PennStateHoops.com Discussion Forum

2019-20 Pre-Season Predictions - Penn State and the Big 10

Updated with S&S, Lindy’s, Athlon:

  T-Rank Jon Rothstein SI Carino (RU beat) Buckeyes Wire BT Powerhouse Eamonn Brennan Street and Smith Athlon Lindy’s
  Numbers Eyeballs Eyeballs Eyeballs Eyeballs Eyeballs Eyeballs Eyeballs Eyeballs Eyeballs
1 MSU MSU MSU MSU MSU MSU MSU MSU MSU MSU
2 MD MD MD MD UM MD MD MD MD MD
3 PU PU OSU PU OSU OSU PU PU OSU OSU
4 UI OSU PU OSU MD PU OSU IA PU PU
5 OSU PSU UM UW UI UI UM UW UI UM
6 PSU UW UI UM PU UM UI OSU UM UI
7 UW UI UW IA IA PSU UW UM IA UW
8 UM IA PSU UI PSU IU IA PSU UW PSU
9 IA UM IU RU IU IA IU UI IU IA
10 RU IU IA IU UW UN PSU MN PSU IU
11 IU RU MN PSU RU UW MN IU RU MN
12 MN UN RU UN NW MN RU RU MN RU
13 UN MN UN MN MN RU UN UN NW UN
14 NW NW NW NW UN NW NW NW UN NW
Consensus AVG
1 MSU 1.0
2 MD 2.3
3 PU 3.7
3 OSU 3.7
5 UI 5.9
6 UM 6.1
7 UW 8.0
8 PSU 8.1
9 IA 8.4
10 IU 9.4
11 RU 11.1
12 MN 12.1
13 UN 12.4
14 NW 13.7

Would be nice to go undefeated against the bottom 4 and that would give us 7 wins. Realistically we probably lose 1 or 2. Which probably means we need 4 or 5 wins against the rest with an decent non con to make the tourney.

The other thing that would be nice is splitting the first 2 December games against consensus 2 & 3.

Ask Nebraska if beating up on the bottom half of the league results in a tourney bid. They may have a few words of wisdom.

Sweeping the bottom 4 teams is better than losing to them, but we have to beat some big boys if we want to make the big dance.

Acknowledged:

If half of your wins are against the bottom tier, you are going to need some wins against the top tier, not just against “the rest”. Sweep of the bottom tier and 4-5 wins against #s 4-10 probably will not equal a bid… unless maybe if we win @ GT and knock of Cuse in the OOC, IMO

Re read my original post and you might realize we’re both saying the exact same thing :face_with_hand_over_mouth::flushed:

With practice starting soon (Thursday for Penn State? - I’m not sure), thought I would move these to a new thread.

KenPom ususally releases his pre-season stuff at the same time as the first AP pre-season poll, usually in late October.

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Especially when it comes to Penn State Basketball haha.

Background:

Brendan Quinn, The Athletic $$$$

10. Penn State
The Nittany Lions have finished inside the top 10 of the Big Ten once in Pat Chambers’ eight-year tenure. Yes, Lamar Stevens is one of the best players in the Big Ten. And yes, Mike Watkins has as much potential as anyone out there. And yes, there’s a lot to like about Myles Dread. But any bet on Penn State to land anywhere other than here is a fool’s errand. (Trust me, I’ve picked PSU to debunk history year after year and been proven a fool.)

Where the Nittany Lions finished in the poll: 9
High position: 6
Low position: 13

PROPS FOR THE LEDE:

It’s long been my opinion that the best day of football season is when basketball practice begins. Yes, yes, the mongrels will tell you that college football is the lifeline to which all tributaries of American fandom lead. They know not of what they speak, though. That amount of barbecue and White Claw will make anyone a moron.

What’s late September really for?

Obviously, preseason basketball chatter.

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I don’t blame Brenden there. I’m at the point where I’ll believe it when I see it.

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Press release:

On Wednesday, Oct. 2, BTN will broadcast live from Rosemont for Big Ten Men’s Basketball Media Day. BTN Live: Men’s Basketball Media Day Coaches Press Conferences begins at 9 a.m. ET, with Big Ten Commissioner Jim Delany up first at the podium and Rick Pizzo anchoring in studio until noon ET.

