A Realistic View of this Season - Update


#1

After 5 more games, here’s my updated take on the team.

First, we are a bad major conference team. I don’t understand why people are optimistic for next season (or even later this season). This team is struggling because we don’t have any big-ten caliber front line players. Our problem is not youth/inexperience, its that our current roster makeup isn’t going to be successful. Unless ED brings in a JUCO power forward/center, we’re going to struggle again next year. Our front line is putting up stats simply because its impossible not to record 6 and 6 when you play 25 minutes a game.

KidC is dead-on in his assessment of our offense - without any post presence, its abysmal. No matter how good Battle/Buie are next season, a front line of Brooks/Jackson/Jones/Ott isn’t going to win games. I’m guessing ED sees it as well, and he’s going to start opening up scholarships next season for a JUCO (likely Oliver/Woodyard). People need to be realistic - its shocking that fans think we’re a lock for the tourney next season, and even more so, that we’re going to be a lot better in a few months with the same roster.

Also, Gottlieb is one of the best announcers on TV. How many other announcers would have picked up on these tidbits from two of the least notable major-conference teams: (a) Frazier can’t go left, (b) Davila has the best jump hook in the conference, and © VaTech’s terrible defensive spacing. Gottlieb is annoying to many because he takes positions on the issues (unlike Dickie V/Rafterty), but he was great today. I was amazed he knew that much about the two teams today.

As far as specifics:

Battle - playing as well as he can. He should be honorable mention AA. Agreed on the criticisms that his FF form is broken - and it cost him today. Can’t say enough about him.

Frazier - really struggling. Doesn’t have the offensive game yet to compete at this level. I’m starting to temper my expectations for him a bit. He has some serious flaws in his game (no left, no shot) that are going to prevent him from being a big contributor in the near future.

Edwards - great basketball sense, but he’s also going to struggle until he devotes himself to the weightroom. If he transforms his body over the next 12 months, he could be a huge asset. ED should be getting him more minutes now.

Jackson - Jackson is playing better lately, but the problem is that he’s playing the 4 spot with no toughness/rebounding. He’s overmatched down-low and its going to hurt next month. The Sacred Heart game was a complete mirage - that front line was DII caliber. Yes, 11 FTs, but at least 5 were on jumpers and the SH defenders looked like high school kids.

Brooks - he’s also really struggling. Today was another example of him disappearing against physical teams. He’s crucial to having a somewhat respectable season, so hopefully ED can get through.

Jones - Jones is giving the team nothing at the 5. You are going to average 6 and 6 just by playing 25-30 minutes a game.

For our starting front line, there’s a great stat that Hollinger uses in the NBA called replacement value, which takes into account how much better or worse player x is than the average NBA player at his position. Where PSU struggles is that each of its front-line players get seemingly decent statistics, but we need to remember that these are so far below average for the big ten. We are getting nothing out of our front court statistically, and what compounds the problem is that none of them have any post-up games that allow the offense to work.

Babb/Woodward - I don’t understand why Babb is getting more minutes than Woodyard. Babb is too one-dimensional, and at some point, he can’t keep sending him out there to go 1-5.

Ott - played his heart out today, but he’s just too slow to give effective minutes. It is clear watching the game he’s overmatched physically.

Sasa - I’m starting to worry about him as well - if he can’t get minutes on this frontline, then that is a problem.

Depth - Many people are also saying this is the deepest team we’ve ever had under ED, but I don’t see it. Realistically, ED is going 7 deep (with Ott/Woodward getting token minutes). And after Battle, 2-7 are nowhere near the caliber of guys like Pringle/Cornley/Morrisey. I knew we’d miss Pringle, but even Morrisey is a huge loss now.

