PennStateHoops.com Discussion Forum

4-4 Virginia Tech

The following is hypothetical situation. I do not believe it will happen, but I’m just throwing this out there to the RPI pundits.

IF we somehow manage to win this game, is this even something we can hang our hat on come selection Sunday? I know we had mentioned that PSU needed to win one of the 3 games against Big Six competition in our non-con slate. At this point, Va Tech does not look like they are shaping up to be the team we thought they were. They’ve lost two in a row on their home court and are sitting at .500. Say Va Tech manages a 16-15 record or something like that…

Would a road win against a team like Va. Tech really offset the two losses we had against Ole Miss and Maryland in the committee’s eyes? I really don’t think it will.

Again, the preceding was a hypothetical situation.

[quote=“BleedPSU, post:1, topic:1604”]The following is hypothetical situation. I do not believe it will happen, but I’m just throwing this out there to the RPI pundits.

IF we somehow manage to win this game, is this even something we can hang our hat on come selection Sunday? I know we had mentioned that PSU needed to win one of the 3 games against Big Six competition in our non-con slate. At this point, Va Tech does not look like they are shaping up to be the team we thought they were. They’ve lost two in a row on their home court and are sitting at .500. Say Va Tech manages a 16-15 record or something like that…

Would a road win against a team like Va. Tech really offset the two losses we had against Ole Miss and Maryland in the committee’s eyes? I really don’t think it will.

Again, the preceding was a hypothetical situation.[/quote]

PSU has a lot of work to do before they are even being considered by the committee. Maybe a VT win vs won’t look great, but a loss would sure look bad. the OOC SOS will be OK - if the NCAA is a real possibility PSU needs to win out in the OOC and go 9-9 and record some large upsets in conference.

A road win at a BCS conference school like Va Tech is big. Va Tech will be better than .500 when the season ends Aside from their loss tonight, their other 3 losses came against good teams. Although Virginia might turn out to be better than expected. Virginia Tech will have a week to prepare for our game. We better be ready. No way will Seth Greenberg accept dropping below .500. It makes me a bit more nervous about our game now.

[quote=“BleedPSU, post:1, topic:1604”]The following is hypothetical situation. I do not believe it will happen, but I’m just throwing this out there to the RPI pundits.

IF we somehow manage to win this game, is this even something we can hang our hat on come selection Sunday? I know we had mentioned that PSU needed to win one of the 3 games against Big Six competition in our non-con slate. At this point, Va Tech does not look like they are shaping up to be the team we thought they were. They’ve lost two in a row on their home court and are sitting at .500. Say Va Tech manages a 16-15 record or something like that…

Would a road win against a team like Va. Tech really offset the two losses we had against Ole Miss and Maryland in the committee’s eyes? I really don’t think it will.

Again, the preceding was a hypothetical situation.[/quote]

Yes it would (unless Va Tech absolutely tanks and I wouldn’t expect that to happen). The expectation would be that we’d go 1-2 against those three. Beat Va Tech and that’s exactly what we would wind up doing.

VT is still a solid team, and I doubt they’d finish the season with anything less than 16-18 wins. Beating them wouldn’t be as impressive if they didn’t get at least 20 wins on the year, but the ACC isn’t all that strong, so they should still do alright. Plus, there’s no way to know what their RPI will be at the end of the season. Even if they don’t have a strong season, they could still end up in the top 50 RPI (they’ll definitely finish in the top 100). A win on the road against a top 100 RPI team is a nice little boost to our resume. A road win against a top 50 RPI team would obviously be a lot more impressive. But unless they completely tank this year, it should still end up being our best OOC win, hence why we really need to take that game. The only way we could take a loss to VT and still have some kind of shot of getting into the tourney would be if a couple of the “lesser” teams that we’ve beaten so far manage to win their conference championships and get into the tournament themselves.

Or if we won 10 games in conference… or 11.

