PennStateHoops.com Discussion Forum

Bubble Watch 2011


#1

Some good news for us tonight. Wazzu gets smoked on the road, losing 69-43 to a very mediocre Oregon team. Rivals has Penn State in the bracket as of today, but states we definitely need another road win to have a shot of dancing.


#2

Butler took another loss last night that they absolutely couldn’t have, losing at Youngstown State. The only way they dance now is winning the Horizon tourney.


#3

Interesting how Washington and Washington State both get smoked, on the road, to bad teams from the state of Oregon in one night.


#4

We need to take care of matters at hand. Anybody seeing the Michigan v. OSU game last night has to be concerned about this upcoming game. IMO, we’re no better than 50/50 if Brooks doesn’t play. Morgan gets better by the game. Then on to Lansing vs. a team which looks awful, but Izzo will instill a do or die situation on them, so this is also a very risky game. I’d stop worrying about bubbles til these two are over. Sans Brooks, we’re not so good, maybe not even able to beat any conference team, if you saw recent wins of IU and Iowa. Two losses in the next two and all bubble talk will be over.


#5

I think it’s progressed to the point where the other bubble teams aren’t lighting anyone up, so it’s in our hands if we take care of business. We need to hold serve at home, steal a roaddie, and win 1 at the B10’s.

Lar, help me out here… What do you think it will take to land a #5 seed fot the B-10’s? Missing that 1st rounder really helps get us to Saturday and shows really nice to the committee. I still think that was the biggest blow the year we lost in OT to Iowa was that we missed out on the Thursday bye.


#6

It appeared last night that the Michigan offense ran everything from the foul line…nobody on the blocks. There were alot of pick and rolls from Mich…the best play in basketball. OSU was play man so I’m guessing Mich figured posting up Sullinger was a losing battle.


#7

Pomeroy’s projections today have a 9-9 Minnesota team finishing alone in 5th (we’re projected to go 8-10 and finish tied with MSU for 6th/7th). The tiebreaker with Minnesota could really go in any direction. If one of us sweeps, that we’ll obviously have the tiebreaker. If not, then it’ll probably come down to record against OSU (we’ve both lost on the road, and both still have them at home). If PSU beats both of us, then it’ll come down to who finishes higher out of Purdue and Wisconsin (if it’s Purdue, they’ll have the tiebreaker, Wisconsin and we’ll have it).

To sum it up, if we can get to 10-8, I think we’d have a >50% chance of being the 5 seed, but it’s certainly not a guarantee.


#8

Honestly, MSU is completely reeling right now. Losing Lucious has thrown that team into turmoil.

Some big games this weekend for the bubble:

WVU @ Kansas
Colorado @ Mizzou
VT@BC
KState @ Iowa State
Bama @ Tenneesse

We want those home teams to win in order to thin the bubble out even more. Get the W on sunday and we should be in pretty good shape. Our RPI is a very healthy 43.


#9

It was a good game. Sullinger’s such a beast. We don’t have a beast like that, so with Jeff questionable, we may have issues. Morgan is good. With Jeff, I think we’re okay. Without him, very iffy, IMO. If OSU didn’t have Sullinger, they would have lost that game. Have you ever seen anyone shoot FT’s like Lauderdale? Watching him shoot FT’s could hurt your shooting. Talk about herky jerky. He’s shooting them at 30%. Probably 90% of the crowd could beat that.


#10

The easiest way for us to make it is just win, so let’s win some games :slight_smile:


#11
[quote="Joe, post:6, topic:1901"]It appeared last night that the Michigan offense ran everything from the foul line....nobody on the blocks. There were alot of pick and rolls from Mich....the best play in basketball. OSU was play man so I'm guessing Mich figured posting up Sullinger was a losing battle.[/quote]

It was a good game. Sullinger’s such a beast. We don’t have a beast like that, so with Jeff questionable, we may have issues. Morgan is good. With Jeff, I think we’re okay. Without him, very iffy, IMO. If OSU didn’t have Sullinger, they would have lost that game. Have you ever seen anyone shoot FT’s like Lauderdale? Watching him shoot FT’s could hurt your shooting. Talk about herky jerky. He’s shooting them at 30%. Probably 90% of the crowd could beat that.

The thing that really bugs me about the Sullinger situation is that he gets the calls like he’s a senior. Against Penn State, they were giving him the calls while we had 4 seniors on the floor. Usually, you have to play in the league for 4 years before you get the whistles they were giving him. The refs know he’s a lottery pick, and they call the game accordingly. Doesn’t seem right.


#12

[quote=“BleedPSU, post:8, topic:1901”]Honestly, MSU is completely reeling right now. Losing Lucious has thrown that team into turmoil.

Some big games this weekend for the bubble:

WVU @ Kansas
Colorado @ Mizzou
VT@BC
KState @ Iowa State
Bama @ Tenneesse

We want those home teams to win in order to thin the bubble out even more. Get the W on sunday and we should be in pretty good shape. Our RPI is a very healthy 43.[/quote]

I’d go the other way in that Alabama-Tennessee game. There is almost no way that Bama plays themselves back into the mix, I think it’s much more likely that Tennessee collapses.


#13
[quote="Joe, post:6, topic:1901"]It appeared last night that the Michigan offense ran everything from the foul line....nobody on the blocks. There were alot of pick and rolls from Mich....the best play in basketball. OSU was play man so I'm guessing Mich figured posting up Sullinger was a losing battle.[/quote]

It was a good game. Sullinger’s such a beast. We don’t have a beast like that, so with Jeff questionable, we may have issues. Morgan is good. With Jeff, I think we’re okay. Without him, very iffy, IMO. If OSU didn’t have Sullinger, they would have lost that game. Have you ever seen anyone shoot FT’s like Lauderdale? Watching him shoot FT’s could hurt your shooting. Talk about herky jerky. He’s shooting them at 30%. Probably 90% of the crowd could beat that.

