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Grading the star-ratings for football


#1

Here’s a good article from Scout.com

They compared all the first round NFL draft picks as to the star rating they had coming out of high school or JuCo. Here is what they have:

NFL Draft Recap - Do Stars Matter?

In a given year, 2,500 players will sign football scholarships to Division 1 programs. The star allocations for those players:

Star Players
5 50
4 250
3 1000
2 1200

The breakdown for the first round of the 2011 NFL Draft.

Star 1st Round Picks
5 5
4 13
3 9
2 5

Odds of becoming a 1st round pick in the 2011 NFL Draft

Star Odds of 1st Rnd
5 10-1
4 20-1
3 111-1
2 240-1

I don’t know how some will read this.

  • Are the ratings crap because only 10% of 5 star players are first rounders?

  • Are the ratings useless because there are just as many 2 star, and almost twice as many 3 star players drafed in the first round as there are 5-star players?

  • Are the ratings justified because the odds point to the probabilites working out in favor of the 5-star prospects?


#2

[quote=“Skeeza, post:1, topic:2366”]Here’s a good article from Scout.com

They compared all the first round NFL draft picks as to the star rating they had coming out of high school or JuCo. Here is what they have:

NFL Draft Recap - Do Stars Matter?

I don’t know how some will read this.

  • Are the ratings crap because only 10% of 5 star players are first rounders?

  • Are the ratings useless because there are just as many 2 star, and almost twice as many 3 star players drafed in the first round as there are 5-star players?

  • Are the ratings justified because the odds point to the probabilites working out in favor of the 5-star prospects?[/quote]

I’d say they are justified. There are as many 2 star players drafted as 5 star players. But there are 24 times as many 2 star players as one star to get drafted. The odds show all we need to know.

I’d be more interested in numbers that show how many of each play in the NFL, start in the NFL and have long NFL careers.


#3

I think that’s how I see it: five stars doesn’t guarantee success, two stars doesn’t prevent it. But on the whole, you’d probably want to try your luck with five star players over two.

I think they should do it for all rounds, and maybe for all opening day rosters. That’s the real test: who made it and who didn’t. Some of those first rounders won’t, some of the seventh rounders and free agents will.


#4

My conclusion is that “HS Star Rating” has become a pretty big business.