Bubble team analysis!


#1

Posted this here: http://bit.ly/9uEhIP - Just trying to get some more discussion beside Illinois and Minnesota going.

Missouri- For: Good OOC wins over Old Dom & Illinois. 4-7 vs Top 50. Against:3 Sup 100 RPI Losses. Bad down the stretch.

Louisville-
For:Beat #1 seeded Syracuse twice. Great SOS and good RPI.
Against: Only 3-7 vs Top 50. Bad loss to Western Carolina.

Georgia Tech-
For: 5-6 vs Top 50. Good SOS and RPI.
Against: Only 10-9 in conference. 2 sub 100 losses.

Utah State-
For: 2-1 vs Top 50. OOC wins over BYU and Wichita State. Good RPI.
Against: Two sub 100 losses. Bad SOS.

UTEP-
For: 15-1 in conference. 26 wins. Good RPI.
Against: No Top 25 wins, both Top wins (2-1) are against UAB. Bad SOS. 2 sub 100 losses.

Illinois-
For: 5 Top 50 wins. 2 great OOC wins. Good SOS.
Against: 14 losses. Bad RPI. 4 sub 100 losses.

California-
For: Great RPI and SOS.
Against: 1-6 vs Top 50, no Top 25 wins. 6 losses in a bad Pac-10.
--------BUBBLE POPS------------------------
Virginia Tech-
For: 3-4 vs Top 50.
Against: Bad SOS, OK RPI. No Top 25 wins.

Florida-
For: Good OOC wins (FSU,MSU). Good SOS.
Against: 2 bad losses (1 sub 200). Finished weak. 3-8 vs Top 50.

Minnesota-
For: 5-6 vs Top 50 (3 Top 25 wins). Butler OOC win. Finished strong.
Against: 4 Sub 100 losses (1 sub 200). 3-7 in road games.

Seton Hall-
For: No bad losses. Good SOS. 4 Top 50 wins. OOC @Cornell.
Against: OK RPI.

Rhode Island-
For: Good RPI. OOC win over Oklahoma State.
Against: 2 Sub 100 losses, bad SOS. No Top 25 wins, 1-5 vs Top 50.

Miss State-
For: Old Dom OOC win. Finishing strong.
Against: 5 Sub 100 losses. Only 1 Top 50 SEC win. Bad SOS.

I’m starting to think Minnesota and Illinois are a “pair”. Either both are going to miss or make. Both have a lot of quality wins, so I can’t really see them missing. If Minnesota wins today, we might see a surprise team like Utah State, UTEP or California miss the tournament… or I can be totally wrong and that would knock Illinois out.


#2

Miss State and Minny could definitely throw a wrench in this thing.

I personally believe Illinois is a better team than Minnesota, but generally the hotter team will get in and because they’re so similar I think if only one were to get in (assuming they don’t win it today) it would be Minny over Illinois. But I would be okay with any scenario, neither really can make a gripe about any scenario that plays out as far as I can see.

Utah State, Utep, and Cal all should be a bit concerned too. I do think you have it pretty much nailed at the bottom as of right now, I can’t see VaTech, Florida, The Hall, or Rhodie getting in now. But it’s pretty close.

Good job with this stuff all season man, I used to follow it as closely as you but have gotten away from it a bit in a recent years. This year in particular was either really tough or really easy depending on how you look at it, being such a weak bubble. I’d be pretty happy if it came down the way you have it here though, I think you’ve picked the most deserving teams.


#3

Some damn good games today so far.

MSU probably SHOULD be out, but you get a lot of credit for playing ON selection sunday and it might be enough to give them a nudge over a similar team that hasn’t played in a bunch of days now.


#4

Thanks :slight_smile:

Miss St does get a lot of credit for playing on Selection Sunday, but they still don’t have enough overall credit. A handful of bad losses and a weak SOS doomed them. I feel that the SEC is weak as a whole (I was tough on them last year, I wanted a 1 bid league - Vols). Their top team (Tucky) has an SOS in the 60s in remember correctly. Definitely my #1 seed to flop early.

These three teams are likely going to get screwed (at least I feel they should):
UTEP
Utah State
California

UTEP is probably the first to go. Cal has great numbers, but no meat to their resume. I’d take Illinois and Minnesota over these teams any day. Why reward these three teams that lost in their weak conference title when Minny and Illinois battled against top teams in theirs? Illinois beat Top 25 Wisky and took OSU to double OT. Minny beat PSU, beat MSU, beat Purdue (no Hummel), and is only down 3 at half to OSU.

