Joe Lunardi has Illini out!


#1

He takes a pre tourney, BigTen #5 seed, Illini from first four out, and then advances them to first four in (actually they were first of the last four in), then they loose a double OT game to a team that is arguably a 1 seed and they go back to first 4 out. ??? ???
Meanwhile, pre tourney, BigTen #6 seed, MN, who is on a lock for being out, beats a lowly rated PSU, upsets Sparty on O.T. and then beats a Purdue team that is not near their season best without Robbie Hummell and elevates them into last four in. :o :o
I guess it is good for his noteriety but IMO that scenerio shouldn’t be. I understand that there are other forces at work here but it would be wrong for Illini tourney performance to move them backward on anyones dance list.


#2

Lets compare the resumes:
RPI: Illinois is 73, Minnesota is 69 pretty much a wash
SOS: Illinois 39, Minnesota is 47 not alot to separate there
Overall record: Illini 19-14, Minny 21-12
vs Top 50: Illini 5-9, Minny 5-6
vs Top 100: Illini 6-9, Minny 5-8

Negatives for Illini: 8 wins against teams with sub 200 rpi, Minnesota 3 loses to sub 100 teams

Head to head: Minnesota beat Illinios


#3

[quote=“Duff, post:1, topic:972”]He takes a pre tourney, BigTen #5 seed, Illini from first four out, and then advances them to first four in (actually they were first of the last four in), then they loose a double OT game to a team that is arguably a 1 seed and they go back to first 4 out. ??? ???
Meanwhile, pre tourney, BigTen #6 seed, MN, who is on a lock for being out, beats a lowly rated PSU, upsets Sparty on O.T. and then beats a Purdue team that is not near their season best without Robbie Hummell and elevates them into last four in. :o :o
I guess it is good for his noteriety but IMO that scenerio shouldn’t be. I understand that there are other forces at work here but it would be wrong for Illini tourney performance to move them backward on anyones dance list.[/quote]
Maybe Minnesota beating the top five teams in the Big Ten this season has something to do with it? Or, perhaps, Lunardi values Minnesota winning five of their last six games, or seven of their last nine games vs. Illinois, who has lost four of their last five games and six of their last eight games? Or, possibly, he values Minnesota’s win at Illinois on February 27th as being valuable? Or maybe Lunardi devalues Illinois’ 8 wins against teams below 200 in the RPI?

Not arguing one team vs. another. Just offering potential reasons why Joe says it would.


#4

I don’t think that Illinois has played well enough this year to get in. If they get in, that is OK, but it is not like they are going to get ‘robbed’ if they don’t get in. Another thing is Lunardi, and maybe the committee, won’t want to add a 6th Big Ten team. So do you pick Minny or Illinois. Tough not to pick Minny after what they did.


#5

Wouldn’t that be odd another big ten team who won 10 conference games and could be left out and replaced by a another big ten team with a .500 conference record.


#6

Considering the Big Ten Tournament Championship game won’t end until at least 5:30 tomorrow, I would imagine that a possible scenario is the 5th Big ten bid will either go to Minnesota or Illinois; Gophers should they win, or Illinois if Minny loses.

Typically, by tomorrow morning, they have already started seeding teams and have already determined who is “in” and who is “out”, at least according to the literature I have read on the subject.

Frankly, I am surprised more people aren’t questioning whether Wake Forest should be included?

Losers of 5 of their last 6 games, a game behind VT in the ACC standings and they lost at VT during the regular season.


#7

For what it’s worth, I’ve had Illinois winning the NIT, so maybe we can start a Big Ten NIT Dynasty. Actually, that would be good for the league in a way.

  1. Elite teams in National Championship game
  2. Many teams in the Dance
  3. Teams that don’t make it winning the NIT.

And then in the end people will only watch the Big East Tournament even though the Big Ten has had maybe the best it’s ever had.


#8
[quote="Cletus11, post:4, topic:972"]I don't think that Illinois has played well enough this year to get in. If they get in, that is OK, but it is not like they are going to get 'robbed' if they don't get in. Another thing is Lunardi, and maybe the committee, won't want to add a 6th Big Ten team. So do you pick Minny or Illinois. Tough not to pick Minny after what they did.[/quote]

Wouldn’t that be odd another big ten team who won 10 conference games and could be left out and replaced by a another big ten team with a .500 conference record.


I thought about this for a moment and realized that there is increasing precedent for the tournament selection committee having made this choice recently.