Overall, I’m guessing that 8-4, 5-13, 0-1 for 13-18 is about right for this year. This team is not going to get a lot better as the season goes on - it just has too many missing parts. Even if some of our young players improve as the season goes on, its doesn’t change the roster. And that’s the problem. We’re going to see a lot more games like this in the next months (where 4/5/6 guys have 1-fers)

As far as ED’s coaching, he’s doing a decent job with a very limited roster. However, I’d like to see Edwards/Sasa get more minutes. Also, I agree with the posters saying that its NCAA tournament or bust next year for ED. If ED doesn’t get Battle to the tournament next year, he should be fired. At some point with ED, enough is enough and let’s get someone in here who can get the job done. The NIT run was great, but that shouldn’t buy him another 3/4 years.


#2

Can’t really argue with anything your saying. This is a one man team. Battle had 12 FG’s, the rest of the team had 10. People get excited when Jackson or Brooks put up a couple of decent games stat-wise, but you’re right, if you get their minutes your bound to get some stats. Its like Marlon Smith during his freshman year. Babb and Jones have been awful. I find it really hard to believe that the only thing keeping this team from being an NCAA tounament team is Buie. I think a lot of people seriously underestimated Cornley and Pringle, or more likely overestimated how good the rest of the team was.


#3

Its more Cornley that is missed most. He was the toughness inside that is sorely missed.


#4

[quote=“FanofPSU, post:1, topic:481”]:

Jones - Jones is giving the team nothing at the 5. You are going to average 6 and 6 just by playing 25-30 minutes a game.

Our play at the 5 is just killing this team right now. Let alone no scoring they are getting pushed around D and on the boards.

Babb/Woodward - I don’t understand why Babb is getting more minutes than Woodyard. Babb is too one-dimensional, and at some point, he can’t keep sending him out there to go 1-5.

Wondering the same thing :-\

Sasa - I’m starting to worry about him as well - if he can’t get minutes on this frontline, then that is a problem.

He has shown that he should be able to contribute down the road. Why not let him steal a few mins from Jones/Ott a game. Can it really hurt?[/quote]


#5

We don’t recruit the John Walls of the world. It takes time for a team to become a team.

Hasn’t anyone here seen Hoosiers? We have Jimmy Chitwood. It takes time.

My team is on the floor


#6

Babb plays better defense than Woodyard, and is a better pure shooter. Better rebounder, too. Not one dimensional in the slightest. Morissey was one-dimensional.


#7

[quote=“Devon, post:6, topic:481”]Babb plays better defense than Woodyard, and is a better pure shooter. Better rebounder, too. Not one dimensional in the slightest. Morissey was one-dimensional.[/quote]Better pure shooter? They both are shooting 29% from the floor so I wouldn’t say either one is to “pure”. If one isn’t hitting I don’t think it would hurt to see if you might get lucky with the other one.


#8

I’m not asking for the John Walls. However, it is reasonable to ask that we have at least one player on the roster with somewhat of a post game. You are also missing my point regarding this team. You think time is going to make this team better - my issue is with the current roster makeup and its limitations. Extra practice/time isn’t going to change our current problems down low. No amount of Chitwood is going to fix that in the Big Ten.

[quote author=tjb link=topic=483.msg7169#msg7169 date=1260714706]
We don’t recruit the John Walls of the world. It takes time for a team to become a team.

Hasn’t anyone here seen Hoosiers? We have Jimmy Chitwood. It takes time.

]


#9

You may be right, but last year at this time a lot of people were saying the same things. And the team got a lot better.


#10
[quote="FanofPSU, post:8, topic:481"]I'm not asking for the John Walls. However, it is reasonable to ask that we have at least one player on the roster with somewhat of a post game. You are also missing my point regarding this team. You think time is going to make this team better - my issue is with the current roster makeup and its limitations. Extra practice/time isn't going to change our current problems down low. No amount of Chitwood is going to fix that in the Big Ten.[/quote]

You may be right, but last year at this time a lot of people were saying the same things. And the team got a lot better.