Following the press conferences, Dave Revsine and Stephen Bardo will host BTN Live: Men’s Basketball Media Day show from noon ET to 3 p.m. ET with additional interviews and analysis. Coaches and students from each of the 14 schools will visit the set to discuss the upcoming season, in addition to an appearance by Commissioner Delany.

2019 Big Ten Men’s Basketball Media Day coverage can also be streamed via tablet or mobile device via the FOX Sports app.

Press Conference Schedule (All times ET)

Big Ten Commissioner Jim Delany 9:00 a.m.
Wisconsin Head Coach Greg Gard 9:20 a.m.
Minnesota Head Coach Richard Pitino 9:30 a.m.
Nebraska Head Coach Fred Hoiberg 9:40 a.m.
Rutgers Head Coach Steve Pikiell 9:50 a.m.
Penn State Head Coach Patrick Chambers 10:00 a.m.
Maryland Head Coach Mark Turgeon 10:10 a.m.
Michigan State Head Coach Tom Izzo 10:20 a.m.
Iowa Head Coach Fran McCaffery 10:30 a.m.
Ohio State Head Coach Chris Holtmann 10:40 a.m.
Michigan Head Coach Juwan Howard 10:50 a.m.
Purdue Head Coach Matt Painter 11:00 a.m.
Illinois Head Coach Brad Underwood 11:10 a.m.
Northwestern Head Coach Chris Collins 11:20 a.m.
Indiana Head Coach Archie Miller 11:30 a.m.

Details: 2019 Men's Basketball Media Day #B1GMediaDay - Big Ten Conference

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The Athletic’s poll numbers are available.

I added them to the table I was maintaining, above, which is now too large to share.

So here is a new summary:

  AVERAGE Ordinal position Highest Lowest
Michigan State 1.0 1 1 (34 ballots) 2 (David Jones)
Maryland 2.4 2 1 (David Jones) 4 (Four pickers)
Ohio State 3.2 3 2 (Eight pickers) 6 (Street & Smith)
Purdue 4.1 4 2 (Three pickers) 9 (Graham Couch)
Illinois 6.0 5 2 (Graham Couch) 9 (Five pickers)
Michigan 6.2 6 2 (Buckeyes Wire) 9 (Jon Rothstein)
Wisconsin 6.8 7 4 (Three pickers) 11 (Buckeyes Wire)
Iowa 8.4 8 4 (Two ballots) 12 (Mark Emmert*)
Penn State 8.5 9 5 (Jon Rothstein) 13 (Jeff Potyrkus)
Indiana 9.4 10 7 (Five ballots) 12 (Graham Couch)
Minnesota 11.2 11 7 (Brian Neubert) 13 (Six ballots)
Rutgers 11.3 12 9 (Three ballots) 14 (Mark Emmert)
Nebraska 12.8 13 10 (Two ballots) 14 (Six ballots)
Northwestern 13.8 14 12 (Buckeyes Wire) 14 (27 ballots)
Penn State Predicted Finish  
T-Rank 6
KenPom
Jon Rothstein - CBS 5
SI 9
Buckeyes Wire 8
BT Powerhouse 7
Street and Smith 8
Athlon 10
Lindy’s 8
Don Markus - Baltimore Sun 10
Emily Giambalvo - Washington Post 7
Alex Bozich - Inside the Hall 10
Zach Osterman - Indianapolis Star 10
Jerry Carino - Asbury Park Press 8
Joshua Newman - Asbury Park Press 7
David Jones - The Harrisburg Patriot-News 12
Audrey Snyder - The Athletic 8
Brendan Quinn - The Athletic 10
Dylan Burkhardt - UMHoops 11
Bill Landis - The Athletic 10
Adam Jardy - The Columbus Dispatch 8
Graham Couch - Lansing State Journal 7
Matt Charboneau - Detroit News 9
Marcus Fuller - Minneapolis Star-Tribune 9
Chad Leistikow - The Des Moines Register 11
Jim Polzin - Wisconsin State Journal 9
Scott Richey - Champaign News-Gazette 10
Chris Basnett - Lincoln Journal Star 8
Dustin Dopirak - The Athletic 11
Jeremy Werner - 247Sports 11
Brian Neubert - Rivals 11
Teddy Greenstein - The Chicago Tribune 7
Mark Emmert - The Des Moines Register 8
Shannon Ryan - Chicago Tribune 7
Christopher Heady - Omaha World-Herald 6
Jeff Potrykus - Milwaukee Journal Sentinel 13
Ryan James - 247Sports 8


* Mark Emmert of the Des Moines Register is no relation to you-know-who

More

TYPICAL NORLANDER SMEAR CAMPAIGN

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Incorporated the CBS picks.

