Championship Week


#1

Championship Week (ok, week and a half) gets underway tonight as 3 conferences kick off their conference tournies.

The Horizon tourney doesn’t get too interesting tonight, as they give the top 2 seeds a bye to the semis so the other 8 teams must play two games before they meet them (Butler and Wright St are the top 2 seeds).

The Ohio Valley follows the standard 8 team tourney, with all 8 teams playing tonight. Murray St won the regular season and could be looking at a 13-14 seed if they win it. Morehead St is just a notch below them as the 2 seed (they’d probably be a 14-15 seed), and everyone else in the conference would be looking at a 16 seed.

The Big South also follows the standard 8 team tourney. They only take the top 8 teams, so the Gardner Webb team that we beat didn’t make it here. Coastal Carolina is 26-5 on the season, but they played a really, really weak schedule. Radford/Winthrop both stand a good chance to win this one, however Coastal Carolina wouldn’t have to leave home in this tourney. Coastal Carolina would probably be in line for a 15-16 seed, while everyone else would be looking at a 16.

The Atlantic Sun and Patriot tournies start up tomorrow.


#2

All bubble teams are hoping that Butler, Gonzaga and Old Dominion don’t lose.
UNI is probably bubble IN, but bubble teams should root for them anyway.
Siena would bubble-out. Utah State would too, but they are in slightly better shape.

Other than that, the only mid-major conference tournaments I am following are:
American East (Go Stony Brook!)
CUSA (Go UTEP!)

Did I miss anything? :slight_smile:


#3

[quote=“noobd, post:2, topic:907”]All bubble teams are hoping that Butler, Gonzaga and Old Dominion don’t lose.
UNI is probably bubble IN, but bubble teams should root for them anyway.
Siena would bubble-out. Utah State would too, but they are in slightly better shape.

Other than that, the only mid-major conference tournaments I am following are:
American East (Go Stony Brook!)
CUSA (Go UTEP!)

Did I miss anything? :)[/quote]
Probably? ::slight_smile:


#4

Northern Iowa: 25-4 (15-3) RPI: #20, SOS: #112
Wins: Old Dominion(38), Siena (40), Wichita State (50)
Losses: Evansville(243), Depaul (193), Bradley (108)

St Mary’s: 24-5 (10-3) RPI: 44, SOS: #138
Wins: @Utah State (34), San Diego State (38)
Losses: Neutral court vs USC (105)

If Northern Iowa lost (it would have to happen in order for them to be considered an at large) early in the tournament, then yes, it would be very probable. Their SOS would drop, their RPI would drop 10-15~ points, they would have an almost identical record to the Gaels, and they would have 4 bad losses. They would be right around the last 4 in if they lost early in the tournament because St Mary’s is right around the last 2 in-first 4 out range and UNI would have a slightly better resume.

If UNI loses in their first game they would have a loss to one of the following RPIs: Drake (184), SIU (159). Second game: Creighton (104), Bradley (108).

If they make it past that, they are pretty much a lock unless Evansville made it to the finals and beat them which is just ridiculous.


#5
[quote="Spike the Kool-Aid, post:3, topic:907"]Probably? ::)[/quote]

Northern Iowa: 25-4 (15-3) RPI: #20, SOS: #112
Wins: Old Dominion(38), Siena (40), Wichita State (50)
Losses: Evansville(243), Depaul (193), Bradley (108)

St Mary’s: 24-5 (10-3) RPI: 44, SOS: #138
Wins: @Utah State (34), San Diego State (38)
Losses: Neutral court vs USC (105)

If Northern Iowa lost (it would have to happen in order for them to be considered an at large) early in the tournament, then yes, it would be very probable. Their SOS would drop, their RPI would drop 10-15~ points, they would have an almost identical record to the Gaels, and they would have 4 bad losses. They would be right around the last 4 in if they lost early in the tournament because St Mary’s is right around the last 2 in-first 4 out range and UNI would have a slightly better resume.

If UNI loses in their first game they would have a loss to one of the following RPIs: Drake (184), SIU (159). Second game: Creighton (104), Bradley (108).

If they make it past that, they are pretty much a lock unless Evansville made it to the finals and beat them which is just ridiculous.


I seem to have missed the mark on making my point.

UNI will be in the NCAA Tournament, regardless of what they do in the MVC Tournament. There is no probably to it. ::slight_smile:

If you are going to tout an NCAA bracketology website, you might want to at least get the 15-20 teams right that will have no trouble being in before Championship Week even starts.


#6

Jerry Palm currently has 29 teams as “LOCKS” and Northern Iowa isn’t one of them. I’d be shocked if they don’t find their way in, however they certainly aren’t in the top 15-20 teams right now. Here is Palm’s take on them…

"The Panthers followed up their best win of the season with their worst loss. We don’t know what good this team is capable of - home wins over borderline teams like ODU and Siena don’t tell us much - but we do know they are capable of being quite bad at times. "

I know I say it every year at this time, but the $25 yearly subscription to his site is a fantastic deal and a must-have for any college hoops junkie. In addition to all of his bracket predictions, team write-ups, and weekly/dailly updates, the amount of information, both current and historical, is second to none when it comes to RPI info (and even schedules/results over the last 15 years).


#7

[quote=“Spike the Kool-Aid, post:5, topic:907”]I seem to have missed the mark on making my point.

UNI will be in the NCAA Tournament, regardless of what they do in the MVC Tournament. There is no probably to it. ::slight_smile:

If you are going to tout an NCAA bracketology website, you might want to at least get the 15-20 teams right that will have no trouble being in before Championship Week even starts. [/quote]
Guess we disagree. Thanks for making no comments on my evaluation on the rest of their season… I thought it was pretty valid.

As for my blog, what teams in my last update that aren’t locks should be, and which that are locks shouldn’t be? Let me know.


#8

Lots of chalk tonight. The top 4 seeds all won in the Big South. The only lower seed to win in the Horizon was 7th seeded Detroit over 6th seeded Valpo. And in the Ohio Valley, 3 of the top 4 seeds won, with the lone upset being 6th seed Tennessee Tech over 3rd seed Austin Peay.


#9

The first big upset of Championship Week happened this afternoon, as 8th seeded Kennessaw St knocked off the top seed Lipscomb in the Atlantic Sun tourney. It’s not overly shocking as Lipscomb finished in a 4-way tie for first, and at least they’ll have the NIT to fall back on. There is one other A-Sun game tonight (the 2-7 game).

The Patriot League also gets underway tonight with all 8 teams in action. The 2-7 game between Bucknell and Holy Cross is on CBS College Sports. Lehigh is the top seed, but it appears that any team that wins it would probably be a 16 seed (and anyone other than Lehigh likely sent to Dayton for the play-in game).