Interesting look at the road ahead


#1

I was looking at rpiforecast and trying to figure out what PSU would likely have to do to make the tournament. Let’s be frank though, I think this is a NIT year barring some major growth and very quickly. But again, I sort of expected a rebuild year for a chance at a great season again next year. Ok, rpiforecast predicts PSU would have to win 21 games to make the tournament. (this would give them an estimated final RPI of 45) That means winning the last two OOC’s and going 13-5 in conference!!!

This lead me to pomeroy’s site to see what his calculated chances of winning are in the BT tilts. The following game are MUST win games:

71% H Indiana
68% H Michigan
47% @ Iowa
31% @ Michigan
34% H Northwestern
25% H Illinois

-I dont think I would completely rule out PSU winning these contests. But here is where it gets really scary as they must win the following:

24% H Wisconsin
17% H Michigan State
12% @ Northwestern
11% H Minnesota
9% @ Illinois

-Thats big time hoops to pull off this feat. Lastly and what would strike fear in to any team in the country is that the three (percentage wise) games of which they would have to win two are:

8% @ Wisconsin
8% H Ohio State
8% H Purdue

The games I figured are above and beyond any type of hope are:

5% @ Michigan State
3% @ Minnesota
2% @ Purdue
2% @ Ohio State

Although I think the @ Minnesota at only 3% is a stretch. I cant say I expect a win, but this game is nowhere near the difficulty of the other 3.

-So, the road ahead is a long one and it is filled with land mines. All I can say is that I love watching this team…BRING 'EM ON!


#2

I’m just worried about Gardner Webb, frankly. You guys still worrying about making the tournament this season are getting waaaaay ahead of yourselves…


#3

[quote=“mhenry41, post:1, topic:504”] I was looking at rpiforecast and trying to figure out what PSU would likely have to do to make the tournament. Let’s be frank though, I think this is a NIT year barring some major growth and very quickly. But again, I sort of expected a rebuild year for a chance at a great season again next year. Ok, rpiforecast predicts PSU would have to win 21 games to make the tournament. (this would give them an estimated final RPI of 45) That means winning the last two OOC’s and going 13-5 in conference!!!

This lead me to pomeroy’s site to see what his calculated chances of winning are in the BT tilts. The following game are MUST win games:

71% H Indiana
68% H Michigan
47% @ Iowa
31% @ Michigan
34% H Northwestern
25% H Illinois

-I dont think I would completely rule out PSU winning these contests. But here is where it gets really scary as they must win the following:

24% H Wisconsin
17% H Michigan State
12% @ Northwestern
11% H Minnesota
9% @ Illinois

-Thats big time hoops to pull off this feat. Lastly and what would strike fear in to any team in the country is that the three (percentage wise) games of which they would have to win two are:

8% @ Wisconsin
8% H Ohio State
8% H Purdue

The games I figured are above and beyond any type of hope are:

5% @ Michigan State
3% @ Minnesota
2% @ Purdue
2% @ Ohio State

Although I think the @ Minnesota at only 3% is a stretch. I cant say I expect a win, but this game is nowhere near the difficulty of the other 3.

-So, the road ahead is a long one and it is filled with land mines. All I can say is that I love watching this team…BRING 'EM ON![/quote]

I am reading that there are only 2 BigTen teams that this scale gives us better than a 50% chance of winning? Wow! Worse, there appears to be a staggering 10 games that forecast at less than a 88% expectation of losing. Dbl. Wow

While I was never in the group on here that said this team would prove to be better than last seaon ??? I feel confident that we will win several games better than the mere 2 wins this forecasts. At the same time 13-5 appears well beyond our reach.


#4
[quote="mhenry41, post:1, topic:504"]I was looking at rpiforecast and trying to figure out what PSU would likely have to do to make the tournament. Let's be frank though, I think this is a NIT year barring some major growth and very quickly. But again, I sort of expected a rebuild year for a chance at a great season again next year. Ok, rpiforecast predicts PSU would have to win 21 games to make the tournament. (this would give them an estimated final RPI of 45) That means winning the last two OOC's and going [u][b]13-5 in conference[/b][/u]!!!

