PennStateHoops.com Discussion Forum

Big Ten hoops news

Hard to believe that Rutgers has a worse game atmosphere than the cavernous hull of obnoxiously loud DJ music that is the BJC.

With Kevin’s, now 44 pre-season predictions logged:

  AVG
1 Michigan State 1.00
2 Maryland 2.42
3 Ohio State 3.21
4 Purdue 3.81
5 Michigan 5.99
6 Illinois 6.10
7 Wisconsin 6.72
8 Iowa 8.47
9 Penn State 8.66
10 Indiana 9.20
11 Minnesota 10.44
12 Rutgers 11.23
13 Nebraska 12.33
14 Northwestern 13.19

Distribution

  MSU MD PU ILL OSU PSU WI MI IA RU IU MN NE NW
1 43 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 1 28 4 1 9 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
3 0 9 11 1 23 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
4 0 6 23 1 7 0 3 2 2 0 0 0 0 0
5 0 0 4 9 4 1 5 19 1 0 0 0 0 0
6 0 0 1 16 1 4 10 9 1 0 1 0 1 0
7 0 0 0 9 0 6 13 5 5 0 5 1 0 0
8 0 0 0 2 0 10 10 5 10 0 5 2 0 0
9 0 0 1 5 0 5 0 2 12 3 10 7 0 0
10 0 0 0 0 0 8 1 0 7 5 11 9 2 0
11 0 0 0 0 0 6 2 1 5 8 11 12 0 0
12 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 1 20 1 6 11 2
13 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 6 0 7 21 9
14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 9 33
Total predictions 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44
First and second-round bye 44 44 38 3 39 0 3 3 2 0 0 0 0 0
Next - Top Half 0 0 5 34 5 11 28 33 7 0 6 1 1 0
Next - First Round Bye 0 0 1 7 0 23 11 7 29 8 26 18 2 0
Playing first round 0 0 0 0 0 10 2 1 6 36 12 25 41 44
Percent (Cumulative)
First and second-round bye 100.0% 100.0% 86.4% 6.8% 88.6% 0.0% 6.8% 6.8% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top Half 100.0% 100.0% 97.7% 84.1% 100.0% 25.0% 70.5% 81.8% 20.5% 0.0% 13.6% 2.3% 2.3% 0.0%
First Round Bye 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 77.3% 95.5% 97.7% 86.4% 18.2% 72.7% 43.2% 6.8% 0.0%
Playing first round 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 22.7% 4.5% 2.3% 13.6% 81.8% 27.3% 56.8% 93.2% 100.0%
1 Like
NAT’L RK TEAM MINUTES RETURNING
27 Maryland 83.30%
32 Illinois 81.60%
79 Rutgers 71.40%
86 Penn St. 70.40%
93 Wisconsin 69.70%
99 Ohio St. 68.80%
125 Michigan St. 65.60%
162 Iowa 60.80%
174 Indiana 59%
211 Michigan 54.20%
221 Purdue 53.10%
272 Northwestern 44.80%
326 Minnesota 32.80%
353 Nebraska 4.10%

353 is Absolute Zero.

1 Like

When adjusted for returning possession minutes:

RK TEAM RET. POSS. MINS.
23 Illinois 85%
35 Maryland 80.70%
70 Rutgers 71.90%
98 Penn St. 67.30%
101 Ohio St. 66.80%
116 Michigan St. 64.40%
154 Wisconsin 58.90%
169 Iowa 56.20%
180 Indiana 53.70%
213 Purdue 48.50%
222 Michigan 47.30%
268 Northwestern 41.50%
321 Minnesota 29%
353 Nebraska 2.80%

Thought losing Josh and Rasir would have a bigger impact, but it was relatively small. (Compare with the loss of Ethan Happ. Also note that RU’s loss of Eugene Omoruyi doesn’t have much of an impact at the offensive end.)

2 Likes

I really don’t see how PSU loses to Minnesota this go around.

Against Indiana last year, Minnesota shot 12-22 from three.

At Michigan last year, Penn State shot 1-14 from three.

Let’s say those kind of shooting percentages align one night when Penn State and Minnesota play.

Forget all the specifics about roster, coaching, matchups (I only picked these two schools because they were mentioned) and what we generally know about travel, mindsets and everything else that college basketball can throw at you; it takes little more than shooting nights to align like that to make it pretty easy to see.

Sure we all know that. On paper I don’t see how we lose it this go around and that’s good enough for me.

  AVG All High / Low Prediction Range STD DEV :bar_chart: AVG Analytics :eyes: AVG Eyeballs
1 Michigan State 1.02 1 / 2 1 0.14 1.0 (1) 1.02 (1)
2 Maryland 2.46 1 / 4 3 0.76 2.8 (3) 2.43 (2)
3 Ohio State 3.28 2 / 6 4 0.97 4.0 (4) 3.22 (3)
4 Purdue 3.71 2 / 9 7 1.17 2.3 (2) 3.80 (4)
5 Michigan 5.92 2 / 11 9 1.59 5.7 (5) 5.93 (5)
6 Illinois 6.27 2 / 10 8 1.58 7.0 (6) 6.22 (6)
7 Wisconsin 6.88 4 / 11 7 1.58 7.7 (t7) 6.83 (7)
8 Iowa 8.52 4 / 12 8 1.73 8.0 (9) 8.56 (8)
9 Penn State 8.78 5 / 13 8 1.93 7.7 (t7) 8.85 (9)
10 Indiana 9.32 6 / 12 6 1.49 8.7 (10) 9.36 (10)
11 Minnesota 10.71 7 / 13 6 1.50 11.7 (12) 10.64 (11)
12 Rutgers 11.62 9 / 14 5 1.17 11.0 (11) 11.66 (12)
13 Nebraska 12.70 6 / 14 8 1.35 13.0 (13) 12.68 (13)
14 Northwestern 13.70 12 / 14 2 0.55 14.0 (14) 13.68 (14)

There are 50 predictions in, although that includes three partials - one top 25 and two NCAA tournament projections.

Michigan has the widest range - from 2nd to 11th, nine different spots. Penn State had the most uncertainty.

Bullish on Penn State: Jon Rothstein of CBS (5th), T-Rank (6th), Andy Katz (6th), Joe Lunardi (6th).

Bearish on Penn State: Jeff Potrykus of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel (13th), Dave Jones of The Harrisburg Patriot-News (12th), Kevin Sweeney of CBB Central (12th) and Matt Norlander of CBS (12th).

1 Like
1 Like

I thought they were not allowed to keep an official score at these double secret probation scrimmages.

Rasir got the start for ISU

and shot 3-13 on the evening… we saw a few nights like that from him. He wasn’t alone though, 1-6, 2-9, 3-12,1-7… 22/72 on the evening for them, yikes.

Rasir’s going to be a good college player, I think. Most of those misses were from 2. He also played 34 minutes, suggests they have confidence in him (without scanning their roster to see if they have alternatives). Have been talking him up since he got there.