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Jerry Palm says

The Big Ten gets 7 teams in the tourney and PSU is NOT one of them.

From RPIForecast:

Illinois:
EXP RPI - 44
EXP SOS- 18
EXP REC- 19-12

Minnesota:
EXP RPI - 47
EXP SOS- 35
EXP Rec - 19-11

Michigan St:
EXP RPI - 50
EXP SOS- 7
EXP Rec - 16-13

Penn St:
EXP RPI - 65
EXP SOS- 4
EXP Rec - 15-14

Michigan:
EXP RPI - 66
EXP SOS- 20
EXP Rec - 17-13

I think Jerry is being a bit presumptious here. First of all, If PSU does finish with a 65 RPI, there is no dance. Secondly, if Michigan does in fact end up with an RPI of 66, they are not dancing. PSU MUST win a minimum of 2 more games before the B10 tourney. Michigan would likely need to win out or have a huge run. If Palm wants 7 B10 schools in, then his homework wasn’t done very well. Michigan has little to no shot at this point barring a miraculous run. Their RPI is just too far away. If they did win their last 3, their projected RPI would still be around 45 which is VERY bubblicious.

If Michigan goes 3-0, they will get in. However, I expect them to go 0-3.

Michigan’s record should be 17-13 there.

With that, expected conference records would be:

Illinois - 9-9 ( Wins vs. Iowa, IU, loss vs. Purdue)
Minny - 8-10 (Wins vs. PSU, NW, loss vs. Michigan)
MSU - 9-9 (Wins vs. Michigan, Iowa, loss vs. Purdue)
PSU - 8-10 (Win vs. NW, losses vs. Minny, OSU)
Michigan - 8-10 (Win vs. Minny, losses vs. MSU, Wisky)

I don’t pay attention to paid forecasters…but I will offer dance comments:

No 8-10 BigT10en101010 team DESERVES to go the dance unless they make it to end of year tourney final. Then they should be a "maybe."
The BigT10en101010 is not very difficult this year. Only 3 good teams.
I think “politics/panache” have a lot to do with selection. Rumors are the Big(L)East will get 11 bids. If they get 11 bids the committee will inflate the bid # of bids to other major conferences. Making nice-nice with power conferences is good politics…

[quote=“tundra, post:4, topic:1981”]I don’t pay attention to paid forecasters…but I will offer dance comments:

No 8-10 BigT10en101010 team DESERVES to go the dance unless they make it to end of year tourney final. Then they should be a "maybe."
The BigT10en101010 is not very difficult this year. Only 3 good teams.
I think “politics/panache” have a lot to do with selection. Rumors are the Big(L)East will get 11 bids. If they get 11 bids the committee will inflate the bid # of bids to other major conferences. Making nice-nice with power conferences is good politics… [/quote]

???

So I’m guessing you think that the NCAAs should only have about 45 teams this year.

[quote=“mhenry41, post:1, topic:1981”]The Big Ten gets 7 teams in the tourney and PSU is NOT one of them.

From RPIForecast:

Illinois:
EXP RPI - 44
EXP SOS- 18
EXP REC- 19-12

Minnesota:
EXP RPI - 47
EXP SOS- 35
EXP Rec - 19-11

Michigan St:
EXP RPI - 50
EXP SOS- 7
EXP Rec - 16-13

Penn St:
EXP RPI - 65
EXP SOS- 4
EXP Rec - 15-14

Michigan:
EXP RPI - 66
EXP SOS- 20
EXP Rec - 17-13

I think Jerry is being a bit presumptious here. First of all, If PSU does finish with a 65 RPI, there is no dance. Secondly, if Michigan does in fact end up with an RPI of 66, they are not dancing. PSU MUST win a minimum of 2 more games before the B10 tourney. Michigan would likely need to win out or have a huge run. If Palm wants 7 B10 schools in, then his homework wasn’t done very well. Michigan has little to no shot at this point barring a miraculous run. Their RPI is just too far away. If they did win their last 3, their projected RPI would still be around 45 which is VERY bubblicious.[/quote]Yeah I don’ think any 15-14 team is getting into the Dance. Especially one named PSU

mhenry:

