PennStateHoops.com Discussion Forum

Let's look ahead at the schedule

Trying to figure out how we get to 10 wins in this conference and I’m not liking what I see. It was obviously a long shot from the start, but there is just no room for error in this thing. We need to go 7-4 the rest of the way to get there. Not a crazy number, but it means we have to beat all the middle teams and steal another from a top team.

If we assume with kenpom that we take the 4 home games he has us winning, we need to find 3 other wins that he has us losing. I can’t find a road game I like our chances in until @ Northwestern and then the finale @ Minnesota. Assuming we took both of those, which would be tremendous, that gets us to 9 wins with the 4 home wins I spoke of.

So we need to steal a road game somewhere - against OSU, Purdue, Illini, MSU, or Wisconsin. I guess you have to think MSU and Illinois are the most ripe for the taking, given that we have won in both places in recent history. However, I don’t think either is going to be taking us very lightly after rushing the court on them this past week so those games are going to be even tougher than they would normally be imo.

The other three are no easier, I’m not sure we have ever won a game in any of their buildings that I can remember. Don’t mean to be bringing the mood down around here, just curious where you think we may have an edge to pick up win #10 and have a legitimate shot at dancing?

You’re missing the Wisconsin and Ohio State home games, as we only need to go 7-6 to get to 10. Our best bet I would think would be to win those 6 that you mentioned as wins then also beat Wisconsin at home. Based upon prior seasons, it’s very unlikely that we’ll actually win all 6 of those games that we need, but it’s also a good possibility that we’ll pull off one big shocker somewhere along the way, so hopefully we’d only need 5 of them to get to 10 wins.

I’m rooting for the upset this Saturday (and doing it from the seats in Columbus. :slight_smile: ).

We’ve knocked off two ranked teams back-to-back for the first time in 57 years. Let’s make it three and do something never done by a PSU team before. :slight_smile:

I guess I wrote those off as losses in my head. I just don’t think we match up with OSU at all this year and would be more surprised to see us beat them (home or away) than any other team in the league. And Wisconsin… well, they just own us every year it seems like, although we did give them all they wanted last year in the 2nd game.

So yeah, there’s always the angle that we could just protect home and steal one more on the road (6+1) to get to 7 more wins… but I think that’s even more unlikely than the scenario I was painting, unfortunately.

Let’s hope I’m wrong. :slight_smile:

In looking at just the next 4 games:
at #2 Ohio State - Sat
at #10 Purdue - Wed
Iowa - Wed
#21 Wisconsin - Sat

Chances are PSU will struggle in their next 2 road games against the 2 top teams in the conference and in venues where PSU historically has little success in, but if they can take care of business against Iowa then they’ll be 4-4 in conference play with Wisconsin coming to the BJC. Even though Wisconsin typically executes PSU to death, PSU did have a double-digit 2nd-half lead in the Kohl center last season and a 4PM Saturday game would figure to draw in the first 5-figure attendance crowd of the season.
Hate to look too far ahead but I think it all hinges on that game, after which PSU gets into a 5-game stretch against teams they’re either close to talent-wise (Michigan, Northwestern, Minnesota) or historically play tough (Illinois, Michigan State).
And if they want to screw up my projections by beating Ohio State on Saturday I’d be alright with that too.

Probably 1-3 in their next 4. Hoping for 2-2 . Wisconsin usually owns us but maybe we can steal one at home this year ;D

I’d take 1-3 if the win was against OSU.

Another scenario:

9-7 and X amount of wins in the BTT.

One at a time guys. We can’t look too far ahead and I hope the guys aren’t either. Win against OSU and the rest of the season they will be rock stars on campus and you will start seeing fannies in the seats of the BJC. They have to keep up the intensity of the last two games against OSU.

Could it be…Another TUBBYGATE ::slight_smile:

We are more than free to look ahead. In fact, now is the first time it really makes sense to start looking ahead because they are where they need to be this far in the season. Sure, a couple more wins in the OOC would have been nice but it was the early slate of the big10 schedule that really would determine if the latter part of the schedule really meant anything. And it does now. Though we still have a ton of work to do - doesn’t hurt to see just where we stand though, and what needs to get done in the bigger picture of things instead of just looking at the very next game on the schedule.

I’m with you. This is the other side of the Maine game coin. One at a time.

[quote="jjepsu92, post:9, topic:1766"]One at a time guys. We can't look too far ahead and I hope the guys aren't either. Win against OSU and the rest of the season they will be rock stars on campus and you will start seeing fannies in the seats of the BJC. They have to keep up the intensity of the last two games against OSU.[/quote]

We are more than free to look ahead. In fact, now is the first time it really makes sense to start looking ahead because they are where they need to be this far in the season. Sure, a couple more wins in the OOC would have been nice but it was the early slate of the big10 schedule that really would determine if the latter part of the schedule really meant anything. And it does now. Though we still have a ton of work to do - doesn’t hurt to see just where we stand though, and what needs to get done in the bigger picture of things instead of just looking at the very next game on the schedule.


