[quote=“djones, post:7, topic:1981”]mhenry:
- Jerry has nothing to do with RPIForecast. His site is collegerpi.com.
- Jerry’s bracket is not a prediction. He enters this directly below it… This projection is based on the assumption that today is Selection Sunday. No attempt has been made to predict future results. He believes Michigan would be selected were the season to end today.
- The RPI is merely one factor taken into consideration.
- A 65 RPI is hardly a deal-breaker. Teams in the 70s have been granted at-large bids. And that was before a 68-team field.
- Jerry was my partner at the day-and-a-half-long 2009 bracket seminar run by the NCAA in Indianapolis. I may have mentioned here before that Jerry several times during the proceedings – as diplomatically as humanly possible – corrected Dave Worlock and Greg Shaheen on their math. The man is not only brilliant but a very nice guy. And I assure you, Dave and Greg respect no one more than Jerry. Nobody is in his realm in knowledge of this process including Lunardi and the rest of them.
- So, I would submit, if Jerry says Michigan is “in” as of now, it’s a better guess than anyone else on this planet could make.[/quote]
He’s assuming Michigan wins at Minny and we lose at Minny. If that happens, Michigan and PSU are both 8-10. Yes, if that happens he’s probably correct. But if we win at Minny or we both lose at Minny, no he’s not correct. 7-11 for UM not going to make it, and if we’re 9-9 and they’re 8-10, they make it over us? Doubt it.
[quote=“Joz, post:10, topic:1981”]Michigan has been scaring me for a while. While they have no 1-25 RPI wins, they’re good (3-2) in the 25-50 range and solid (5-3) in the 50-100 range. Compare that to us (1-5 vs. 1-25, 2-2 vs. 25-50, 4-6 vs. 50-100). Their resume is similar. We talk about how we came close @Purdue and @OSU. Well, Michigan lost by one possession basically vs. Kansas and Syracuse. OH and they beat Clemson OOC. Not to mention they swept us (somehow). And no, they don’t pass the eyeball test. Those who watch them realize they’re not very good… but they win freaking games somehow.
As far as I see it, MSU is gonna get the benefit of the doubt. Minny is tanking (we NEED to win). Illinois is ahead of us, whether or not they should be. Their losses are almost as bad as ours (UIC, us ( ;D),Indiana, NW), though I think their key wins are better (UNC, Gonzaga, Wiscy, MD(!)). And UM is the wildcard that could doom us.[/quote]
I think UM passes the eyeball test. There’s nobody in their offense who isn’t involved. Morris is great, Hardaway has really come on(won 2nd frosh of the week in consecutive weeks), they have shooters in Novak and Douglass, and Morgan is good inside, and Smotrycz is decent. If they’re not shooting well, they get beat, but if they’re close, they can score in a hurry. They can be beaten by a team that plays big. Unfortunately, we don’t play big, unless it’s vs. NW. They should lose tonight, but I wouldn’t bet on it. They’re 4 1/2 pt. underdogs. With the points, a good bet, IMO. If we can beat Wisky at home, so can they.