Not saying it’s going to happen, but we have a lot of good teams left on the schedule - I think people are getting a bit too caught up on OOC vs conference play. Plenty of opportunities to prove ourselves still, Va Tech is a must-win if you’re going to assume we can’t get more than 8 or 9 wins in conference. But if you’re willing to assume we can get 8 or 9 wins in conference, it’s not a huge stretch to say we could somehow squeeze out 10 or maybe 11. Don’t really want to get into the specifics of who we’d beat to do so and all that, I’m just saying… yes, this game is a must-win kind of… but there’s a lot of big games left on the schedule.

If we deserve to dance this year, we will have earned it one way or another.

[quote="Spades88, post:5, topic:1604"]VT is still a solid team, and I doubt they'd finish the season with anything less than 16-18 wins. Beating them wouldn't be as impressive if they didn't get at least 20 wins on the year, but the ACC isn't all that strong, so they should still do alright. Plus, there's no way to know what their RPI will be at the end of the season. Even if they don't have a strong season, they could still end up in the top 50 RPI (they'll definitely finish in the top 100). A win on the road against a top 100 RPI team is a nice little boost to our resume. A road win against a top 50 RPI team would obviously be a lot more impressive. But unless they completely tank this year, it should still end up being our best OOC win, hence why we really need to take that game. The only way we could take a loss to VT and still have some kind of shot of getting into the tourney would be if a couple of the "lesser" teams that we've beaten so far manage to win their conference championships and get into the tournament themselves.[/quote]

Or if we won 10 games in conference… or 11.

Not saying it’s going to happen, but we have a lot of good teams left on the schedule - I think people are getting a bit too caught up on OOC vs conference play. Plenty of opportunities to prove ourselves still, Va Tech is a must-win if you’re going to assume we can’t get more than 8 or 9 wins in conference. But if you’re willing to assume we can get 8 or 9 wins in conference, it’s not a huge stretch to say we could somehow squeeze out 10 or maybe 11. Don’t really want to get into the specifics of who we’d beat to do so and all that, I’m just saying… yes, this game is a must-win kind of… but there’s a lot of big games left on the schedule.

If we deserve to dance this year, we will have earned it one way or another.

Yes, but 10-8 two years ago lost out to 2 teams, Mich and Minny who were 9-9, and PSU split with them. And Minny lost their last 6 conference games, including the last at home vs. Mich(a win by Minny and an 8-10 Michigan team might have been enough for PSU to squeak in). And we beat the Illini twice. Didn’t seem to matter. They were both 9-9. Minny beat Louisville, and that made the difference. Mich may have beaten UCLA and Duke that year(at least one of them was that year). It seems a lot easier to beat VTech and go 9-9 then lose to VTech and go 11-7.

We need to win period. Ed doesn’t schedule in such a way that our OOC would make up for a mediocre performance in BT play (i.e. Michigan 2 years ago). Our only hope is to make some noise in conference play AND win out through the rest of OOC games. I’d expect us to have to go 10-8 to be on the bubble again and if we do that we could sneak in because the conference is tougher than it was 2 years ago.

If we win out in our non-conference, we will be a lock at 10-8 (and close to one at 9-9); it would not be a “sneak in”. Our non-conference looks to be far, far better than it was two years ago, so there’s no question of us getting a bid at 10-8.

We need to win period. Ed doesn't schedule in such a way that our OOC would make up for a mediocre performance in BT play (i.e. Michigan 2 years ago). Our only hope is to make some noise in conference play AND win out through the rest of OOC games. I'd expect us to have to go 10-8 to be on the bubble again and if we do that we could sneak in because the conference is tougher than it was 2 years ago.

If we win out in our non-conference, we will be a lock at 10-8 (and close to one at 9-9); it would not be a “sneak in”. Our non-conference looks to be far, far better than it was two years ago, so there’s no question of us getting a bid at 10-8.

We wont be either so why continue to talk about this? :wink: 3 wins to talking NCAA tourney ? I hope we can talk about this in a month or two but come on lets get real

[quote=“Craftsy21, post:6, topic:1604”]If you’re willing to assume we can get 8 or 9 wins in conference, it’s not a huge stretch to say we could somehow squeeze out 10 or maybe 11. Don’t really want to get into the specifics of who we’d beat to do so and all that, I’m just saying… yes, this game is a must-win kind of… but there’s a lot of big games left on the schedule.

