PennStateHoops.com Discussion Forum

KenPom is getting famous.. pretty good NYT write-up here


#1

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/24/sports/ncaabasketball/24ncaa.html?pagewanted=1&_r=2&ref=sports

I’d love to get to see some of the Synergy stuff sometimes, especially as a (poor excuse for a) sports bettor. ;D


#2

[quote=“Craftsy21, post:1, topic:2236”]http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/24/sports/ncaabasketball/24ncaa.html?pagewanted=1&_r=2&ref=sports

I’d love to get to see some of the Synergy stuff sometimes, especially as a (poor excuse for a) sports bettor. ;D[/quote]

Once again, PennStateHoops.com is out ahead of the curve (even though not everybody here buys in ;D ).


#3

I’m not a numbers guy. But KenPom is a numbers site that makes sense. His numbers tell you all sorts of useful info about a team and a player’s style. He clearly loves basketball. He’s not just an all-purpose statgeek.


#4
[quote="Craftsy21, post:1, topic:2236"][url=http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/24/sports/ncaabasketball/24ncaa.html?pagewanted=1&_r=2&ref=sports]http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/24/sports/ncaabasketball/24ncaa.html?pagewanted=1&_r=2&ref=sports[/url]

I’d love to get to see some of the Synergy stuff sometimes, especially as a (poor excuse for a) sports bettor. ;D[/quote]

Once again, PennStateHoops.com is out ahead of the curve (even though not everybody here buys in ;D ).

For the amount of work he does, he’s fine, better than most, just not better than all. Along those lines, Lar, I have an 18 game lead on him, something like 90-72, so I’ll give him 3 opportunities to get some back. I couldn’t find the kenpom challenge(after going back 3 pages), so I’ll enter them here:

I’ll take:
Butler, Florida, UConn.

Getting 9 points, I’d also take Zona, but no bet for this challenge.


#5
[quote="Craftsy21, post:1, topic:2236"][url=http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/24/sports/ncaabasketball/24ncaa.html?pagewanted=1&_r=2&ref=sports]http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/24/sports/ncaabasketball/24ncaa.html?pagewanted=1&_r=2&ref=sports[/url]

I’d love to get to see some of the Synergy stuff sometimes, especially as a (poor excuse for a) sports bettor. ;D[/quote]

Once again, PennStateHoops.com is out ahead of the curve (even though not everybody here buys in ;D ).

For the amount of work he does, he’s fine, better than most, just not better than all. Along those lines, Lar, I have an 18 game lead on him, something like 90-72, so I’ll give him 3 opportunities to get some back. I couldn’t find the kenpom challenge(after going back 3 pages), so I’ll enter them here:

I’ll take:
Butler, Florida, UConn.

Getting 9 points, I’d also take Zona, but no bet for this challenge.

Probably because the only think that you’re looking at is he’s score predictions which aren’t what his site is actually all about. The predictions just happen to be a by-product of his work.

As far as the challenge goes, I got distracted once PSU got into the tournament. I’ll dig the thread and results up sometime over the weekend.


#6
[quote="Craftsy21, post:1, topic:2236"][url=http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/24/sports/ncaabasketball/24ncaa.html?pagewanted=1&_r=2&ref=sports]http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/24/sports/ncaabasketball/24ncaa.html?pagewanted=1&_r=2&ref=sports[/url]

I’d love to get to see some of the Synergy stuff sometimes, especially as a (poor excuse for a) sports bettor. ;D[/quote]

Once again, PennStateHoops.com is out ahead of the curve (even though not everybody here buys in ;D ).

For the amount of work he does, he’s fine, better than most, just not better than all. Along those lines, Lar, I have an 18 game lead on him, something like 90-72, so I’ll give him 3 opportunities to get some back. I couldn’t find the kenpom challenge(after going back 3 pages), so I’ll enter them here:

I’ll take:
Butler, Florida, UConn.

