Does experience track to winning?


#1

Interesting charts that I ran across on StatSheet.com. They track winning percentage vs class experience in the Big Ten. The Avg Class per Minute is calculated by summing the minutes each player plays then multiplying it by their class year (Freshmen = 1, Sophomore = 2, Junior = 3, and Senior = 4) dividing it by the total team minutes. The least experienced teams are to the left, the more experienced to the right. In general, winning percentage does seem to track pretty closely with team experience with Penn State and Michigan State seemingly the two biggest anomalies on the chart. Hopefully we get back in line with the graph next year because we’ll have a pretty experienced team.


#2

Correlation does not prove causation!

Just kidding, this is interesting stuff. I’m not sure I totally understand the rationale behind multiplying minutes by an integer class year. I would get plotting cumulative career minutes a little better


#3

Having good players tracks to winning much better.
For the last 25 years Northwestern and PSU have had their share of experienced players BUT often seem to end up at the bottom of the league!
I have also seen teams return much/or all of their players from a losing team and STILL have a losing team.

Bottom line is PSU is not going to win BigTen games with math tricks. Math tricks might get Ed another extension, though! Worked before.


#4

[quote=“tundra, post:3, topic:770”]Having good players tracks to winning much better.
For the last 25 years Northwestern and PSU have had their share of experienced players BUT often seem to end up at the bottom of the league!
I have also seen teams return much/or all of their players from a losing team and STILL have a losing team.

Bottom line is PSU is not going to win BigTen games with math tricks. Math tricks might get Ed another extension, though! Worked before. [/quote]

Actually, I don’t think that chart helps Ed’s case very much. He is running some kind of extreme outlier


#5
[quote="tundra, post:3, topic:770"]Having good players tracks to winning much better. For the last 25 years Northwestern and PSU have had their share of experienced players BUT often seem to end up at the bottom of the league! I have also seen teams return much/or all of their players from a losing team and STILL have a losing team.

Bottom line is PSU is not going to win BigTen games with math tricks. Math tricks might get Ed another extension, though! Worked before.[/quote]

Actually, I don’t think that chart helps Ed’s case very much. He is running some kind of extreme outlier


Actually DC, I made my post without looking at the chart. Silly, I guess, but I am just so programmed to seeing past stats that try to convince people that Ed’s record is good performance and worthy of extensions. A little bitter, also.

#6
[quote="tundra, post:3, topic:770"]Having good players tracks to winning much better. For the last 25 years Northwestern and PSU have had their share of experienced players BUT often seem to end up at the bottom of the league! I have also seen teams return much/or all of their players from a losing team and STILL have a losing team.

Bottom line is PSU is not going to win BigTen games with math tricks. Math tricks might get Ed another extension, though! Worked before.[/quote]

Actually, I don’t think that chart helps Ed’s case very much. He is running some kind of extreme outlier


Actually DC, I made my post without looking at the chart. Silly, I guess, but I am just so programmed to seeing past stats that try to convince people that Ed’s record is good performance and worthy of extensions. A little bitter, also.

I sensed that! The second chart - does not make Ed and PSU look real good


#7

I am just curios if DJ, Brooks and Jones came from winning HS programs. I would assume somebody has done a study as to if coming from a winning HS program helps a college team (i.e. success breeds success).


#8

[quote=“tundra, post:3, topic:770”]Having good players tracks to winning much better.
For the last 25 years Northwestern and PSU have had their share of experienced players BUT often seem to end up at the bottom of the league!
I have also seen teams return much/or all of their players from a losing team and STILL have a losing team.

Bottom line is PSU is not going to win BigTen games with math tricks. Math tricks might get Ed another extension, though! Worked before. [/quote]

Common sense by the athletic director got him the extension but for some reason his detractors don’t seem to want to acknowledge that. Anybody who follows college basketball knows that you don’t let your coach become a lame duck.


#9
[quote="tundra, post:3, topic:770"]Having good players tracks to winning much better. For the last 25 years Northwestern and PSU have had their share of experienced players BUT often seem to end up at the bottom of the league! I have also seen teams return much/or all of their players from a losing team and STILL have a losing team.

Bottom line is PSU is not going to win BigTen games with math tricks. Math tricks might get Ed another extension, though! Worked before.[/quote]

Common sense by the athletic director got him the extension but for some reason his detractors don’t seem to want to acknowledge that. Anybody who follows college basketball knows that you don’t let your coach become a lame duck.

Lar is 100% right - in fact - Dunn became a lame duck briefly after 2001, and if you need any more proof of why that doesn’t work, look at 2002 and 2003

again, I really think it is silly to discuss Ed DeChellis’ future right now - there are at least 11 games left and we should really be hoping that this team gets over the hump and finishes a game very soon. I don’t know how many of the losses were not winnable, maybe 2


#10

Why isn’t Northwestern a bigger anamoly than Penn State? 9th in per class minute, 6th in winning percentage. PSU is 8th and 10th respectively, MSU, 5th and 1st.


#11

[quote=“tundra, post:3, topic:770”]Having good players tracks to winning much better.
For the last 25 years Northwestern and PSU have had their share of experienced players BUT often seem to end up at the bottom of the league!
I have also seen teams return much/or all of their players from a losing team and STILL have a losing team.

