PennStateHoops.com Discussion Forum

Eyeballs-Stats general thread

I would welcome at this point a study of correlation between “bad body language” and poor performance.

He used KenPom final as the metric, because I guess he had to pick one as the standard.

Penn State: Final KenPom rank 43

  Mas FSH DII DOK Sag Kenpom YAG PGH PIG BWE RTP BPI TRank MOR Hess Comp Gasa Norlander
Final Rank 18 20 28 57 64 32 28 48 15 56 37 49 50 8 50 35 46 164
KenPom error 25 23 15 14 21 11 15 5 28 13 6 6 7 35 7 8 3 121
All teams MAE 47.39 42.98 47.01 47.72 42.07 41.03 43.47 48.11 50.66 49.82 51.01 43.54 40.31 49.12 41.97 42.16 40.40 45.16

Legend

Abbrev Name Analytics/Eyeballs
MAS Massey Analytics
FSH ERFunction Ratings Analytics
DII Donchess Inference Analytics
DOK Doktor Entropy Analytics
Sag Sagarin Analytics
Kenpom Pomeroy Analytics
YAG Yale USAG Analytics
PGH Pugh Analytics
PIG Pigskin Analytics
BWE B Wilson Empirical Analytics
RTP RT Power Analytics
BPI ESPN BPI Analytics
TRank T-Rank Analytics
MOR Moore Analytics
Hess ? ?
Comp Composite Both
Gasa John Gasaway / ESPN Eyeballs
Norlander Matt Norlander / CBS Eyeballs

Same numbers, ranked by Mean Absolute Error in Ranking

Name Analytics/Eyeballs Mean Absolute Error
T-Rank Analytics 40.31
John Gasaway / ESPN Eyeballs 40.40
Pomeroy Analytics 41.03
Hess ? 41.97
Sagarin Analytics 42.07
Composite Both 42.16
ERFunction Ratings Analytics 42.98
Yale USAG Analytics 43.47
ESPN BPI Analytics 43.54
Matt Norlander / CBS Eyeballs 45.16
Donchess Inference Analytics 47.01
Massey Analytics 47.39
Doktor Entropy Analytics 47.72
Pugh Analytics 48.11
Moore Analytics 49.12
B Wilson Empirical Analytics 49.82
Pigskin Analytics 50.66
RT Power Analytics 51.01

To many people’s question, here’s a subset ranked by predictive accuracy:

System Predictive Accuracy*
TeamRankings Pred 71.7
ESPN BPI 71.1
Pomeroy 71.1
Lefevre 71
Sagarin 71
T-Rank 70.9
Dokter Entropy 70.8
Donchess Inference 70.5
Yale USAG 70.4
Massey 70.2
Pigskin 70.1
B Wilson Empirical 69.9
Moore 69.8
Zamstat 69.1
Pugh 68.9
RT Power 67.9

* “Since the rankings used for this analysis are only updated once a week and do not take into account home court advantage and other factors that ranking systems may adjust for, this analysis is not fully representative of the included systems’ accuracies.”

MAEs of 40+ seem relatively large with a range of 353. Would be interested in the opinions of professional statisticians or other knowledgeable practitioners.