Conference wins


#1

I’m curious to know how people feel this Penn State team will do in conference. I was wildly wrong about this last year (6 or 7 was my guess.) This year I’ll go:

Big Ten record: 8-10

Overall I’ll say 17-15 or so (8-4, 8-10, 1-1), and hopefully NIT bound. RPIforecast.com says there’s only a 15% chance of my guess or better. Most likely estimate there is 14-16 (6-12 in conference.)

We have a ton of potential (recruiting has been so much better of late) that will most likely take another year to gel.


#2

I was going to say 10 or 11 wins so I went with 11. This is a unique team. I believe that they can beat or lose to anyone in the league, however I think they win more than they lose.


#3

5-6

We have a killer schedule and we still don’t have a reliable 2nd or 3rd scoring option.

I still like the potential of this team, but I’m not sure I’ve seen much that’s changed my mind about my concerns going into the season…lack of proven guys. I was really counting on a couple of things that haven’t happened, but surprised by a few things I wasn’t counting on.

I think when we’re on, we’re going to be really good. When we’re off, I think Talor is good enough to keep us in most games.


#4

My head tells me 5 or 6, but Im going to go with a combination of my head and heart and say 7 or 8.


#5

-We went 8-4 against the 315th toughest schedule so far (funny, I thought the schedule was improved?).
-We lost a home game against a bottom-tier power conference team where Battle was unstoppable and scored 32 points.
-No one has stepped up as a consistent offensive threat.
-Leadership?
-This team has made some DUMB plays down the stretch of losses (something we didn’t do last year as we won a bunch of close games)
-We have no balance on offense as we still resort to chucking and ducking.

I do think the potential is there, but I think the program would be better off with reaching that potential for next year as the goal and not winning games this conference season. We just aren’t going anywhere this year. I will be disappointed if the bench is shortened for the BT season.

I’ll say 5-6, but 0-4 is far more likely than 7 or more. I think 7 is the max for this team. Too tough of a schedule. And reading the Roll Call thread for Minnesota, a lot of you are in for a wake up call next week…


#6

[quote=“eric17, post:5, topic:537”]-We went 8-4 against the 315th toughest schedule so far (funny, I thought the schedule was improved?).
-We lost a home game against a bottom-tier power conference team where Battle was unstoppable and scored 32 points.
-No one has stepped up as a consistent offensive threat.
-Leadership?
-This team has made some DUMB plays down the stretch of losses (something we didn’t do last year as we won a bunch of close games)
-We have no balance on offense as we still resort to chucking and ducking.

I do think the potential is there, but I think the program would be better off with reaching that potential for next year as the goal and not winning games this conference season. We just aren’t going anywhere this year. I will be disappointed if the bench is shortened for the BT season.

I’ll say 5-6, but 0-4 is far more likely than 7 or more. I think 7 is the max for this team. Too tough of a schedule. And reading the Roll Call thread for Minnesota, a lot of you are in for a wake up call next week…[/quote]

I couldn’t agree more with your points. I really feel like 0-4 but I’ll go with 5-6 hoping we will get a some teams on off nights and surprise them. I don’t see any post-season for us. Someone else to step-up other than Battle and live up to their supposed “potential”.


#7

Oh, ye of little faith…

Nobody (almost nobody…) predicted 10-8 last year, either. I went with 9-10. 0-4? Really? I would be incredibly disappointed if we only win four Big 10 games this year.


#8

Eric, you bring up a very interesting point regarding how crappy our Non-Conference schedule looks right now. Going into the season I was convinced we had a decent schedule and 2 or 3 non-conference losses along w/ 9 or 10 conference wins would get us into the tourney. Most people will probably point to the Charleston debacle and mention how we missed out on playing Miami and SC. That’s true but Tulane and Davidson aren’t terrible teams to have on the schedule…the really bad ones are Penn, American, UMBC, GW while Bob Morris and Sacred Heart aren’t a whole lot better. Now, last year Ed told us that some teams he thought would be good turned out to be bad and I assume we’ll hear the same thing this year if we win 8 or 9 conference games and end up in the NIT. Is it really that difficult to put together a non-conference schedule that doesn’t include a bunch of really bad teams…maybe the answer is yes b/c as I stated above, I thought Ed had accomplished that this season…oh well, I picked us to win 7 or 8 Big10 games.


#9

How is the program better off not winning this conference season? Are winning this year and reaching goals next year somehow mutually exclusive? I would think winning this year would be good thing… or am I missing something?


#10

I’ll go with 4-5 as the total… I dont see us being anywhere close to where we were last year.