Getting 9 points, I’d also take Zona, but no bet for this challenge.

Probably because the only think that you’re looking at is he’s score predictions which aren’t what his site is actually all about. The predictions just happen to be a by-product of his work.

As far as the challenge goes, I got distracted once PSU got into the tournament. I’ll dig the thread and results up sometime over the weekend.

I guess, but if his predictions aren’t that accurate, not sure of the usefulness. A good example of how stats may not indicate what happened, IMO, was the OSU game at the BJC. While Diebler hit 10 straight treys, almost every time down the floor in the second half, OSU dumped it inside to Sullinger, he got double teamed and he kicked it out, and the ball found Diebler. I don’t think Sully had a bucket in the second half. If he did it was 1 or 2. He was not a scoring factor. But what does the 10 trey by Diebler tell you? That we an’t cover the arc? Or we can’t cover Sullinger and had to double him? What would I have done in that situation? On D, not sure, they’re very tough, and my pick to win it all. On O, pick n roll, passes to the high post, and some cutters. We did none of that. Does kenpom point any of that out? Anything that got Sully away from the basket but got it inside for us would have worked. It’s why I predicted NU would play them well in the tourney. What’d they lose by a couple points? Those back doors work vs. OSU. If you don’t have a low post game or are outclassed there, it’s a great way to score inside. When you talk in vague terms like offensive or defensive efficiencies, not sure exactly what to fix. It tells you you’re not getting it done, but not how or what to fix.

BTW, if Butler wins, I’ll be 3-0 vs. kenpom tonight. And I’d be getting 9 on Zona, which isn’t looking too bad.


#7

Lar, just can’t resist. Last night’s results:

kid 3-0
kenpom 0-3

Season games behind
kid* ~93-72
kenom 72-93 21.0 :wink:

*clinched title

Zona getting 9. Covered by 26. I can thank this contest for getting to know these teams a bit

Not to beat up kenpom, but he was 0-4 last night. I know he does a lot of stats, but if they’re not an accurate predictor of outcomes, particularly in such important contests and a full season of data, how valid are his numbers in terms of usefulness?

My analysis of the games was relatively simple. Butler beat Pitt, a tougher team than Wisky IMO, and I’ve seen Wisky struggle to score. Doyle didn’t like them and I agreed; Duke was overrated, not physically strong, and 9 pts. was nutty;Florida spends more time in the weight room than many and was going to dominate inside and; UConn’s Kemba Walker proved in the conference tourney that he could carry a team, and I just didn’t buy the MWC as a conference as competitive as some suggested, certainly not the Big East, despite its troubles in the NCAA’s, (though SDSU impressed me last night).


#8

::slight_smile:


#9

Talk about “not getting it” LOL


#10

[quote=“kidcoyote, post:7, topic:2236”]Lar, just can’t resist. Last night’s results:

kid 3-0
kenpom 0-3

Season games behind
kid* ~93-72
kenom 72-93 21.0 :wink:

*clinched title

Zona getting 9. Covered by 26. I can thank this contest for getting to know these teams a bit

Not to beat up kenpom, but he was 0-4 last night. I know he does a lot of stats, but if they’re not an accurate predictor of outcomes, particularly in such important contests and a full season of data, how valid are his numbers in terms of usefulness?

My analysis of the games was relatively simple. Butler beat Pitt, a tougher team than Wisky IMO, and I’ve seen Wisky struggle to score. Doyle didn’t like them and I agreed; Duke was overrated, not physically strong, and 9 pts. was nutty;Florida spends more time in the weight room than many and was going to dominate inside and; UConn’s Kemba Walker proved in the conference tourney that he could carry a team, and I just didn’t buy the MWC as a conference as competitive as some suggested, certainly not the Big East, despite its troubles in the NCAA’s, (though SDSU impressed me last night).[/quote]

I’ll give you a treatise on it when I get a chance. I just wanted to let you know that I’m not avoiding the subject.