We are all aware of last season’s PSU vs. Michigan/Minnesota choice.

In 2008, Arizona was selected over Arizona State despite losing twice to the Sun Devils during the season AND finishing 9-9 vs. ASU’s 10-8 Pac Ten record.

In the same season, Oregon was also selected over ASU despite also being 9-9 in the Pac Ten.

I imagine there might be other examples, but those are the only ones that come to mind at the moment.


#9

The issue about Illinois is that a lot of times when teams like this don’t make it, it is because they lose in the first round. Illinois beat a tough tourney bound Wiscy team and then took most likely a #1 seed to double OT. That is why it is going to be tough to keep them out because they played well in the tourny.


#10

But they have 14 loses which would be among the most for an at-large team.


#11

[quote=“Chaze2k1, post:2, topic:972”]Lets compare the resumes:
RPI: Illinois is 73, Minnesota is 69 pretty much a wash
SOS: Illinois 39, Minnesota is 47 not alot to separate there
Overall record: Illini 19-14, Minny 21-12
vs Top 50: Illini 5-9, Minny 5-6
vs Top 100: Illini 6-9, Minny 5-8

Negatives for Illini: 8 wins against teams with sub 200 rpi, Minnesota 3 loses to sub 100 teams

Head to head: Minnesota beat Illinios[/quote]
Sorry, I wasn’t clear. What it is that I do not understand is how the results of the BigTen tournament evolved into the changes as described in my post. Most all the talking heads on TV quote and refer to Lunardi. Those comments formulate opinion of the masses.
My amazement is:
If you enter the tournament as MN (seeded behind the Illini) did as being locked out of the dance, then logic would dictate you only get into the dance if you WIN THE BigTen TOURNAMENT CHAMPIONSHIP!
But he has them in before the championship game.

Going into the tournament Illini were in the first four out list. Then they defeat Wisconsin and go to the first four in list (no problem with that). I just do not see the logic in dropping them back into the “out of the tourney list” based on a double overtime lose to a team that I expect gets a 1 seed.
I am not looking at resumes, not debating body of work worthiness. I have no dog in this fight. I am questioning the thinking process and rationale of Lunardi who is a nationally highly referenced “expert” who has a lot to do with determining opinion.

A year ago, I felt that PSU suffered from this same final four in, out fickelness.
My point and opinion is;
If MN was a supposedly a lock not to get to the dance, then they should have to win the conference tourney to get in and not show up on any “in list” till they do.
Illini was on the in list before todays game and their performance today against a top 4-5 team should not have been deemed so negative that it took them from an in the dance to an out of the dance status.


#12
[quote="Chaze2k1, post:2, topic:972"]Lets compare the resumes: RPI: Illinois is 73, Minnesota is 69 pretty much a wash SOS: Illinois 39, Minnesota is 47 not alot to separate there Overall record: Illini 19-14, Minny 21-12 vs Top 50: Illini 5-9, Minny 5-6 vs Top 100: Illini 6-9, Minny 5-8

Negatives for Illini: 8 wins against teams with sub 200 rpi, Minnesota 3 loses to sub 100 teams

Head to head: Minnesota beat Illinios[/quote]
Sorry, I wasn’t clear. What it is that I do not understand is how the results of the BigTen tournament evolved into the changes as described in my post. Most all the talking heads on TV quote and refer to Lunardi. Those comments formulate opinion of the masses.
My amazement is:
If you enter the tournament as MN (seeded behind the Illini) did as being locked out of the dance, then logic would dictate you only get into the dance if you WIN THE BigTen TOURNAMENT CHAMPIONSHIP!
But he has them in before the championship game.

Going into the tournament Illini were in the first four out list. Then they defeat Wisconsin and go to the first four in list (no problem with that). I just do not see the logic in dropping them back into the “out of the tourney list” based on a double overtime lose to a team that I expect gets a 1 seed.
I am not looking at resumes, not debating body of work worthiness. I have no dog in this fight. I am questioning the thinking process and rationale of Lunardi who is a nationally highly referenced “expert” who has a lot to do with determining opinion.

A year ago, I felt that PSU suffered from this same final four in, out fickelness.
My point and opinion is;
If MN was a supposedly a lock not to get to the dance, then they should have to win the conference tourney to get in and not show up on any “in list” till they do.
Illini was on the in list before todays game and their performance today against a top 4-5 team should not have been deemed so negative that it took them from an in the dance to an out of the dance status.


Lunardi has mole inside the committee is what some people claim. there are late minute moves like this don’t make sense yet come out being correct almost every year.