Bottom line is PSU is not going to win BigTen games with math tricks. Math tricks might get Ed another extension, though! Worked before. [/quote]

tundra, you need to calm down. Don’t you realize that Ed’s 4 year rolling average of Big 10 wins keeps going up? :wink: That may take a hit this year but just wait another 4 years when Ed really makes some strides with that number! ;D


#12

Because the relationship that is plotted is between winning percentage and average class minutes, not between the rankings within the conference. NW’s win percentage tracks closer to the class minutes than Penn State’s (or Michigan State’s) does.


#13

Most kids that get D1 scholarships come from winning programs. At a high school level, one D1 scholarship athlete is usually enough to elevate your HS basketball team to a winning record.

For the record, all three of them came from VERY winning programs. DJ played in the PIAA State Championship game. Jones went 25-2 as a senior winning the Philly Friends League championship. Jeff Brooks went 23-7 as a junior, 23-8 as a senior.


#14

I’d be interested in seeing actual minutes logged for a career versus winning percentage. You could have a team full of seniors and juniors who are actually first year starters - meaning their minutes are high but their in-game experience lower thus far than other teams.

Not sure how that’d change things, but it seems like a more relevant number to look at - having a guy like Kalin Lucas or Talor Battle (guys who have played nearly every minute since they arrived on campus) is a lot different than having guys like Jeff Brooks who’s time has varied a great deal here in 2.5 years.


#15

[quote=“Craftsy21, post:14, topic:770”]I’d be interested in seeing actual minutes logged for a career versus winning percentage. You could have a team full of seniors and juniors who are actually first year starters - meaning their minutes are high but their in-game experience lower thus far than other teams.

Not sure how that’d change things, but it seems like a more relevant number to look at - having a guy like Kalin Lucas or Talor Battle (guys who have played nearly every minute since they arrived on campus) is a lot different than having guys like Jeff Brooks who’s time has varied a great deal here in 2.5 years.[/quote]

I agree but unfortunately that’s not what this guy ran with.


#16
[quote="jjepsu92, post:7, topic:770"]I am just curios if DJ, Brooks and Jones came from winning HS programs. I would assume somebody has done a study as to if coming from a winning HS program helps a college team (i.e. success breeds success).[/quote]

Most kids that get D1 scholarships come from winning programs. At a high school level, one D1 scholarship athlete is usually enough to elevate your HS basketball team to a winning record.

For the record, all three of them came from VERY winning programs. DJ played in the PIAA State Championship game. Jones went 25-2 as a senior winning the Philly Friends League championship. Jeff Brooks went 23-7 as a junior, 23-8 as a senior.

23-7, 23-8 not VERY winning in HS. 37-1 for Frazier was winning, losing in state semis, and what Talor and Taran did was winning, two state championship games in a row. Talor’s senior team lost twice to CBA, then beat them in sectionals, then lost in state title game, so maybe 28-3, so his Maginn team lost to only 1 team, which was undefeated and ranked 1st in NYS til loss in sectionals to Maginn. Taran’s team lost zero as a soph, maybe 29-0, and 1 as a junior, maybe 24-1, losing zero both seasons in regular season. I would say Brooks’ HS team record mediocre. Sounds okay, but when Bishop Maginn had that type record, they were 3rd or 4th in their league out of 10 teams(I think CBA, Schenectady and Albany finished ahead), and never made state playoffs. Brooks’ Doss team did nothing in post season if I remember correctly. I bet they weren’t in top 10 in state. When you consider he was playing vs. non-college kids a bunch, not that hot, and he had some funky games, like a handful under 10 points. That record would be decent in hyper competitive league like NYC, Chicago, LA. As KY gets beaten up regularly by Indiana in state vs. state game each year( a game that Jeff Brooks blew off despite being 1st team all state), KY not a basketball power in HS.

Jones had Xavier’s Jason Love on his team, who didn’t redshirt, and is having solid season. Think he had 17 rebounds in win vs. Cincy.


#17

[quote=“Craftsy21, post:14, topic:770”]I’d be interested in seeing actual minutes logged for a career versus winning percentage. You could have a team full of seniors and juniors who are actually first year starters - meaning their minutes are high but their in-game experience lower thus far than other teams.

Not sure how that’d change things, but it seems like a more relevant number to look at - having a guy like Kalin Lucas or Talor Battle (guys who have played nearly every minute since they arrived on campus) is a lot different than having guys like Jeff Brooks who’s time has varied a great deal here in 2.5 years.[/quote]

Perhaps coincidently, perhaps not, Scott/William/Rokk pulled together a list of the career minutes of the top five guys on each Big Ten team on another forum. Here’s those minutes plotted against both overall and conference winning percentages (I normalized all the numbers with the lowest value equal to zero and the highest one, then distributed the other proportionately) in format similar to the above.

Overall Winning Percentage

Conference Winning Percentage


#18

Thanks Lar - he sent those numbers to me in an email, happy to see them plotted.


#19

Lar, are you trying to tell me he gave you of all people permission to use this stuff? ;D