Chance - by John Gasaway


#1

Chance is Gasaway’s version of Pomeroy’s luck factor - the difference being that Pomeroy looks at the whole season while Pomeroy just looks at conference play.

According to Gasaway, we are the ninth most unfortunate team (ftr - in each of the last two years we have been in the top five of his most fortunate teams.

the unfortunate ten:

  1. Dayton
  2. BYU
  3. Wisconsin
  4. UNLV
  5. Alabama
  6. Portland
  7. SMU
  8. Missouri State
  9. Penn State
  10. West Virginia

His “Breaks of the Game” post


#2

Hard to believe teams like Wisky, BYU, and WVU can be on this kind of list. Also makes you possibly want to consider them for causing some noise in the tournament, since they’ll all be a little underseeded.

/protips


#3

[quote=“UncleLar, post:1, topic:930”]Chance is Gasaway’s version of Pomeroy’s luck factor - the difference being that Pomeroy looks at the whole season while Pomeroy just looks at conference play.

According to Gasaway, we are the ninth most unfortunate team (ftr - in each of the last two years we have been in the top five of his most fortunate teams.

the unfortunate ten:

  1. Dayton
  2. BYU
  3. Wisconsin
  4. UNLV
  5. Alabama
  6. Portland
  7. SMU
  8. Missouri State
  9. Penn State
  10. West Virginia

His “Breaks of the Game” post[/quote]

Not surprised by Dayton leading this list being that all there loses have been by 8 points or less.


#4

Similarly - you may want to consider that Pitt and Vandy (and memphis should they make it) are on the luckiest list of teams, so they should all be a bit overseeded.


#5

Except we were on the other list last year but still made the big run in the NIT. :wink:

I’m guessing there’s just no telling WHEN your run of good fortune is going to end.


#6

Probably right.


#7
Similarly - you may want to consider that Pitt and Vandy (and memphis should they make it) are on the luckiest list of teams, so they should all be a bit overseeded.

Except we were on the other list last year but still made the big run in the NIT. :wink:

I’m guessing there’s just no telling WHEN your run of good fortune is going to end.

Also, I think the expression, “you make your own luck” is appropriate here. Given the experience we had and the “'Melle factor”, I don’t think it was a coincidence that we were lucky all of last year. Likewise, I don’t think it is a coincidence that we are unlucky this year.

In other words, there may be some underlying reasons why teams do or do not have “luck” according to Pomeroy and Gasaway. So, I wouldn’t necessarily bet on that luck changing in the tournament based on the law of averages.