Yes, but we weren’t waiting for someone to become the players Cornley and Pringle were. From the start of last season they performed much better than any of Battle’s supporting cast this season.


#11
[quote="FanofPSU, post:8, topic:481"]I'm not asking for the John Walls. However, it is reasonable to ask that we have at least one player on the roster with somewhat of a post game. You are also missing my point regarding this team. You think time is going to make this team better - my issue is with the current roster makeup and its limitations. Extra practice/time isn't going to change our current problems down low. No amount of Chitwood is going to fix that in the Big Ten.[/quote]

You may be right, but last year at this time a lot of people were saying the same things. And the team got a lot better.

Yes, but we weren’t waiting for someone to become the players Cornley and Pringle were. From the start of last season they performed much better than any of Battle’s supporting cast this season.

That’s hindsight in my opinion. Cornley had no discernible role for the first half dozen games. Pringle was a guy coming off a decent, not great junior year. Most of the talk here a year ago at this time was about who should replace ED and whether we would win 4 Big Ten games.

Memories are short.


#12

TJB -

I have to disagree. You are way off here. With Cornley and Pringle, the issue was not whether those two could play at this level, but whether ED could mesh them together (and to his credit last year, ED did). However, with this team, the question is whether we have the horses. And after ten games, it is pretty clear that we don’t.

Let’s look at the box scores from the first ten games from last year. Cornley averaged about 15 and 8 last year. Pringle was also averaging about 13 points a game.

Here are the game logs:

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/player/gamelog?playerId=36464&year=2009

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/player/gamelog?playerId=27306&year=2009

Take a look and you’ll see why I’m concerned.

[/quote]

Yes, but we weren’t waiting for someone to become the players Cornley and Pringle were. From the start of last season they performed much better than any of Battle’s supporting cast this season.
[/quote]

That’s hindsight in my opinion. Cornley had no discernible role for the first half dozen games. Pringle was a guy coming off a decent, not great junior year. Most of the talk here a year ago at this time was about who should replace ED and whether we would win 4 Big Ten games.

Memories are short.
[/quote]


#13

[quote=“FanofPSU, post:12, topic:481”]TJB -

I have to disagree. You are way off here. With Cornley and Pringle, the issue was not whether those two could play at this level, but whether ED could mesh them together (and to his credit last year, ED did). However, with this team, the question is whether we have the horses. And after ten games, it is pretty clear that we don’t.

Let’s look at the box scores from the first ten games from last year. Cornley averaged about 15 and 8 last year. Pringle was also averaging about 13 points a game.

Here are the game logs:

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/player/gamelog?playerId=36464&year=2009

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/player/gamelog?playerId=27306&year=2009

Take a look and you’ll see why I’m concerned. [/quote]

Yes, but we weren’t waiting for someone to become the players Cornley and Pringle were. From the start of last season they performed much better than any of Battle’s supporting cast this season.
[/quote]

That’s hindsight in my opinion. Cornley had no discernible role for the first half dozen games. Pringle was a guy coming off a decent, not great junior year. Most of the talk here a year ago at this time was about who should replace ED and whether we would win 4 Big Ten games.

Memories are short.
[/quote]
[/quote]

Tim, don’t disagree. I’d just like to see our forwards play less like wings, and more like forwards, like Allen and Allen on VT and Temple. That said, I guess Temple wasn’t that bad. I thought this would be an interesting game. Guess there’s hope yet.

http://www.owlsports.com/news/2009/12/13/MBB_1213093823.aspx


#14

Disagree. Offensively Chris is very much one dimensional. His penetration drive and shot last night at the 55-59 seconds remaining was the first time I saw him penetrate/drive to within 6’ of the hoop. He appears to have a much better handle than his confident allows him to show, but on the rare occassions that he penetrates the perimeter he looks to pass with both his 1st and second options. Penetrate to get a closer shot is not what he is looking to do or thinking about, so just like DM the vast majority of his shots come from behind the arc.