This lead me to pomeroy’s site to see what his calculated chances of winning are in the BT tilts. The following game are MUST win games:

71% H Indiana
68% H Michigan
47% @ Iowa
31% @ Michigan
34% H Northwestern
25% H Illinois

-I dont think I would completely rule out PSU winning these contests. But here is where it gets really scary as they must win the following:

24% H Wisconsin
17% H Michigan State
12% @ Northwestern
11% H Minnesota
9% @ Illinois

-Thats big time hoops to pull off this feat. Lastly and what would strike fear in to any team in the country is that the three (percentage wise) games of which they would have to win two are:

8% @ Wisconsin
8% H Ohio State
8% H Purdue

The games I figured are above and beyond any type of hope are:

5% @ Michigan State
3% @ Minnesota
2% @ Purdue
2% @ Ohio State

Although I think the @ Minnesota at only 3% is a stretch. I cant say I expect a win, but this game is nowhere near the difficulty of the other 3.

-So, the road ahead is a long one and it is filled with land mines. All I can say is that I love watching this team…BRING 'EM ON![/quote]

I am reading that there are only 2 BigTen teams that this scale gives us better than a 50% chance of winning? Wow! Worse, there appears to be a staggering 10 games that forecast at less than a 88% expectation of losing. Dbl. Wow

While I was never in the group on here that said this team would prove to be better than last seaon ??? I feel confident that we will win several games better than the mere 2 wins this forecasts. At the same time 13-5 appears well beyond our reach.

The methodology doesn’t forecast two wins it forecasts about four (3.9 to be more exact).


#5

I don’t think this year was ever going to be about how far we get into the postseason; frankly I don’t think success will be measured in W-L records, but rather developing the guys that need to step up in order to make a tourney run next season. As a program we’re not at the level where every year is a good year or even an over .500 year. Maybe these next two seasons could be a springboard towards that, and I really hope it is, but I think a couple of wins in the NIT would be a big achievement for this years team. Next year–NCAAs or bust.


#6
[quote="Craftsy21, post:2, topic:504"]I'm just worried about Gardner Webb, frankly. You guys still worrying about making the tournament this season are getting waaaaay ahead of yourselves....[/quote]

I don’t think this year was ever going to be about how far we get into the postseason; frankly I don’t think success will be measured in W-L records, but rather developing the guys that need to step up in order to make a tourney run next season. As a program we’re not at the level where every year is a good year or even an over .500 year. Maybe these next two seasons could be a springboard towards that, and I really hope it is, but I think a couple of wins in the NIT would be a big achievement for this years team. Next year–NCAAs or bust.


Babb, you hit the nail on the head.

#7

I’m thinking that the only way we make the tourney this year is to win the Big Ten tourney. Certainly pie in the sky but less so than trying to go 13-5 in conference play.


#8
[quote="Craftsy21, post:2, topic:504"]I'm just worried about Gardner Webb, frankly. You guys still worrying about making the tournament this season are getting waaaaay ahead of yourselves....[/quote]

I don’t think this year was ever going to be about how far we get into the postseason; frankly I don’t think success will be measured in W-L records, but rather developing the guys that need to step up in order to make a tourney run next season. As a program we’re not at the level where every year is a good year or even an over .500 year. Maybe these next two seasons could be a springboard towards that, and I really hope it is, but I think a couple of wins in the NIT would be a big achievement for this years team. Next year–NCAAs or bust.

Honestly, I’m not even thinking the NIT is in our sights this season. 8-4…OOC play and probably 6 wins in conference. Will 14 wins get you an NIT bid?


#9

Thanks for the breakdown mhenry.

The notion of the guys only winning 2-4 games is laughable in my mind. Out of nine home games I expect them to win at least 5 of them (Indiana, Mich, Minn, Northwestern, Ill or Wisc) and then maybe we can steal one from (Ill or Wisc, OSU, Purdue, and MSU).

Additionally, I think we can win maybe steal two games on the road.

Sure we’ll get blown out a couple of times but I really think we’ll be in most games.

I think 6 wins is absolute minimum and I expect the number to be 7 or 8 conference wins (NIT bubble time…wooohoooo!!!)