If we deserve to dance this year, we will have earned it one way or another.[/quote]

Did you pay attention to anything that happened in 2008-09?
Three meaningful games on the non-con schedule. This team has lost two of them. And you’re saying this only a "must-win, kind of."
Let’s make the Bob Beamon leap that what you say is true and this team is capable of winning 9 or 10 league games. Now, what do you think is likely to happen again with zero quality non-con wins?

If that were to happen one big difference would be our strength of schedule.

One other thing to add is that Joe Lunardi’s comments from earlier in the season indicated we would have to win 2 of our games against MD, Fairfield, Ole Miss, Va Tech AND have a winning conference record to get into the tournament. I had forgotten he said that until now. That guy always knows his stuff so this game on Sunday just got bigger in my mind.

[quote="Craftsy21, post:6, topic:1604"]If you're willing to assume we can get 8 or 9 wins in conference, it's not a huge stretch to say we could somehow squeeze out 10 or maybe 11. Don't really want to get into the specifics of who we'd beat to do so and all that, I'm just saying... yes, this game is a must-win kind of... but there's a lot of big games left on the schedule.

If we deserve to dance this year, we will have earned it one way or another.[/quote]

Did you pay attention to anything that happened in 2008-09?
Three meaningful games on the non-con schedule. This team has lost two of them. And you’re saying this only a "must-win, kind of."
Let’s make the Bob Beamon leap that what you say is true and this team is capable of winning 9 or 10 league games. Now, what do you think is likely to happen again with zero quality non-con wins?

Think you missed my point… in fact, I know you did.

As I said, if we were to lose to VaTech and be in the 8-9 win range during conference play, we are probably in a bad situation without a good OOC win. But my point was that we have so many good teams in the big10, we would have a good handful of marquee wins in there one way or another should we win any extra game to get us to say 10 wins in the league. We would probably have to win at least 4 games against teams that are much better looking on our resume than VaTech, including some road games at some point.

The league wasn’t nearly as good as it looks like it could be this year - so if we’re all going to make this assumption that we can win 9 games in the league, if we need 9+ @VaTech to dance, we might be just as well off with 10 conference wins minus VaTech. Not suggesting anything revolutionary here - just basic addition really… say, maybe we pick off OSU at home at the end of the season to give us our 10th league victory, I think that could be just as strong as beating VaTech on the road this week for our resume. I might even trade that if I somehow had the choice - a late season victory against a potential big10 champ contender for our 10th big ten win vs an OOC road game against a who knows Vatech squad in December?

Again - we’re speaking entirely in the “what if” on all of these things, and I really hope they take care of VaTech somehow… but winning or losing to them isn’t going to make or break us on the dance this year given what we will have to run through in the big10 this season. I’m much more concerned about where we will find 9 league wins this year than if we can win at VaTech.

edit: still not reading as clearly as it should - but basically the point is that there are about 7-8 road games on our Big10 schedule this year that are the same caliber of opponents at VaTech where we can get one back should we lose Sunday. You’re all too caught up on what our OOC looks like when we have some monsters on our big10 schedule that will give us some nice looking wins should we actually reach the 9 or 10 win mark in the conference. there’s not much chance a 10 win team in the big 10 could be left out of the dance this year with 68 teams getting in and some weak major conferences around the country.

We would not have a bad loss on the schedule unless we lost to Iowa, Mt. St. Marys, or Maine… and we’d have at least 5-6 very strong wins, plus a 10 win mark in the best conference in the country. That dances, period. Taking care of the conference is much more important than taking care of VaTech.

I didn’t miss your point. Your point is totally erroneous.

The committee needs to see performance in the non-con schedule. Not just effort. Wins. Preferably road wins. That’s what impresses the committee. It’s what Penn State was sorely lacking in '08-09. A league win over a commensurate team does NOT equal one over a non-con opponent in this situation. I’m not making this up. I went to the seminar in Indianapolis where we were taught by Greg Shaheen and Dave Worlock, the guys who teach the committee what to do every year.

