Here’s a good article from Scout.com
They compared all the first round NFL draft picks as to the star rating they had coming out of high school or JuCo. Here is what they have:
In a given year, 2,500 players will sign football scholarships to Division 1 programs. The star allocations for those players:
The breakdown for the first round of the 2011 NFL Draft.
Star 1st Round Picks
Odds of becoming a 1st round pick in the 2011 NFL Draft
Star Odds of 1st Rnd
I don’t know how some will read this.
Are the ratings crap because only 10% of 5 star players are first rounders?
Are the ratings useless because there are just as many 2 star, and almost twice as many 3 star players drafed in the first round as there are 5-star players?
Are the ratings justified because the odds point to the probabilites working out in favor of the 5-star prospects?