#13
[quote="Chaze2k1, post:2, topic:972"]Lets compare the resumes: RPI: Illinois is 73, Minnesota is 69 pretty much a wash SOS: Illinois 39, Minnesota is 47 not alot to separate there Overall record: Illini 19-14, Minny 21-12 vs Top 50: Illini 5-9, Minny 5-6 vs Top 100: Illini 6-9, Minny 5-8

Negatives for Illini: 8 wins against teams with sub 200 rpi, Minnesota 3 loses to sub 100 teams

Head to head: Minnesota beat Illinios[/quote]
Sorry, I wasn’t clear. What it is that I do not understand is how the results of the BigTen tournament evolved into the changes as described in my post. Most all the talking heads on TV quote and refer to Lunardi. Those comments formulate opinion of the masses.
My amazement is:
If you enter the tournament as MN (seeded behind the Illini) did as being locked out of the dance, then logic would dictate you only get into the dance if you WIN THE BigTen TOURNAMENT CHAMPIONSHIP!
But he has them in before the championship game.

Going into the tournament Illini were in the first four out list. Then they defeat Wisconsin and go to the first four in list (no problem with that). I just do not see the logic in dropping them back into the “out of the tourney list” based on a double overtime lose to a team that I expect gets a 1 seed.
I am not looking at resumes, not debating body of work worthiness. I have no dog in this fight. I am questioning the thinking process and rationale of Lunardi who is a nationally highly referenced “expert” who has a lot to do with determining opinion.

A year ago, I felt that PSU suffered from this same final four in, out fickelness.
My point and opinion is;
If MN was a supposedly a lock not to get to the dance, then they should have to win the conference tourney to get in and not show up on any “in list” till they do.
Illini was on the in list before todays game and their performance today against a top 4-5 team should not have been deemed so negative that it took them from an in the dance to an out of the dance status.

But we also have to remember the wins of Houston, San Diego State and Washington as having effect on the this situation as well. I wouldn’t think Morgan State making the tourney have an impact on Minnesota, since the Gophers beat them.


#14

[quote=“Chaze2k1, post:2, topic:972”]Lets compare the resumes:
RPI: Illinois is 73, Minnesota is 69 pretty much a wash
SOS: Illinois 39, Minnesota is 47 not alot to separate there
Overall record: Illini 19-14, Minny 21-12
vs Top 50: Illini 5-9, Minny 5-6
vs Top 100: Illini 6-9, Minny 5-8

Negatives for Illini: 8 wins against teams with sub 200 rpi, Minnesota 3 loses to sub 100 teams

Head to head: Minnesota beat Illinios[/quote]

Illinois won at Clemson and at Wisconsin. Also beat Vanderbilt, MSU (w/o Lucas, though he ain’t all that this year) and Wisconsin again playing at full strength.

Minnesota’s only true significant road win was at Illinois. They did beat Butler at a neutral site and won at home against OSU (without Turner) and Wisconsin (without Leuer)…Other than that, not much to show for before this week.

Tough call, but I’d say they would need to beat OSU to assure themselves of a trip to the tourney. Illinois is most likely rooting for OSU to blow doors off Minny, then they’d have a comparison. Their double OT loss vs Minny’s blowout loss.

Whatever happened to “we don’t take conferences, we take teams” approach in the first place???


#15
[quote="Chaze2k1, post:2, topic:972"]Lets compare the resumes: RPI: Illinois is 73, Minnesota is 69 pretty much a wash SOS: Illinois 39, Minnesota is 47 not alot to separate there Overall record: Illini 19-14, Minny 21-12 vs Top 50: Illini 5-9, Minny 5-6 vs Top 100: Illini 6-9, Minny 5-8

Negatives for Illini: 8 wins against teams with sub 200 rpi, Minnesota 3 loses to sub 100 teams

Head to head: Minnesota beat Illinios[/quote]
Sorry, I wasn’t clear. What it is that I do not understand is how the results of the BigTen tournament evolved into the changes as described in my post. Most all the talking heads on TV quote and refer to Lunardi. Those comments formulate opinion of the masses.
My amazement is:
If you enter the tournament as MN (seeded behind the Illini) did as being locked out of the dance, then logic would dictate you only get into the dance if you WIN THE BigTen TOURNAMENT CHAMPIONSHIP!
But he has them in before the championship game.