#10

Craftsy, Im not sure I’d lump myself or this post in to the “worrying about getting in to the tournament” category. I was simply posting this to show what road there is ahead and to show how likely/unlikely such an event would be. This is after all a message board and I thought perhaps this was an interesting topic for the masses.


#11

I’m with you mhenry. I didn’t see this thread as a “what PSU needs to do to make the tourney” thread.

With that said, I think PSU has unfortunately made its bed already. They needed to go 10-2 in non-conf with those losses coming against South Carolina, Miami and/or Temple…not 4 losses that included UNCW and Tulane.

I’ve been saying all along that I feel this team will be better than last year’s team but that the strength of the Big Ten will keep them down record-wise. Just didn’t see those lame losses in Charleston coming for this team.

The Big Ten also didn’t do PSU any favors by giving them only one game against both Iowa and Indiana. Substitute two of Purdue/MSU/OSU with Iowa/Indy and maybe they’ll have a punchers chance in the Big Ten. But their conference schedule is brutal this year.


#12

[quote=“NittanyIllini, post:11, topic:504”]I’m with you mhenry. I didn’t see this thread as a “what PSU needs to do to make the tourney” thread.

With that said, I think PSU has unfortunately made its bed already. They needed to go 10-2 in non-conf with those losses coming against South Carolina, Miami and/or Temple…not 4 losses that included UNCW and Tulane.

I’ve been saying all along that I feel this team will be better than last year’s team but that the strength of the Big Ten will keep them down record-wise. Just didn’t see those lame losses in Charleston coming for this team.

The Big Ten also didn’t do PSU any favors by giving them only one game against both Iowa and Indiana. Substitute two of Purdue/MSU/OSU with Iowa/Indy and maybe they’ll have a punchers chance in the Big Ten. But their conference schedule is brutal this year. [/quote]

Its wild to see just how important the non conference games truly are for a team striving to get to the NCAA’s. Your post reinforced that to me. If PSU did go 10-2 and lost to say SC and Temple…you have to figure that PSU would have a chance to get in at perhaps ten wins in conference. It is simply amazing how much of a difference these games truly make. I think a lot of casual college hoops fans may not understand it because they are looking from the perspective of say the Michigan State,North Carolina, and Dukes of the world. But from that outside looking in perspective, it is absolutely CRUCIAL.


#13
[quote="mhenry41, post:1, topic:504"]I was looking at rpiforecast and trying to figure out what PSU would likely have to do to make the tournament. Let's be frank though, I think this is a NIT year barring some major growth and very quickly. But again, I sort of expected a rebuild year for a chance at a great season again next year. Ok, rpiforecast predicts PSU would have to win 21 games to make the tournament. (this would give them an estimated final RPI of 45) That means winning the last two OOC's and going [u][b]13-5 in conference[/b][/u]!!!

This lead me to pomeroy’s site to see what his calculated chances of winning are in the BT tilts. The following game are MUST win games:

71% H Indiana
68% H Michigan
47% @ Iowa
31% @ Michigan
34% H Northwestern
25% H Illinois

-I dont think I would completely rule out PSU winning these contests. But here is where it gets really scary as they must win the following:

24% H Wisconsin
17% H Michigan State
12% @ Northwestern
11% H Minnesota
9% @ Illinois

-Thats big time hoops to pull off this feat. Lastly and what would strike fear in to any team in the country is that the three (percentage wise) games of which they would have to win two are:

8% @ Wisconsin
8% H Ohio State
8% H Purdue

The games I figured are above and beyond any type of hope are:

5% @ Michigan State
3% @ Minnesota
2% @ Purdue
2% @ Ohio State

Although I think the @ Minnesota at only 3% is a stretch. I cant say I expect a win, but this game is nowhere near the difficulty of the other 3.

-So, the road ahead is a long one and it is filled with land mines. All I can say is that I love watching this team…BRING 'EM ON![/quote]

I am reading that there are only 2 BigTen teams that this scale gives us better than a 50% chance of winning? Wow! Worse, there appears to be a staggering 10 games that forecast at less than a 88% expectation of losing. Dbl. Wow

While I was never in the group on here that said this team would prove to be better than last seaon ??? I feel confident that we will win several games better than the mere 2 wins this forecasts. At the same time 13-5 appears well beyond our reach.

