeded mutt came closest to pulling off the quad both involved Illinois. Lon Kruger’s 1999 Illini, the last-place 11-seed, reached the final against eventual Final Four participant Michigan State but finally succumbed after giving the Spartans a decent second-half scare. And just two years ago a rebuilding 10-seed Bruce Weber outfit mucked around with Wisconsin before folding 61-48.”

There’s something these Nits share in common with that Illini squad of two years ago. Those who were around two years ago might remember that I was continually remarking how Illini was playing much better than their record would indicate. Their Pomeroy rating had them sixth in the league while their standings were actually tenth. This year PSU is in a virtually dead heat with NW for the 8th best Pomeroy rating in the conference despite their last place seed.

On the other hand, this year the three teams at the top’s numbers are much better than the three at the top two years ago so the road to four wins might be much harder. Also, Illinios’ strength was on defense, while ours is on offense and I think there’s some truth to the adage that defense wins championships.

There’s one other thing that I should add about the two things the teams have in common.

Two years ago, the Illini’s “luck rating” according to Pomeroy had them last in the country. Our close call against Purdue, coupled with Holy Cross’s Patriot League tournament victory over Bucknell has again dropped PSU back to last in the country. Illinois turned their luck around in the tournament, perhaps we can too.

I predict that this team will get to Saturday


#8
[quote="CAPPY, post:1, topic:926"][url=http://blog.pennlive.com/davidjones/2010/03/lions_will_try_to_string_four.html]http://blog.pennlive.com/davidjones/2010/03/lions_will_try_to_string_four.html[/url][/quote]

“The occasions in which a double-digit-seeded mutt came closest to pulling off the quad both involved Illinois. Lon Kruger’s 1999 Illini, the last-place 11-seed, reached the final against eventual Final Four participant Michigan State but finally succumbed after giving the Spartans a decent second-half scare. And just two years ago a rebuilding 10-seed Bruce Weber outfit mucked around with Wisconsin before folding 61-48.”

There’s something these Nits share in common with that Illini squad of two years ago. Those who were around two years ago might remember that I was continually remarking how Illini was playing much better than their record would indicate. Their Pomeroy rating had them sixth in the league while their standings were actually tenth. This year PSU is in a virtually dead heat with NW for the 8th best Pomeroy rating in the conference despite their last place seed.

On the other hand, this year the three teams at the top’s numbers are much better than the three at the top two years ago so the road to four wins might be much harder. Also, Illinios’ strength was on defense, while ours is on offense and I think there’s some truth to the adage that defense wins championships.

Spot on Lar.

I still remember watching that tourney run in '99 with my Illini wife. Corey Bradford took that tournament over and led the Illini to the brink. In the title game vs MSU, the Illini were down 13 at half, but I think made a run in the 2nd half. Just ran out of gas, playing their 4th game in 4 days.

If PSU is going to make a run, they will need to find a way to utilize a lot of guys to do so and find a way to rest Battle/Babb/Jones, etc. They sort of came out flat against Purdue, 41 hours removed from their game in East Lansing.

The one thing about this team is they’ve been through a tournament together and won it. Granted, not four games in four days against some of the best teams in the country. But I think PSU will play well in a win-or-go-home scenario.


#9

It’s probably a longshot that we win even 1 game, but I have to say I like the way the tournament sets up for us. Minnesota and Michigan State are both pretty good matchups for us, relatively speaking.

Whereas I don’t really ever like us having to face Purdue or Ohio State… we wouldn’t have to face either until Saturday at the earliest.


#10

Here’s some bulletin board material I guess… :smiley:

Michigan gets to play twice on Thursday apparently, and we’ve been left out altogether. :o


#11

I agree. I hate to be a wet blanket because I’d love to see us string together a couple of wins but we won 3 big ten games this year. We went 0-12 against the top 6 teams in conference. If we win our first game that’d be a huge success considering the way our season has gone. I have visions of us going 4-0 and playing in the Big Dance but 0-1 is the most likely scenario…I’m just trying to set myself up for disappointment.