  1. Jerry has nothing to do with RPIForecast. His site is collegerpi.com.
  2. Jerry’s bracket is not a prediction. He enters this directly below it… This projection is based on the assumption that today is Selection Sunday. No attempt has been made to predict future results. He believes Michigan would be selected were the season to end today.
  3. The RPI is merely one factor taken into consideration.
  4. A 65 RPI is hardly a deal-breaker. Teams in the 70s have been granted at-large bids. And that was before a 68-team field.
  5. Jerry was my partner at the day-and-a-half-long 2009 bracket seminar run by the NCAA in Indianapolis. I may have mentioned here before that Jerry several times during the proceedings – as diplomatically as humanly possible – corrected Dave Worlock and Greg Shaheen on their math. The man is not only brilliant but a very nice guy. And I assure you, Dave and Greg respect no one more than Jerry. Nobody is in his realm in knowledge of this process including Lunardi and the rest of them.
  6. So, I would submit, if Jerry says Michigan is “in” as of now, it’s a better guess than anyone else on this planet could make.

[quote=“djones, post:7, topic:1981”]mhenry:

  1. Jerry has nothing to do with RPIForecast. His site is collegerpi.com.
  2. Jerry’s bracket is not a prediction. He enters this directly below it… This projection is based on the assumption that today is Selection Sunday. No attempt has been made to predict future results. He believes Michigan would be selected were the season to end today.[/quote]

This.

Aside from their start to the B10 and the UTEP loss (only RPI 60, not a BL), Michigan has a Dance-able resume, RIGHT NOW. Do they pass the eye test? Not in my opinion. Lets see what they do in their final three games, I doubt they post a winning record, but if they do, they will be slipping on their Dancing shoes.

[quote=“djones, post:7, topic:1981”]mhenry:

  1. Jerry has nothing to do with RPIForecast. His site is collegerpi.com.
  2. Jerry’s bracket is not a prediction. He enters this directly below it… This projection is based on the assumption that today is Selection Sunday. No attempt has been made to predict future results. He believes Michigan would be selected were the season to end today.
  3. The RPI is merely one factor taken into consideration.
  4. A 65 RPI is hardly a deal-breaker. Teams in the 70s have been granted at-large bids. And that was before a 68-team field.
  5. Jerry was my partner at the day-and-a-half-long 2009 bracket seminar run by the NCAA in Indianapolis. I may have mentioned here before that Jerry several times during the proceedings – as diplomatically as humanly possible – corrected Dave Worlock and Greg Shaheen on their math. The man is not only brilliant but a very nice guy. And I assure you, Dave and Greg respect no one more than Jerry. Nobody is in his realm in knowledge of this process including Lunardi and the rest of them.
  6. So, I would submit, if Jerry says Michigan is “in” as of now, it’s a better guess than anyone else on this planet could make.[/quote]

dj,

Thanks for sharing that info.

One comment from your article on Battle and the boys from today’s “paper”. You think PSU has to win its next four (including the 4/5 game) to get a bid??? I would think if they finish out 3-0 and lose to MSU in the BTT that that would be enough. I’d even go so far to say that 2 of the next 3 whether its vs Ohio State (major win) or at Minny (knocking Minny down below PSU) would do the trick. As long as they don’t pee the bed in the 6/11 game.

Michigan has been scaring me for a while. While they have no 1-25 RPI wins, they’re good (3-2) in the 25-50 range and solid (5-3) in the 50-100 range. Compare that to us (1-5 vs. 1-25, 2-2 vs. 25-50, 4-6 vs. 50-100). Their resume is similar. We talk about how we came close @Purdue and @OSU. Well, Michigan lost by one possession basically vs. Kansas and Syracuse. OH and they beat Clemson OOC. Not to mention they swept us (somehow). And no, they don’t pass the eyeball test. Those who watch them realize they’re not very good… but they win freaking games somehow.