He is not a pure shooter and his shooting percentages demonstrate it. DM, may have been one dimensional however his shooting form was mechanically superior and I am confident that by this point in DM’s second year his comparative stats would be measureably better than the ones Chris has been putting up.


#15
[quote="Devon, post:6, topic:481"]Babb plays better defense than Woodyard, and is a better pure shooter. Better rebounder, too. Not one dimensional in the slightest. Morissey was one-dimensional.[/quote] Disagree. Offensively Chris is very much one dimensional. His penetration drive and shot last night at the 55-59 seconds remaining was the first time I saw him penetrate/drive to within 6' of the hoop. He appears to have a much better handle than his confident allows him to show, but on the rare occassions that he penetrates the perimeter he looks to pass with both his 1st and second options. Penetrate to get a closer shot is not what he is looking to do or thinking about, so just like DM the vast majority of his shots come from behind the arc.

He is not a pure shooter and his shooting percentages demonstrate it. DM, may have been one dimensional however his shooting form was mechanically superior and I am confident that by this point in DM’s second year his comparative stats would be measureably better than the ones Chris has been putting up.

Morrissey missed his entire sophomore year but his freshman number and his redshirt soph YTD numbers were better than Babbs are.

Morrisey (frosh): 23.7 mpg, 7.7 ppg, .393 FG%, .358 3FG%, .632 FT%
Babb (frosh): 10.1 mpg, 2.8 ppg, .337 FG%, .349 3FG%, .619 FT%

Morrissey (RSo 10 games): 27.4 mpg, 10.4 ppg, .429 FG%, .373 3FG%, .800 FT%
Babb (soph 10 games): 23.4 mpg, 6.8 ppg, .294 FG%, .298 3FG%, .786 FT%


#16
[quote="Devon, post:6, topic:481"]Babb plays better defense than Woodyard, and is a better pure shooter. Better rebounder, too. Not one dimensional in the slightest. Morissey was one-dimensional.[/quote] Disagree. Offensively Chris is very much one dimensional. His penetration drive and shot last night at the 55-59 seconds remaining was the first time I saw him penetrate/drive to within 6' of the hoop. He appears to have a much better handle than his confident allows him to show, but on the rare occassions that he penetrates the perimeter he looks to pass with both his 1st and second options. Penetrate to get a closer shot is not what he is looking to do or thinking about, so just like DM the vast majority of his shots come from behind the arc.

He is not a pure shooter and his shooting percentages demonstrate it. DM, may have been one dimensional however his shooting form was mechanically superior and I am confident that by this point in DM’s second year his comparative stats would be measureably better than the ones Chris has been putting up.

Personally, I would disagree with you when you say he’s not a pure shooter. Yes, he has been shooting terribly this year, but I feel a large part of that may be confidence. I remember reading that he was one of the best 3 point shooters in the mid west when he commited to us as a high school senior, and at times he seems to show that he does have a nice shot. Confidence is a very big part of shooting, and I feel like Chris may be lacking that at the moment.


#17

[quote author=FanofPSU link=topic=483.msg7193#msg7193 date=1260724505]

I’m not asking for the John Walls. However, it is reasonable to ask that we have at least one player on the roster with somewhat of a post game. You are also missing my point regarding this team. You think time is going to make this team better - my issue is with the current roster makeup and its limitations. Extra practice/time isn’t going to change our current problems down low. No amount of Chitwood is going to fix that in the Big Ten.

We don't recruit the John Walls of the world. It takes time for a team to become a team.

Hasn’t anyone here seen Hoosiers? We have Jimmy Chitwood. It takes time.

]

We lost approx 30 ppg from last year (Mel, Pringle and Danny) and so far this year we have replaced it with about 20 ppg (between Talor scoring more, DJ, Brooks and the freshman). What I have noticed with this team is that when Talor is down, Brooks or DJ is up. We need a Big 3 again. I don’t care who we get it from, but we need 45 a night from 3 players and then another 20 to 25 ppg from the rest.