So, no, 10 wins in the league is NOT as good as nine in the league and a reasonably impressive OOC win, especially one on the road. The VaTech game isn’t “must-win kinda.” It’s absolutely essential to maintain any realistic hope because it’s the last chance at a non-con scalp. That’s assuming the Hokies perform fairly well in the ACC.

This is the same thing Ed couldn’t understand after they won 10 in the league in '09. I thought we explained all this ad nauseum two years ago.

[quote=“djones, post:15, topic:1604”]I didn’t miss your point. Your point is totally erroneous.

The committee needs to see performance in the non-con schedule. Not just effort. Wins. Preferably road wins. That’s what impresses the committee. It’s what Penn State was sorely lacking in '08-09. A league win over a commensurate team does NOT equal one over a non-con opponent in this situation. I’m not making this up. I went to the seminar in Indianapolis where we were taught by Greg Shaheen and Dave Worlock, the guys who teach the committee what to do every year.

So, no, 10 wins in the league is NOT as good as nine in the league and a reasonably impressive OOC win, especially one on the road. The VaTech game isn’t “must-win kinda.” It’s absolutely essential to maintain any realistic hope because it’s the last chance at a non-con scalp. That’s assuming the Hokies perform fairly well in the ACC.

This is the same thing Ed couldn’t understand after they won 10 in the league in '09. I thought we explained all this ad nauseum two years ago.[/quote]

So you’re saying a win against Iowa in 09 doesn’t get us in? Mmm… doubt that. And we have a much different looking OOC this year so it’s not going to be held against us the same way it was two years ago, not to mention 10 wins this year is stronger than 10 wins two years ago.

All of this adds up in a big way. OOC matters if you’re close… if you have 10 wins in this year’s big 10, you won’t be close. You’ll be in.

Mr. Jones you could probably clear up one question that lingers in my mind. Granted Fairfield could win 20 games this season, but why would Joe Lunardi consider them a good non conference win? They aren’t in a great conference (in my mind at least). I never would have considered that win to be impressive.

You are basically saying that no amount of wins in the big 10 could possibly make up for a lack of good OOC wins and I’m telling you that such a number exists, and is probably not that high considering how strong the league is this year.

You really believe that first statement? I don’t.

[quote=“djones, post:15, topic:1604”]I didn’t miss your point. Your point is totally erroneous.

The committee needs to see performance in the non-con schedule. Not just effort. Wins. Preferably road wins. That’s what impresses the committee.[/quote]

Wait a minute, are you saying that I don’t get credit for asking out the head cheerleader and the homecoming queen in high school? Sure they both shot me down cold, but I did ask. Damn, no wonder I’m still single and pushing 40. Perhaps I should have tried my hand at at some of top shelf drinks across the river.

[quote=“djones, post:15, topic:1604”]I didn’t miss your point. Your point is totally erroneous.

The committee needs to see performance in the non-con schedule. Not just effort. Wins. Preferably road wins. That’s what impresses the committee. It’s what Penn State was sorely lacking in '08-09. A league win over a commensurate team does NOT equal one over a non-con opponent in this situation. I’m not making this up. I went to the seminar in Indianapolis where we were taught by Greg Shaheen and Dave Worlock, the guys who teach the committee what to do every year.

So, no, 10 wins in the league is NOT as good as nine in the league and a reasonably impressive OOC win, especially one on the road. The VaTech game isn’t “must-win kinda.” It’s absolutely essential to maintain any realistic hope because it’s the last chance at a non-con scalp. That’s assuming the Hokies perform fairly well in the ACC.

This is the same thing Ed couldn’t understand after they won 10 in the league in '09. I thought we explained all this ad nauseum two years ago.[/quote]

I disagree, but only slightly. I don’t think that this year is exactly the same as '08-'09. The Big Ten is much deeper, and Ed’s OOC schedule is also better than that year’s was. If he avoids bad OOC losses, a 10-11 win Big Ten season might make the RPI good enough that PSU escapes that level of scrutiny over the OOC (i.e. 30 or lower).

I also think this is a moot point, because I don’t think PSU is likely to come up 10-11 Big Ten wins this year - barring some major luck.