As far as I see it, MSU is gonna get the benefit of the doubt. Minny is tanking (we NEED to win). Illinois is ahead of us, whether or not they should be. Their losses are almost as bad as ours (UIC, us ( ;D),Indiana, NW), though I think their key wins are better (UNC, Gonzaga, Wiscy, MD(!)). And UM is the wildcard that could doom us.

[quote=“djones, post:7, topic:1981”]mhenry:

  1. Jerry has nothing to do with RPIForecast. His site is collegerpi.com.
  2. Jerry’s bracket is not a prediction. He enters this directly below it… This projection is based on the assumption that today is Selection Sunday. No attempt has been made to predict future results. He believes Michigan would be selected were the season to end today.
  3. The RPI is merely one factor taken into consideration.
  4. A 65 RPI is hardly a deal-breaker. Teams in the 70s have been granted at-large bids. And that was before a 68-team field.
  5. Jerry was my partner at the day-and-a-half-long 2009 bracket seminar run by the NCAA in Indianapolis. I may have mentioned here before that Jerry several times during the proceedings – as diplomatically as humanly possible – corrected Dave Worlock and Greg Shaheen on their math. The man is not only brilliant but a very nice guy. And I assure you, Dave and Greg respect no one more than Jerry. Nobody is in his realm in knowledge of this process including Lunardi and the rest of them.
  6. So, I would submit, if Jerry says Michigan is “in” as of now, it’s a better guess than anyone else on this planet could make.[/quote]

He’s assuming Michigan wins at Minny and we lose at Minny. If that happens, Michigan and PSU are both 8-10. Yes, if that happens he’s probably correct. But if we win at Minny or we both lose at Minny, no he’s not correct. 7-11 for UM not going to make it, and if we’re 9-9 and they’re 8-10, they make it over us? Doubt it.

[quote=“Joz, post:10, topic:1981”]Michigan has been scaring me for a while. While they have no 1-25 RPI wins, they’re good (3-2) in the 25-50 range and solid (5-3) in the 50-100 range. Compare that to us (1-5 vs. 1-25, 2-2 vs. 25-50, 4-6 vs. 50-100). Their resume is similar. We talk about how we came close @Purdue and @OSU. Well, Michigan lost by one possession basically vs. Kansas and Syracuse. OH and they beat Clemson OOC. Not to mention they swept us (somehow). And no, they don’t pass the eyeball test. Those who watch them realize they’re not very good… but they win freaking games somehow.

As far as I see it, MSU is gonna get the benefit of the doubt. Minny is tanking (we NEED to win). Illinois is ahead of us, whether or not they should be. Their losses are almost as bad as ours (UIC, us ( ;D),Indiana, NW), though I think their key wins are better (UNC, Gonzaga, Wiscy, MD(!)). And UM is the wildcard that could doom us.[/quote]

I think UM passes the eyeball test. There’s nobody in their offense who isn’t involved. Morris is great, Hardaway has really come on(won 2nd frosh of the week in consecutive weeks), they have shooters in Novak and Douglass, and Morgan is good inside, and Smotrycz is decent. If they’re not shooting well, they get beat, but if they’re close, they can score in a hurry. They can be beaten by a team that plays big. Unfortunately, we don’t play big, unless it’s vs. NW. They should lose tonight, but I wouldn’t bet on it. They’re 4 1/2 pt. underdogs. With the points, a good bet, IMO. If we can beat Wisky at home, so can they.