The thing that really bugs me about the Sullinger situation is that he gets the calls like he’s a senior. Against Penn State, they were giving him the calls while we had 4 seniors on the floor. Usually, you have to play in the league for 4 years before you get the whistles they were giving him. The refs know he’s a lottery pick, and they call the game accordingly. Doesn’t seem right.


He is their star and the game was in Columbus. Home cooking.

#14

[quote=“frats, post:7, topic:1901”]Pomeroy’s projections today have a 9-9 Minnesota team finishing alone in 5th (we’re projected to go 8-10 and finish tied with MSU for 6th/7th). The tiebreaker with Minnesota could really go in any direction. If one of us sweeps, that we’ll obviously have the tiebreaker. If not, then it’ll probably come down to record against OSU (we’ve both lost on the road, and both still have them at home). If PSU beats both of us, then it’ll come down to who finishes higher out of Purdue and Wisconsin (if it’s Purdue, they’ll have the tiebreaker, Wisconsin and we’ll have it).

To sum it up, if we can get to 10-8, I think we’d have a >50% chance of being the 5 seed, but it’s certainly not a guarantee.[/quote]

I think that’s a fair assessment. One thing that I’ll add is that if we finish 10-8, we’ll probably have beaten Minnesota twice and thus own the tiebreaker. Also, if Illinois gets into the mix by being a multiple team tie, it will help considerably if they beat Minnesota next Thursday. Multiple team ties are broken by teams combined records against each other and our 1-1 against Illinois would be better than Minnesota’s 0-1. Similarly, if it’s a multiple team tie between PSU, MSU, and Minn, it would be helpful for us to have beaten MSU twice and MSU to beat Minn in 2 1/2 weeks so that MSU owns a sweep over Minn.


#15

Some games that I had noted on my blog:

Cincinnati @ #4 Pittsburgh – 6PM ESPN3 – Despite a nice record, the Bearcats are the 10th or 11th best team in the Big East. #2 Kansas @ Nebraska – 4PM ESPN3 – Could be the second big win for Nebraska in three games. Baylor @ #16 Texas A/M – 2PM ESPN – Important game for both. A/M has lost 2 of their last 3, while Baylor is struggling to string together some wins. Colorado @ #14 Missouri – 730PM ESPN3 – After a hot start to Big 12 play, Colorado has fallen off. Need this win. Butler @ Cleveland State – Noon ESPN2 – Butler is only 6-4 in Horizon League play. They need all the wins they can get. St. John’s @ UCLA – 1PM CBS – Fresh off their demolishing of Duke at the Garden, the Johnnies take on fellow bubble team UCLA. Virginia Tech @ Boston College – 1PM – Virginia Tech is right around the bubble. They need to climb the ACC standings. Memphis @ Gonzaga – 4PM ESPN – Two teams that will be in trouble if they don’t win their respective conferences. The loser probably won’t have much of an at-large shot. Ole Miss @ Arkansas – 6PM ESPN2 – Must win for both SEC teams.

Nebraska, Baylor, and Butler should all be dead, but losses won’t hurt (PSU).

Memphis doesn’t really have a shot at an at-large, and Gonzaga’s RPI is in the high 80s. I guess its better if Memphis won? Not really sure. Memphis doesn’t have to beat SMC to get an auto-bid, but the CUSA is deeper than the WCC (UAB, UTEP, So Miss, UCF).


#16
[quote="frats, post:7, topic:1901"]Pomeroy's projections today have a 9-9 Minnesota team finishing alone in 5th (we're projected to go 8-10 and finish tied with MSU for 6th/7th). The tiebreaker with Minnesota could really go in any direction. If one of us sweeps, that we'll obviously have the tiebreaker. If not, then it'll probably come down to record against OSU (we've both lost on the road, and both still have them at home). If PSU beats both of us, then it'll come down to who finishes higher out of Purdue and Wisconsin (if it's Purdue, they'll have the tiebreaker, Wisconsin and we'll have it).

To sum it up, if we can get to 10-8, I think we’d have a >50% chance of being the 5 seed, but it’s certainly not a guarantee.[/quote]

I think that’s a fair assessment. One thing that I’ll add is that if we finish 10-8, we’ll probably have beaten Minnesota twice and thus own the tiebreaker. Also, if Illinois gets into the mix by being a multiple team tie, it will help considerably if they beat Minnesota next Thursday. Multiple team ties are broken by teams combined records against each other and our 1-1 against Illinois would be better than Minnesota’s 0-1. Similarly, if it’s a multiple team tie between PSU, MSU, and Minn, it would be helpful for us to have beaten MSU twice and MSU to beat Minn in 2 1/2 weeks so that MSU owns a sweep over Minn.


Thanks, Guys! Sounds like 10-8 is the magic line to get that #5 seed. 9-9 won’t do it.

#17

I think 10-8 would almost guarantee the 5 seed at this point, but I don’t think we have to get to that number. I could easily see a 3 way tie at 9-9, with 3 splits among us, MSU and Minny. The difference will be if anyone else can beat Wisky.


#18

Lunardi has us in with the latest Bracketology. We definitely need to hold serve down the stretch and steal a road win the be a lock.


#19

Other bubble teams keep losing. I would think 10-8 in conference plus 1 BTT win would get us in for sure.


#20

St. Louis up by 4 at Xavier with 15 and change left to play. A loss like this for X would probably put them firmly on the bubble.