The methodology doesn’t forecast two wins it forecasts about four (3.9 to be more exact).


So it does not require a % above 50% to forecast a better than 50/50 chance of winning? Perhaps you could educate me where 3.9 wins are calculated with the percentages provided in the" Pomeroy chance of winning?" Appreciate it.

#14
[quote="mhenry41, post:1, topic:504"]I was looking at rpiforecast and trying to figure out what PSU would likely have to do to make the tournament. Let's be frank though, I think this is a NIT year barring some major growth and very quickly. But again, I sort of expected a rebuild year for a chance at a great season again next year. Ok, rpiforecast predicts PSU would have to win 21 games to make the tournament. (this would give them an estimated final RPI of 45) That means winning the last two OOC's and going [u][b]13-5 in conference[/b][/u]!!!

This lead me to pomeroy’s site to see what his calculated chances of winning are in the BT tilts. The following game are MUST win games:

71% H Indiana
68% H Michigan
47% @ Iowa
31% @ Michigan
34% H Northwestern
25% H Illinois

-I dont think I would completely rule out PSU winning these contests. But here is where it gets really scary as they must win the following:

24% H Wisconsin
17% H Michigan State
12% @ Northwestern
11% H Minnesota
9% @ Illinois

-Thats big time hoops to pull off this feat. Lastly and what would strike fear in to any team in the country is that the three (percentage wise) games of which they would have to win two are:

8% @ Wisconsin
8% H Ohio State
8% H Purdue

The games I figured are above and beyond any type of hope are:

5% @ Michigan State
3% @ Minnesota
2% @ Purdue
2% @ Ohio State

Although I think the @ Minnesota at only 3% is a stretch. I cant say I expect a win, but this game is nowhere near the difficulty of the other 3.

-So, the road ahead is a long one and it is filled with land mines. All I can say is that I love watching this team…BRING 'EM ON![/quote]

I am reading that there are only 2 BigTen teams that this scale gives us better than a 50% chance of winning? Wow! Worse, there appears to be a staggering 10 games that forecast at less than a 88% expectation of losing. Dbl. Wow

While I was never in the group on here that said this team would prove to be better than last seaon ??? I feel confident that we will win several games better than the mere 2 wins this forecasts. At the same time 13-5 appears well beyond our reach.

The methodology doesn’t forecast two wins it forecasts about four (3.9 to be more exact).


So it does not require a % above 50% to forecast a better than 50/50 chance of winning? Perhaps you could educate me where 3.9 wins are calculated with the percentages provided in the" Pomeroy chance of winning?" Appreciate it.

Suppose I have a coin that is weighted on one side, so much so that it lands heads twice as often as it lands tails. What chance does it have of landing tails if I flip it once? Ans: a 33% chance.

Now suppose I tell you that I am going to flip the coin 18 times. How many times do you think it will turn up tails? I suspect that you are going to say 6. You get the answer of six by adding up the probabilities of each of the coin flips. Add up 33% eighteen times and you get six. And you get six despite the fact that the odds were 2:1 against it coming up tails in any one flip.

So just think of each of our games as a weighted coin flip. Pomeroy has told you what the percentage chance of win is in each of those games. So if you want to know how many wins you can expect Penn State to have, add up the percentages for all of the games. Ans: 3.9. So according to Pomeroy, you can expect us to win almost four games despite only being favored in two.


#15

Thanks for the interpretation. That said my first paragraph, I believe is still accruate:

am reading that there are only 2 BigTen teams that this scale gives us better than a 50% chance of winning? Wow! Worse, there appears to be a staggering 10 games that forecast at less than (or better than depending on your viewpoint) a 88% expectation of losing. Dbl. Wow.
In other words if you are forecasted at a 49% percent to win your next 10 games then odds are you will win 4.9% of your 10 games. On a cumulative basis my second paragraph was erroneous but regardless, on an individual game by game basis we are only forecasted to win 2 games. If that interpretaion is correct I think I got it.