[quote="djones, post:7, topic:1981"]mhenry:
  1. Jerry has nothing to do with RPIForecast. His site is collegerpi.com.
  2. Jerry’s bracket is not a prediction. He enters this directly below it… This projection is based on the assumption that today is Selection Sunday. No attempt has been made to predict future results. He believes Michigan would be selected were the season to end today.
  3. The RPI is merely one factor taken into consideration.
  4. A 65 RPI is hardly a deal-breaker. Teams in the 70s have been granted at-large bids. And that was before a 68-team field.
  5. Jerry was my partner at the day-and-a-half-long 2009 bracket seminar run by the NCAA in Indianapolis. I may have mentioned here before that Jerry several times during the proceedings – as diplomatically as humanly possible – corrected Dave Worlock and Greg Shaheen on their math. The man is not only brilliant but a very nice guy. And I assure you, Dave and Greg respect no one more than Jerry. Nobody is in his realm in knowledge of this process including Lunardi and the rest of them.
  6. So, I would submit, if Jerry says Michigan is “in” as of now, it’s a better guess than anyone else on this planet could make.[/quote]

He’s assuming Michigan wins at Minny and we lose at Minny. If that happens, Michigan and PSU are both 8-10. Yes, if that happens he’s probably correct. But if we win at Minny or we both lose at Minny, no he’s not correct. 7-11 for UM not going to make it, and if we’re 9-9 and they’re 8-10, they make it over us? Doubt it.

No he’s not. As Dave says, Palm’s brackets are always “as is”. No future games are predicted.

Larry: Thank you.
Coyote: Read the italics in my post. Jerry’s bracket does not assume or predict ANYTHING about future games. He only assesses what has already happened. I believe it’s the same with Lunardi though I don’t look at his page very often. It’s the only reasonable way to run one of these sites.
Illini: No, I think they need 4 in a row. I know Jerry firmly believes that because I asked him yesterday. They have a ton of losses, nothing on the road and next to nothing out of conference. They need OSU to open some eyes and @MN for the road resume. And @NW would be a bad loss. Right now, they’re not even in the room.

One thing about Michigan: They are on a spiritual uptick and I don’t think you can say that about anyone else in this 5-team clump in the center of the standings. I meant to write this in yesterday’s column but it didn’t really fit anywhere. They clearly are buying what Beilein is selling. They are young and energetic and very into the experience right now. They believe they can beat anyone. Coyote called that WI game; they had it won. I was not surprised, either.

Michigan State is playing a couple of walk-ons with Lucious gone. Roe has bone-on-bone in his knees. Summers is too cool for the scene and thinks he and Lucas should be in the NBA right now. They’re driving Izzo nuts.

Illinois is clearly a mess with Weber benching McCamey and Richardson to start @OS. Davis is the enigma of the league. The only guy who looks like he really wants to play is Tisdale.

Minnesota is in total freefall without Nolen. And they pissed away that MS game which could’ve gotten them well.

And, for that matter, Ohio State is just kinda floating along. I think they’re drained from fighting off the wolves and their two best players are freshmen who’ve never been through this grind before.

I think that 4 in a row is doable as long as Penn State just takes it a step at a time and rallies around one another. But they’re gonna need a competitive streak from Jones and Jackson I haven’t seen yet. The toughest one could well be @MN. It’ll be Senior Night. They’ll either be in a loose what-the-hell kinda mood if they’re out of it or flat-out desperate and fighting if they’re still in it. I honestly think Ohio State is an easier game to win.

Davey… :wink:

You going to Happy Valley to cover the OSU game? I hope so. I can’t wait to read your post-game after we knock off the bucs on Talor’s senior night ;D

We’ll see what Michigan’s painful loss does to their psyche.

Ohio State, Purdue, Wiscy are IN

Iowa, Indiana, NW are OUT

How many does the Big Ten get in the tourney, it is going to be more than three.

Left if Illinois, MSU, Minny, PSU, and Michigan.

PSU beats Minny for a second time in the last 2 weeks and tough to put them in over PSU.

PSU has to beat Minny and NW to be on the bubble.