It might not be the way the cookie crumbles, but its how it SHOULD crumble.


#5

I rushed the selection a little bit because I’m going out, but oh well!

Punched a ticket (30): Cornell, Old Dom, St Mary’s, ETSU, Winthrop, Siena, Northern Iowa, Murray State, Wofford, North Texas, Butler, Robert Morris, Montana, Lehigh, Houston, Vermont, Morgan State, Sam Houston State, Ohio, Kansas, San Diego State, Washington, UC Santa Barbara, WVU, New Mexico State, Arkansas PB, Duke, Temple, Kentucky, OSU

Thats 30 bids gone right there, so there are 35 left.

Locks (26):
Villanova, Pitt, Nova, Georgetown, Marquette, Notre Dame, MSU, Purdue, Wisconsin, KState, Texas, Baylor, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, Vandy, Tennessee, Richmond, Xavier, BYU, New Mexico, UNLV, Maryland, Clemson, Florida State, Wake Forest, Gonzaga

9 Bids left.

Watch Your Back Region:
------->98% Chance of getting in----------
1-Missouri (22-10 (10-7), RPI #44, SOS #47)
2-Louisville (20-12 (11-7), RPI #37, SOS #7)
3-Georgia Tech (22-11 (7-9), RPI #33, SOS #17)
------->50% Chance of getting in-----------
4-Utah State (27-6 (14-2), RPI #31, SOS #100)
5-Minnesota (21-13 (9-9), RPI #60, SOS #44)
6-Illinois (19-13 (10-8), RPI #74, SOS #35)
7-California (23-10 (15-6), RPI #20, SOS #14)
8-UTEP (26-7) (15-1), RPI #36, SOS #111)
9-

---------------BUBBLE POPS----------------------------

Virginia Tech (23-8 (10-6), RPI #59, SOS #128)
Florida (21-12 (9-7), RPI #56, SOS #33)
-------<5% of getting in
Seton Hall (19-12 (9-9), RPI #61, SOS #31)
Rhode Island (23-9 (9-7), RPI #40, SOS #71)
Miss State (23-10 (9-7), RPI #69, SOS #103)
-------<1% of getting in
Ole Miss (21-10 (9-7), RPI #54, SOS #97)
Dayton (19-12 (8-8), RPI #55, SOS #32)
Memphis (23-9 (13-3), RPI #53, SOS #85)
Arizona State (22-10 (12-6), RPI #63, SOS #79)

I’ll post back after the Selection Show!


#6

Ok I think I messed my math up… well I’m going out for a bit. But thats the order my teams are in … Anyone care to check it for me and post back?


#7

Minnesota gets in as an 11 vs. Xavier


#8

Only teams I misread was VT and Florida. I had VT as last in, instead of Florida. No argument from me… it makes sense.


#9

Oops. Florida in for Illinois, not VT.


#10

Funniest part of the show was Bob Huggins.


#11

What happened? I missed the first 3 regions.


#12
[quote="tundra, post:10, topic:973"]Funniest part of the show was Bob Huggins.[/quote] What happened? I missed the first 3 regions.

Every other team jumped up and down and cheered wildly when the camera was on them after their selection. At WVU Huggins just put out his arms in a “shrug” and the team was very subdued. I don’t think he was happy with their seeding!


#13

Good call by Dave Jones below on the article of 3/5 on the link below:

V-Tech is destined for same fate as Penn State in '09 if it loses in Atlanta and makes no run in Greensboro. Same noncon resume; should be same result — NIT.

http://blog.pennlive.com/davidjones/2010/03/college_central_division_i_sta_2.html


#14

[quote=“CAPPY, post:13, topic:973”]Good call by Dave Jones below on the article of 3/5 on the link below:

http://blog.pennlive.com/davidjones/2010/03/college_central_division_i_sta_2.html[/quote]

Yeah…their non-con killed them. Seth Greenberg is probably angry at us for being so bad this season.

I bet if we had last year’s resume this year, we’d be this field given the top 25/50 wins…pretty weak end of the at large field this time around.


#15
[quote="tundra, post:10, topic:973"]Funniest part of the show was Bob Huggins.[/quote] What happened? I missed the first 3 regions.

Every other team jumped up and down and cheered wildly when the camera was on them after their selection. At WVU Huggins just put out his arms in a “shrug” and the team was very subdued. I don’t think he was happy with their seeding!


In papers today Huggins in questioning their “7th” seed; or 3rd #2 seed.