Going into the tournament Illini were in the first four out list. Then they defeat Wisconsin and go to the first four in list (no problem with that). I just do not see the logic in dropping them back into the “out of the tourney list” based on a double overtime lose to a team that I expect gets a 1 seed.
I am not looking at resumes, not debating body of work worthiness. I have no dog in this fight. I am questioning the thinking process and rationale of Lunardi who is a nationally highly referenced “expert” who has a lot to do with determining opinion.

A year ago, I felt that PSU suffered from this same final four in, out fickelness.
My point and opinion is;
If MN was a supposedly a lock not to get to the dance, then they should have to win the conference tourney to get in and not show up on any “in list” till they do.
Illini was on the in list before todays game and their performance today against a top 4-5 team should not have been deemed so negative that it took them from an in the dance to an out of the dance status.

But we also have to remember the wins of Houston, San Diego State and Washington as having effect on the this situation as well. I wouldn’t think Morgan State making the tourney have an impact on Minnesota, since the Gophers beat them.


Understand, and I did say in my first post that I understand that there are other forces at work here. Still, none of that has a thing to do with MN going from a not on his “in list or first 4 out list” and a lock to not make it into the dance, to getting there without winning the torunament first.

#16

I’ve been telling people for weeks that Illinois isn’t getting in. If they did, they’d have the worst RPI ever for an at-large bid. They are also 11-14 against the RPI Top 200. Those are numbers that just don’t get bids. Jerry Palm has had Illinois out by a lot the last couple of weeks, and they just crept into his last 4 out after yesterday’s win. With a loss today and a couple of bids stolen in other conferences, I think it’s about a 2 in 3 chance that they head to the NIT. Those 5 big wins are great, but they have little to nothing after that. Throw in some bad losses and they have the classic profile of an NIT team (even with the weak bubble this year). PSU’s resume last season was much better than the Illinois resume right now (though they are quite similiar).


#17

I really haven’t had the time to watch much hoops outside of the Big Ten this season (nor have I cared to), so it’s hard for me to say that the Illini deserve a bid over this ACC team or that Big East team.

My guess is that CBS will want to have both Michael Jordan and Ralph Sampson in the crowd watching their games. So based on that unscientific model, I say that both Illinois and Minnesota get a bid. :wink:


#18
[quote="Chaze2k1, post:2, topic:972"]Lets compare the resumes: RPI: Illinois is 73, Minnesota is 69 pretty much a wash SOS: Illinois 39, Minnesota is 47 not alot to separate there Overall record: Illini 19-14, Minny 21-12 vs Top 50: Illini 5-9, Minny 5-6 vs Top 100: Illini 6-9, Minny 5-8

Negatives for Illini: 8 wins against teams with sub 200 rpi, Minnesota 3 loses to sub 100 teams

Head to head: Minnesota beat Illinios[/quote]
Sorry, I wasn’t clear. What it is that I do not understand is how the results of the BigTen tournament evolved into the changes as described in my post. Most all the talking heads on TV quote and refer to Lunardi. Those comments formulate opinion of the masses.
My amazement is:
If you enter the tournament as MN (seeded behind the Illini) did as being locked out of the dance, then logic would dictate you only get into the dance if you WIN THE BigTen TOURNAMENT CHAMPIONSHIP!
But he has them in before the championship game.

Going into the tournament Illini were in the first four out list. Then they defeat Wisconsin and go to the first four in list (no problem with that). I just do not see the logic in dropping them back into the “out of the tourney list” based on a double overtime lose to a team that I expect gets a 1 seed.
I am not looking at resumes, not debating body of work worthiness. I have no dog in this fight. I am questioning the thinking process and rationale of Lunardi who is a nationally highly referenced “expert” who has a lot to do with determining opinion.

A year ago, I felt that PSU suffered from this same final four in, out fickelness.
My point and opinion is;
If MN was a supposedly a lock not to get to the dance, then they should have to win the conference tourney to get in and not show up on any “in list” till they do.
Illini was on the in list before todays game and their performance today against a top 4-5 team should not have been deemed so negative that it took them from an in the dance to an out of the dance status.


That would seem a question best posed to Lunardi. You would be able to muster as good of a guess as well as any of us.

#19

The team with the worst RPI to ever get an at-large bid was New Mexico, but that was back in 199. Since the formula changed a few years back, I don’t know what the highest team to get in was. Regardless, it wouldn’t seem appropriate to compare the two instances.


#20

Well possible the bubble shrank because of New Mexico St. win over Utah St. Utah State rpi is project in 20’s.