They than have to beat either Illinois, MSU, Ohio State, Purdue, or Wiscy in the tourney to get another quality win to GUARANTEE being in the tournament. If through some type of upset they end up playing Minny or Michigan again, I don’t think that is the end of the world as if they beat them, you have to put PSU in over either of those teams which is really what PSU is fighting for.

Thanks for the reply dj. Interesting to hear “4 in a row” from the “horse’s mouth” (Palm)

I would think that a win at home vs OSU and at Minny (and of course tonight at NW) plus a competitive loss to a “rounding into form” Michigan State in the 4/5 game would be enough.

BTW, I pretty much agree on your assessments of all the other teams in the conference. For all the guff I give Michigan and Beilein, you can’t deny their rise in the conference. Just missing a game winning three at Illinois, followed by a heartbreaker last night to Wisconsin, they could easily be cemented into the Dance had those two shots gone the other way. Then again you could say that about JuJuan Johnson’s shot vs PSU (or Ted Hillary’s call).

I’ve given up trying to figure out the Illini. I sort of saw this early in the season as the only true point guard they had on that roster was McCamey. And as he goes, the Illini go. Interesting that they inserted little-used Crandall Head (Luther Jr.) in his place to start both halves the other night at OSU. And he actually looked pretty good on the offensive end to start the 2nd half as the Illini went on a spurt. But like i said in another thread, Bruce Weber’s mixing up his lineup is sort of akin to rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. They’re just fortunate to have the two doormats coming to Champaign, though sandwiched around a trip to West Lafayette (ouch).

Question…if PSU were able to replace, let’s say, a home game vs Purdue and a roadie at Michigan with a 2nd Iowa and Indiana game and finish at 11-7 instead of what I feel will be 9-9, would they get in? The answer I believe would be undeniably yes. So why then at 9-9 with the toughest in-conference schedule is PSU penalized for playing that schedule (not to mention having a chance to win at both OSU and Purdue with under 20 seconds to play in both games…oh and I didn’t mention being without Brooks for the “better” part of three games, in which they went 0-3). After it all shakes out, is Minnesota or Michigan (should they lose at Minny and to MSU) more worthy with easier schedules, yet lesser records?

[quote=“NittanyIllini, post:17, topic:1981”]Thanks for the reply dj. Interesting to hear “4 in a row” from the “horse’s mouth” (Palm)

I would think that a win at home vs OSU and at Minny (and of course tonight at NW) plus a competitive loss to a “rounding into form” Michigan State in the 4/5 game would be enough.

BTW, I pretty much agree on your assessments of all the other teams in the conference. For all the guff I give Michigan and Beilein, you can’t deny their rise in the conference. Just missing a game winning three at Illinois, followed by a heartbreaker last night to Wisconsin, they could easily be cemented into the Dance had those two shots gone the other way. Then again you could say that about JuJuan Johnson’s shot vs PSU (or Ted Hillary’s call).

I’ve given up trying to figure out the Illini. I sort of saw this early in the season as the only true point guard they had on that roster was McCamey. And as he goes, the Illini go. Interesting that they inserted little-used Crandall Head (Luther Jr.) in his place to start both halves the other night at OSU. And he actually looked pretty good on the offensive end to start the 2nd half as the Illini went on a spurt. But like i said in another thread, Bruce Weber’s mixing up his lineup is sort of akin to rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. They’re just fortunate to have the two doormats coming to Champaign, though sandwiched around a trip to West Lafayette (ouch).

Question…if PSU were able to replace, let’s say, a home game vs Purdue and a roadie at Michigan with a 2nd Iowa and Indiana game and finish at 11-7 instead of what I feel will be 9-9, would they get in? The answer I believe would be undeniably yes. So why then at 9-9 with the toughest in-conference schedule is PSU penalized for playing that schedule (not to mention having a chance to win at both OSU and Purdue with under 20 seconds to play in both games…oh and I didn’t mention being without Brooks for the “better” part of three games, in which they went 0-3). After it all shakes out, is Minnesota or Michigan (should they lose at Minny and to MSU) more worthy with easier schedules, yet lesser records?[/quote]

That’s the second time you’ve used that reference this week.