  AVERAGE Ordinal
Michigan State 1.0 1
Maryland 2.5 2
Ohio State 3.3 3
Purdue 3.8 4
Michigan 6.1 5
Illinois 6.2 6
Wisconsin 6.7 7
Iowa 8.7 8
Penn State 8.8 9
Indiana 9.4 10
Minnesota 10.8 11
Rutgers 11.6 12
Nebraska 12.7 13
Northwestern 13.7 14
PSU predicted finish Total votes
5 1
6 4
7 6
8 9
9 4
10 8
11 5
12 2
13 1

image

Scorecard

  Penn State Predicted Finish
Jon Rothstein - CBS 5
T-Rank 6
Christopher Heady - Omaha World-Herald 6
Jerry Palm - CBS 6
Kyle Boone - CBS 6
BT Powerhouse 7
Emily Giambalvo - Washington Post 7
Joshua Newman - Asbury Park Press 7
Graham Couch - Lansing State Journal 7
Teddy Greenstein - The Chicago Tribune 7
Shannon Ryan - Chicago Tribune 7
Buckeyes Wire 8
Street and Smith 8
Lindy’s 8
Jerry Carino - Asbury Park Press 8
Audrey Snyder - The Athletic 8
Adam Jardy - The Columbus Dispatch 8
Chris Basnett - Lincoln Journal Star 8
Mark Emmert - The Des Moines Register 8
Ryan James - 247Sports 8
SI 9
Matt Charboneau - Detroit News 9
Marcus Fuller - Minneapolis Star-Tribune 9
Jim Polzin - Wisconsin State Journal 9
Athlon 10
Don Markus - Baltimore Sun 10
Alex Bozich - Inside the Hall 10
Zach Osterman - Indianapolis Star 10
Brendan Quinn - The Athletic 10
Bill Landis - The Athletic 10
Scott Richey - Champaign News-Gazette 10
Gary Parrish - CBS 10
Dylan Burkhardt - UMHoops 11
Chad Leistikow - The Des Moines Register 11
Dustin Dopirak - The Athletic 11
Jeremy Werner - 247Sports 11
Brian Neubert - Rivals 11
David Jones - The Harrisburg Patriot-News 12
Matt Norlander - CBS 12
Jeff Potrykus - Milwaukee Journal Sentinel 13

The entire spreadsheet is viewable here.

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Think I’m gonna stop following this thread (but thanks for the work @tjb!) It’s just depressing me haha. But I know after all my years of watching Penn State Basketball is that we (and the media) have no idea what’s going to happen!

It’s not so bad!

One reason I started collecting them was I had no doubt there would be a gap between T-Rank and what the pundits would say (mostly due to the surprising T-Rank, not the pundits).

It’s been fun to look at the whole thing, though. Basically you get past the presumed first division (MSU, MD, PUR, OSU) and it’s a smorgasbord.

AVG All High / Low Range STD DEV
1 Michigan State 1.00 1 / 2 1 0.158
2 Maryland 2.40 1 / 4 3 0.784
3 Ohio State 3.21 2 / 6 4 0.981
4 Purdue 3.84 2 / 9 7 1.224
5 Michigan 6.04 2 / 11 9 1.655
6 Illinois 6.16 2 / 9 7 1.577
7 Wisconsin 6.61 4 / 11 7 1.502
8 Iowa 8.45 4 / 12 8 1.819
9 Penn State 8.60 5 / 13 8 1.928
10 Indiana 9.16 7 / 12 6 1.480
11 Minnesota 10.47 7 / 13 6 1.534
12 Rutgers 11.16 9 / 14 5 1.196
13 Nebraska 12.33 6 / 14 8 1.439
14 Northwestern 13.10 12 / 14 2 0.572

Michigan has a wider range of predicted finishes - anywhere from 2 to 11 - but Penn State has the most volatility, a standard deviation of 1.928.