#18
[quote="Devon, post:6, topic:481"]Babb plays better defense than Woodyard, and is a better pure shooter. Better rebounder, too. Not one dimensional in the slightest. Morissey was one-dimensional.[/quote] Disagree. Offensively Chris is very much one dimensional. His penetration drive and shot last night at the 55-59 seconds remaining was the first time I saw him penetrate/drive to within 6' of the hoop. He appears to have a much better handle than his confident allows him to show, but on the rare occassions that he penetrates the perimeter he looks to pass with both his 1st and second options. Penetrate to get a closer shot is not what he is looking to do or thinking about, so just like DM the vast majority of his shots come from behind the arc.

He is not a pure shooter and his shooting percentages demonstrate it. DM, may have been one dimensional however his shooting form was mechanically superior and I am confident that by this point in DM’s second year his comparative stats would be measureably better than the ones Chris has been putting up.

Morrissey missed his entire sophomore year but his freshman number and his redshirt soph YTD numbers were better than Babbs are.

Morrisey (frosh): 23.7 mpg, 7.7 ppg, .393 FG%, .358 3FG%, .632 FT%
Babb (frosh): 10.1 mpg, 2.8 ppg, .337 FG%, .349 3FG%, .619 FT%

Morrissey (RSo 10 games): 27.4 mpg, 10.4 ppg, .429 FG%, .373 3FG%, .800 FT%
Babb (soph 10 games): 23.4 mpg, 6.8 ppg, .294 FG%, .298 3FG%, .786 FT%

Lar, it should be noted that Danny played a lot more in his Freshman and Soph years than he did as a Junior and Senior because he had to. As the team got deeper Danny became our 6th man, kind of like Babb is this year. However, now with Edwards I think Bill is surpassing Babb as our 6th man.


#19

Sure I’m disappointed with the outcome of the VT game but it really was an entertaining game to watch. I can think of multiple shots from within 8-10 feet that just didn’t fall for our guys. Brooks posted up once and Jones posted up a couple of times and they got good looks but couldn’t finish. Yes, our frontline could use some help (primarily tatoos, Kid, you should never be allowed to live that down), but I honestly didn’t see anything that makes me think the guys can’t get to 7 or 8 Big10 wins. That might put them on the NIT bubble (can’t say that’s where I want to be, but some of the close games that we won last year haven’t gone our way yet this year.) We’ll be a respectable team at the end of the season (finish T-8th in the Big 10).


#20
[quote="Devon, post:6, topic:481"]Babb plays better defense than Woodyard, and is a better pure shooter. Better rebounder, too. Not one dimensional in the slightest. Morissey was one-dimensional.[/quote] Disagree. Offensively Chris is very much one dimensional. His penetration drive and shot last night at the 55-59 seconds remaining was the first time I saw him penetrate/drive to within 6' of the hoop. He appears to have a much better handle than his confident allows him to show, but on the rare occassions that he penetrates the perimeter he looks to pass with both his 1st and second options. Penetrate to get a closer shot is not what he is looking to do or thinking about, so just like DM the vast majority of his shots come from behind the arc.

He is not a pure shooter and his shooting percentages demonstrate it. DM, may have been one dimensional however his shooting form was mechanically superior and I am confident that by this point in DM’s second year his comparative stats would be measureably better than the ones Chris has been putting up.

Personally, I would disagree with you when you say he’s not a pure shooter. Yes, he has been shooting terribly this year, but I feel a large part of that may be confidence. I remember reading that he was one of the best 3 point shooters in the mid west when he commited to us as a high school senior, and at times he seems to show that he does have a nice shot. Confidence is a very big part of shooting, and I feel like Chris may be lacking that at the moment.

Having grown up on the old westerns in the 50s, I just can not fathom Texas as being considered part of the “mid west”. ;D