I’m going to guess that you are in a management postition, and do a lot of Powerpoint presentations.

[quote="NittanyIllini, post:17, topic:1981"]Thanks for the reply dj. Interesting to hear "4 in a row" from the "horse's mouth" (Palm)

I would think that a win at home vs OSU and at Minny (and of course tonight at NW) plus a competitive loss to a “rounding into form” Michigan State in the 4/5 game would be enough.

BTW, I pretty much agree on your assessments of all the other teams in the conference. For all the guff I give Michigan and Beilein, you can’t deny their rise in the conference. Just missing a game winning three at Illinois, followed by a heartbreaker last night to Wisconsin, they could easily be cemented into the Dance had those two shots gone the other way. Then again you could say that about JuJuan Johnson’s shot vs PSU (or Ted Hillary’s call).

I’ve given up trying to figure out the Illini. I sort of saw this early in the season as the only true point guard they had on that roster was McCamey. And as he goes, the Illini go. Interesting that they inserted little-used Crandall Head (Luther Jr.) in his place to start both halves the other night at OSU. And he actually looked pretty good on the offensive end to start the 2nd half as the Illini went on a spurt. But like i said in another thread, Bruce Weber’s mixing up his lineup is sort of akin to rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. They’re just fortunate to have the two doormats coming to Champaign, though sandwiched around a trip to West Lafayette (ouch).

Question…if PSU were able to replace, let’s say, a home game vs Purdue and a roadie at Michigan with a 2nd Iowa and Indiana game and finish at 11-7 instead of what I feel will be 9-9, would they get in? The answer I believe would be undeniably yes. So why then at 9-9 with the toughest in-conference schedule is PSU penalized for playing that schedule (not to mention having a chance to win at both OSU and Purdue with under 20 seconds to play in both games…oh and I didn’t mention being without Brooks for the “better” part of three games, in which they went 0-3). After it all shakes out, is Minnesota or Michigan (should they lose at Minny and to MSU) more worthy with easier schedules, yet lesser records?[/quote]

That’s the second time you’ve used that reference this week.

I’m going to guess that you are in a management postition, and do a lot of Powerpoint presentations.

Skeeza,

Please go back to the beginning of that “Titanic” sentence.

Thanks.

TEAM CONF OVERALL
Ohio State 13-2 26-2
Purdue 12-3 23-5
Wisconsin 11-4 21-6
MSU 8-7 16-11
Illinois 7-8 17-11
Penn State 7-8 14-12
Michigan 7-9 17-12
Minnesota 6-9 17-10
NW 6-9 16-10
Iowa 3-12 10-17
Indiana 3-12 12-16

Remaining Schedule
Michigan vs Minny and MSU
Minny vs Michgan, NW, PSU
Illinois vs Iowa, Purdue, Indiana

So if PSU beats Minny (and NW), Minny ends up with a losing Big Ten record and two losses to PSU, so I can’t see them getting in over PSU.
Illinois most likely will be 9-9 but if they throw out a stink bomb could end up 8-10 and if they get bounced early in the Big Ten tourney could be in jeopardy.
And if Michigan loses to Minny, they have a losing record in the conference also which would mean having to make a Big Ten Tourney run to get in (and if they lose to MSU and Minny, they are don)

So assuming PSU beats Minny; and MSU is in the tourney because Izzo is good and they have a history; that leaves PSU and Illinois and Michigan (let’s assume they win both) battling for the 5th spot and maybe a 6th spot? Under this scenario, whichever one of these teams gest to the semi-finals (ie…wins in the round of 8) and essentially pulls the upset against the higher ranked team, will be the team that has to be VERY CONFIDENT that they are that 5th team. And if two teams pull off the upset, I think that means the Big Ten gets 6 teams in the dance.