#16

[quote=“Duff, post:15, topic:504”]Thanks for the interpretation. That said my first paragraph, I believe is still accruate:

In other words if you are forecasted at a 49% percent to win your next 10 games then odds are you will win 4.9% of your 10 games.
On a cumulative basis my second paragraph was erroneous but regardless, on an individual game by game basis we are only forecasted to win 2 games.
If that interpretaion is correct I think I got it.[/quote]

4.9 games, not 4.9%


#17

[quote=“Duff, post:15, topic:504”]Thanks for the interpretation. That said my first paragraph, I believe is still accruate:

In other words if you are forecasted at a 49% percent to win your next 10 games then odds are you will win 4.9% of your 10 games.
On a cumulative basis my second paragraph was erroneous but regardless, on an individual game by game basis we are only forecasted to win 2 games.
If that interpretaion is correct I think I got it.[/quote]

I think this is what you meant to say in your first sentence above.

In other words if you are forecasted at a 49% percent to win each of your next 10 games then odds are you will win 4.9% 4.9 games of your 10 games.

In which case I’d sort of agree (technically, since you can’t win tenths of games, the odds are that you will win 5 games).

However, I still have to disagree with your conclusion about your original statement. If your original statement were true, in my coin flip scenario, you would have to be comfortable in saying that the coin is “forecasted” to never come up tails. However, I doubt you would say that.

You can say we are only “favored” to win two games, but you shouldn’t be saying we are “forecasted” to win two games. There is a difference.

I bring that up because you discounted Pomeroy’s prediction methodology because you thought he was saying that we would go 2-16 in the Big Ten. In your very own words you said “I am comfortable that we will win several games better than the mere two wins this forecasts”. You should be. Pomeroy is comfortable that we’ll win more than two too.

But how comfortable are you that we will win more than four games? You may still be comfortable, but certainly not as comfortable.

BTW. RPIForecasts.com does something similar using Sagarin’s numbers.

Here’s his predictions for our Big Ten season.

Minnesota (27.4) B10 A 0-0 5% Wisconsin (46.5) B10 H 0-0 30% Michigan (172.1) B10 H 0-0 64% Illinois (62.1) B10 A 0-0 13% Iowa (208.5) B10 A 0-0 47% Indiana (196.7) B10 H 0-0 68% Wisconsin (46.5) B10 A 0-0 12% Illinois (62.1) B10 H 0-0 32% Purdue (12.5) B10 A 0-0 5% Ohio St. (33.4) B10 A 0-0 5% Minnesota (27.4) B10 H 0-0 16% Michigan St. (41.8) B10 H 0-0 25% Northwestern (93.4) B10 A 0-0 20% Michigan (172.1) B10 A 0-0 38% Ohio St. (33.4) B10 H 0-0 17% Northwestern (93.4) B10 H 0-0 43% Michigan St. (41.8) B10 A 0-0 9% Purdue (12.5) B10 H 0-0 16%

Like Pomeroy, he has us favored in only two games (the last column is his individual game odds) but his expected conference record is 5-13 (summing the individual games gets you to 4.65 wins).

Let me make another analogy. Suppose you asked me “What games do you think the Pittsburgh Pirates will be favored in next season?” I’d be very comfortable with saying “I don’t see them being favored in any game”. And I wouldn’t have a problem with you telling people that. On the other hand, if you went around and said “UncleLar forecasts the Pirates to go winless next year”, I’d have a problem with that. See the difference?


#18

Well Lar, if a team is ever going to go 0-162…


#19
[quote="UncleLar, post:17, topic:504"]On the other hand, if you went around and said "UncleLar forecasts the Pirates to go winless next year", I'd have a problem with that. See the difference?[/quote]

Well Lar, if a team is ever going to go 0-162…

…it would be the Washington Nationals :wink:


#20
[quote="UncleLar, post:17, topic:504"]On the other hand, if you went around and said "UncleLar forecasts the Pirates to go winless next year", I'd have a problem with that. See the difference?[/quote]

Well Lar, if a team is ever going to go 0-162…

…it would be the Washington Nationals :wink:

…or the Washington Generals