Hey I’m as big of PSU BB fan as there is. Not many of us out there. :wink: But Lucy has ripped that football away one too many times in the past. Let’s just say I am playing the season as cautiously optimistic now.

OSU is probably one of the best three teams out there. They have perimeter shooting, loads of veteran leadership and a brand new battleship guarding the paint. We hold our own or win in Columbus and then onto the next one.

Wisconsin is a possible win. Not saying it’s likely, but they aren’t the team they usually are.

Wow, what a turnaround in the outlaook of this team over just this past Wednesday. It goes from “fire DeChellis so we can start anew now”, to “Wisconsin is a possible win”.

:o

Nobody expected us to go 3-2 in the opening five either so let’s not get too worried about what has yet to happen.

[quote="NGameday, post:14, topic:1766"]Wisconsin is a possible win. Not saying it's likely, but they aren't the team they usually are.[/quote]

Wow, what a turnaround in the outlaook of this team over just this past Wednesday. It goes from “fire DeChellis so we can start anew now”, to “Wisconsin is a possible win”.

:o

Amazing ain’t it?

Funny I don’t hear people talking about how untalented we are anymore either. I’ll bet one loss is all it takes to bring that kind of stuff back.

[quote="Craftsy21, post:1, topic:1766"]Trying to figure out how we get to 10 wins in this conference and I'm not liking what I see. It was obviously a long shot from the start, but there is just no room for error in this thing. We need to go 7-4 the rest of the way to get there. Not a crazy number, but it means we have to beat all the middle teams and steal another from a top team.[/quote]

Nobody expected us to go 3-2 in the opening five either so let’s not get too worried about what has yet to happen.

I’m not entirely surprised by it, to be honest. Surprised we got both, but neither on it’s own is THAT shocking given what I thought about this team’s abilities. Most thought 2-3 was do-able, and nobody thought we wouldn’t have a shot against either MSU or Illinois so it’s not the shocker you’re painting it to be.

Are you saying we shouldn’t be looking ahead at all right now, or that I’m going about it in a backwards way? While I understand that you will have your games you should win most of the time not happen (Michigan), and games you don’t expect to usually win actually become victories (MSU, Illini), I don’t think it’s crazy to assume that we’ll beat more of the worse teams than the best teams if we were to get to 10 wins.

So if 10 games is our target - I don’t think it’s silly to look at the schedule and find our 7 best chances to win. I just have a hard time seeing us beat OSU, Purdue, and Wisconsin this year (or any year recently)… much harder time than I have seeing us beat Ill or MSU.

[quote="Craftsy21, post:1, topic:1766"]Trying to figure out how we get to 10 wins in this conference and I'm not liking what I see. It was obviously a long shot from the start, but there is just no room for error in this thing. We need to go 7-4 the rest of the way to get there. Not a crazy number, but it means we have to beat all the middle teams and steal another from a top team.[/quote]

Nobody expected us to go 3-2 in the opening five either so let’s not get too worried about what has yet to happen.

I’m not entirely surprised by it, to be honest. Surprised we got both, but neither on it’s own is THAT shocking given what I thought about this team’s abilities. Most thought 2-3 was do-able, and nobody thought we wouldn’t have a shot against either MSU or Illinois so it’s not the shocker you’re painting it to be.

Are you saying we shouldn’t be looking ahead at all right now, or that I’m going about it in a backwards way? While I understand that you will have your games you should win most of the time not happen (Michigan), and games you don’t expect to usually win actually become victories (MSU, Illini), I don’t think it’s crazy to assume that we’ll beat more of the worse teams than the best teams if we were to get to 10 wins.

So if 10 games is our target - I don’t think it’s silly to look at the schedule and find our 7 best chances to win. I just have a hard time seeing us beat OSU, Purdue, and Wisconsin this year (or any year recently)… much harder time than I have seeing us beat Ill or MSU.

I’m saying don’t lose any sleep over any individual game. For one thing, we need to go 7-6 not 7-4 - and given that we went 3-2 in this demanding stretch, going 7-6 certainly isn’t out of the question. Leave it at that without trying to pinpoint exactly which ones are wins and which ones are losses, because you’re bound to get a couple of them wrong. Just remember how you eat an elephant.

[quote="NGameday, post:14, topic:1766"]Wisconsin is a possible win. Not saying it's likely, but they aren't the team they usually are.[/quote]

Wow, what a turnaround in the outlaook of this team over just this past Wednesday. It goes from “fire DeChellis so we can start anew now”, to “Wisconsin is a possible win”.

:o

Amazing ain’t it?

Funny I don’t hear people talking about how untalented we are anymore either. I’ll bet one loss is all it takes to bring that kind of stuff back.

Not really. I’m happy with the way the team is playing currently but i still don’t think they are that talented and I also don’t think they are going to make a serious run at the dance. Here’s to hoping myself and many others are dead wrong