I would welcome at this point a study of correlation between “bad body language” and poor performance.
He used KenPom final as the metric, because I guess he had to pick one as the standard.
Penn State: Final KenPom rank 43
|All teams MAE||47.39||42.98||47.01||47.72||42.07||41.03||43.47||48.11||50.66||49.82||51.01||43.54||40.31||49.12||41.97||42.16||40.40||45.16|
|BWE||B Wilson Empirical||Analytics|
|Gasa||John Gasaway / ESPN||Eyeballs|
|Norlander||Matt Norlander / CBS||Eyeballs|
Same numbers, ranked by Mean Absolute Error in Ranking
|Name||Analytics/Eyeballs||Mean Absolute Error|
|John Gasaway / ESPN||Eyeballs||40.40|
|Matt Norlander / CBS||Eyeballs||45.16|
|B Wilson Empirical||Analytics||49.82|
To many people’s question, here’s a subset ranked by predictive accuracy:
|B Wilson Empirical||69.9|
* “Since the rankings used for this analysis are only updated once a week and do not take into account home court advantage and other factors that ranking systems may adjust for, this analysis is not fully representative of the included systems’ accuracies.”
MAEs of 40+ seem relatively large with a range of 353. Would be interested in the opinions of professional statisticians or other knowledgeable practitioners.
Great podcast that I was not aware of: Wharton Moneyball.
In this episode, Todd Golden of USF. His interview starts at about 59 minutes..
He said USF has five areas of emphasis in-game this season.
- Winning transition battle
- Scoring more than other teams in first 10 seconds of the shot clock. Plenty of data shows that you get a better shot, probably because the defense isn’t set.
- Shot selection: “Last night against Sonoma State, we took 73 shots over the course of the night. Only one of those shots came outside the paint and inside the three-point line. So that was something that was really, really good.”
- Winning rebounding and turnover
- Getting to the line more than the other team
(Interviewers said Princeton wants 95% threshold - only 5% of shots outside the paint or inside the three-point line.)