#11
[quote="eric17, post:5, topic:537"]I do think the potential is there, but I think [b]the program would be better off with reaching that potential for next year as the goal and not winning games this conference season[/b]. We just aren't going anywhere this year. I will be disappointed if the bench is shortened for the BT season.[/quote]

How is the program better off not winning this conference season? Are winning this year and reaching goals next year somehow mutually exclusive? I would think winning this year would be good thing… or am I missing something?

We could get a Lottery Pick I guess…


#12
[quote="eric17, post:5, topic:537"]-We went 8-4 against the 315th toughest schedule so far (funny, I thought the schedule was improved?).[/quote]

Eric, you bring up a very interesting point regarding how crappy our Non-Conference schedule looks right now. Going into the season I was convinced we had a decent schedule and 2 or 3 non-conference losses along w/ 9 or 10 conference wins would get us into the tourney. Most people will probably point to the Charleston debacle and mention how we missed out on playing Miami and SC. That’s true but Tulane and Davidson aren’t terrible teams to have on the schedule…the really bad ones are Penn, American, UMBC, GW while Bob Morris and Sacred Heart aren’t a whole lot better. Now, last year Ed told us that some teams he thought would be good turned out to be bad and I assume we’ll hear the same thing this year if we win 8 or 9 conference games and end up in the NIT. Is it really that difficult to put together a non-conference schedule that doesn’t include a bunch of really bad teams…maybe the answer is yes b/c as I stated above, I thought Ed had accomplished that this season…oh well, I picked us to win 7 or 8 Big10 games.

If Ed wants to schedule UMBC, Gardner Webb, Robert Morris, AND Sacred Heart - I have no problem with it. But think PSU needs to balance that out with 1 or 2 teams that are expected to be ranked very high. Virginia Tech doesn’t get the job done, a 315 OOC SOS is pretty bad. PSU might actually have to schedule a single road game that isn’t mandatory, what a sacrifice


#13
[quote="eric17, post:5, topic:537"]I do think the potential is there, but I think [b]the program would be better off with reaching that potential for next year as the goal and not winning games this conference season[/b]. We just aren't going anywhere this year. I will be disappointed if the bench is shortened for the BT season.[/quote]

How is the program better off not winning this conference season? Are winning this year and reaching goals next year somehow mutually exclusive? I would think winning this year would be good thing… or am I missing something?

My guess is that he thinks we should be developing players not shortening the bench. However, given that EVERY player is scheduled to return next year, I’m not sure how not playing some of them makes the team any better for next year. If we were a senior heavy team, then I could see his point, but with the makeup of this team, I sure don’t.


#14

5-6:

1/16 Iowa
1/21 Indiana
2/17 or 2/28 NW
1 of the UM games

Then add 2 more wins that aren’t expected. Maybe Illinois, maybe a first round B10 tourny game. That works out to be around 5 or 6. More likely 5. Too bad they only have Indiana and Iowa once.


#15

5-6 :-\


#16

Not very scientific, but I’ll say 8. Minny did beat Butler, but Butler’s one spot above Temple, so IMO, can be beaten. After Butler victory, Minny lost 3 straight, A&M, Portland and Miami, FL. Illinois another team I think can be be beaten. They are balanced with 5 guys in double digits, including two freshmen, but never been too impressed with McCamey or Tisdale, who are 1 and 3 in Illini scoring. Michigan is suspect.

Edwards will now probably start, and if he had been earlier, maybe different results. Still, I don’t expect any post play, which may help cause losses we shouldn’t get, but we’ll squeak out 8. I also think except for a few away games, e.g., Purdue, we’ll be in every game.

The top 4 ranked Big 10 teams right now? Purdue, MSU, Wisky, Northwestern. When has Northwestern last been in the top 4?


#17

I said 7-8, but I think 6 are more likely than 8.


#18

Imagine if Northwestern still had Coble. Has MSU won a big game all year? I know they played a tough schedule, but they aren’t making the Big 10 look good. For as good as the Big 10 was supposed to be, I’m just not seeing it. Parity? Yes. Though I just don’t think it is a really strong conference, or at least not the best in the country.

I would like to look at each game and mark a W or L instead of just throwing a number out. I don’t have time to do that right now, so I will hold off on voting. Without looking at it more, Noobd’s explanation looks about right. I could see us beating Minny at home as well.


#19

Exactly! I’ve been saying this all year so far and have been receiving negative karma for it. But it is true…


#20

I’m gonna say 7-8. My head says 4, but the TBF (Talor Battle Factor) is good for at least 3 wins that we don’t otherwise deserve.