[quote=“BobK, post:14, topic:337”]I think that lost in all this discussion is the simple fact that PSU has to shoot better. PSU’s D as measured by points-per-possession is a pretty respectable 0.99 right now. This won’t be sustained all year since the difficulty of the opposition will go up, but it’s still better than last year’s 1.04, which in turn was PSU’s best showing of at least the last 12 years. And that 0.99 is pulled up quite a bit by the lights-out 1.19 that UNC-Wilmington posted by making 62.5% of their 3’s and 55% of their 2’s.
On the offensive side, PSU’s average is 1.05 over the first 5 games, but has fallen each game: 1.24 - 1.09 - 1.05 - 0.95 - 0.93 (the D is what imo really won the Davidson game for PSU). PSU has shot below .265 from 3-point land for 3 games n a row, though they at least shot 2’s reasonably well (.471) against Davidson.
As far as rebounding goes, PSU’s offensive rebounding percentage so far this season (.337) has so far actually been a bit higher than the average over the past couple of years, though again tougher opposition will bring that number down. And the defensive rebounding number (.728) would be the best in at least the past 12 years.
So I would argue (granted, from a statistical rather than “eyeballs” approach) that PSU’s shooting going cold during the tournament was the biggest factor in their poor showing.[/quote]
Yes, but why are they shooting poorer? I would argue because the ball is not getting passed into the post, so the D isn’t collapsing, so the players at the arc are not getting good arc shots, and we’re not getting inside shots. Where do the stats point that out? That’s the problem with stats. They tell you what the result was, not what caused it. Plus, because we’re not trying to score inside, we’re not in a position to get offensive rebounds. Where do the stats point that out?
So, you may be saying “shoot better”. I’m saying, “if you want to shoot better, work the ball inside.” Need to ask why they shot poorer, other than an off night. I think it’s more than an off night, and as you point out, it was the whole tourney. So, I say it’s structural, not shooting coldness. Stats tell you there’s a problem, but do not provide the solution.
In downloading the 3 games from bigtennetwork.com, Penn, RMU and SRU, the games are saved and can be reviewed without charge, and I was looking at the Penn game last night. It’s almost unreal how poor the offensive post attempts are. In looking to go inside, it doesn’t matter who’s trying it, the post player is just not establishing himself(s) properly to get a pass. As a player with the ball, in most cases, Battle, there is no way to make the pass. The player posting up has just not sealed off his cover and it’s very likely any pass will be stolen, or knocked away. The stats just don’t tell you that. For anybody who streamed those games, check it out. It’s terrible, and I think has led to frustration on Battle’s and Frazier’s parts to either launch 3’s or take desperate drives. What are the alternatives if you can’t get the ball inside safely? IMO, the alternatives are what we’ve seen. My solution? Play Sasa, unless Edwards can do it, or Brooks starts doing it more. None of that is in the stats. Eyeballs win this one.
The two biggest players on Davidson, Cohen and Rossiter are both shooting 56%. Andrew is at 40%(12-30). You think those are post shots Andrew’s taking, or maybe 10 footers? Andrew would have to hit 11 straight to get to 56%. Think he’ll do that shooting 10 footers?