2009-10 NCAA Basketball Bubble Watch Thread (Updated every 4 days)


#1

Alright, I’m sure we all remember there were plenty of bubble threads last year due to the nature of PSU’s season. Obviously, PSU won’t be in the mix this year unless they win the B10T. I’m just doing this for fun, for discussion, and because Seton Hall is in the bubble mix. Here it goes:

1 Bid Leagues (18) - assuming the current conference leader wins:
american east - Maine / Stony Brook
atlantic sun - Campbell
big sky - Weber St / N. Colorado
big south - Coastal Carolina
big west - Pacific
Horizon league (if Butler wins) - Butler
ivy league - Cornell
maac (if Siena wins) - Siena
mac - C. Michigan
meac - Morgan State
northeast - Quinnipiac / Robert Morris
ovc - Murray St
patriot - Lehigh / Lafayette
southern - W. Carolina / Charleston
southland - Texas A&M CC
SAC - Tx Southern
summit - Oakland
sunbelt - Arkansas St.

It doesn’t really matter who wins all of these leagues besides the Horizon and the MAAC. It all depends on how these potential at larges do besides their loss in the conference tournament. At most, there are 18 bids here. 2 of these teams would play in the play in game, so essentially these teams take up 17 bids from the 64 bracket. So already we are down to 47 spots.

Now lets factor out the rest of the conference champions (assuming an already at large team wins the BE, B10, etc).

(13)
A10 - Temple
ACC - (tough to tell since 2 bubble teams sit atop of it, lets assume Duke wins) - Duke
B12 - Kansas
BE - Nova
B10 - MSU
CAA - Old Dominion
C-USA - UAB
MVC - Northern Iowa
MWC - BYU
P10 - CAL
SEC - Kentucky
WCC - Gonzaga
WAC - Another tough conference to tell right now. LTech sit in first, but I don’t think they would grab an at large. Utah State is in 2nd, and is on the bubble. Lets assume that Utah State wins.

So assuming all those teams win their conference (besides the WAC) that is another 13 bids gone. We are down to 34 at large spots. I will divide the remaining teams into pools of categories such as “Locks”, “Locks unless a collapse”, etc. The number next to each team is just a marker for each NCAA slot, not a seed.

Locks:
1- Syracuse
2- Texas
3- Gtown
4- KState
5- WVU
6- Purdue
7- Tennessee
8- Wisconsin
9- Pitt
10- Wake Forest
11- Vandy
12- Georgia Tech
13- Ohio State

Now we start to venture into the “safe team” region:
14- New Mexico
15- Clemson
16- Mississippi
17- UConn
18- Baylor
19- Florida State
20- Missouri

The watch your back region:
21- UNLV
22- Xavier
23- Texas A&M
24- Mississippi St
25- St Marys
26- Oklahoma St

Better side of the bubble:
27- Rhode Island
28- Dayton
29- Maryland
30- UNC
31- Louisville
32- Cincy
33- VT
34- SHU

Outside looking in:
florida
william & mary
Richmond
Northwestern
minnesota
az state
utah st
wichita st
marshall
washington
wash st
miami
virginia
illinois
memphis
vcu
Charlotte
Texas Tech
Tulsa
marquette
st johns
notre dame
arizona

To be honest, from #27 and up, I just put some teams on the bubble down. I haven’t compared them for hours or anything, because its a waste of time right now. All the teams “on the outside” are a compilation of teams that still have hopes and will be subject to elimination or promotions in the coming weeks.

Remember, USC cannot participate in any post season tournament this year. Hopefully they win the P10 :wink:

I’ll post bubble games in this thread daily and update positioning every 2 days based on the results. Feel free to correct my math, update me on teams, did I forget any teams on the list? Do I have a crappy 1-16 team on the bubble by accident? Let me know!

Sources:
http://www.collegehoopsnet.com/blog/marchmadness/
http://bracketproject.50webs.com/matrix.htm
http://kenpom.com/rate.php
http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm


#2

Tonight’s bubble games:

Rhode Island vs Dayton - The winner is in pretty good shape, where the loser is sitting squarely on the bubble.
Miami vs Maryland
Tulsa vs UAB - UAB is relatively safe, whereas Tulsa needs some help.
UNC @ NCSt - UNC is NOT safe. They can’t lose this game.
NW @ Minny - Both big bubble teams. A must win for both.

Washington who needs a lot of help plays at home against Seattle.
Marquette is playing Rutgers.


#3

Interesting year - The Pac-10 is atrocious, could very well be a 1-bid league this year.

The multi-bid leagues this year to me:

SEC - probably 4-5 bids.
Big 10 - I’m guessing 7 teams.
Big XII - A great conference, but I think just 5-6 will make it.
ACC - another fantastic conference, I think 8 get in.
Big East - Probably 8 teams as well.
MWC - 2-3 teams, for sure.
A-10 - 2 unless Xavier or Temple truly collapse, Dayton and RI could be spoilers or still sneak in i guess at large.
CUSA - Probably 2, but maybe just 1.

What’s also interesting to me is that there are very few spoiler type mid-major teams out there to steal at-large bids should they falter in their conference tourneys - Butler and Gonzaga are about it right now, and neither is a sure thing to get in at this point anyways should they struggle any in conference play. St. Mary’s has an extremely high pomeroy rating, but they’ve really beaten nobody very good outside of Utah State (if you call them good). They could make the WCC a two-bid league I suppose, but would need to beast-mode the rest of the year.

Northern Iowa is the only other outside shot at it, but I’d say they’redone in terms of at-large chances if they were to lose even 2 more games in conference.


#4

Thanks for the input Craftsy.

Here are a list of possible at large mid major teams:
BYU
Gonzaga
Butler
New Mexico
UAB
UNLV
UNI
Rhode Island
Old Dom
St Marys
----Cutoff—
Dayton
Richmond
Siena
William & Mary
Charlotte
San Diego St
VCU
Wichita St
Marshall

In my opinion.

The Big East has 6 locks, 3 realistic bubble teams (Cincy, Louisville, SHU), and 3 teams competing for 1 last bubble team position (if that makes sense): Marquette, ND, and St Johns. I just don’t there can be possibly 5 or 6 bubble teams from the BE due to teams playing each other. SHU gets an advantage over Cincy and Louisville if it comes down to these 3 teams come Selection Sunday since they beat both teams.


#5

Hey, if we go 11-7 in league we are back on the bubble. Hey it could happen we lost 7 straight so we are a streaky team. Plus like I said we can play with anybody.


#6

+1 ;D


#7

Two comments. The Great West doesn’t get a bid, and the Ivy will be a 1 bid league since Cornell would pretty much have to win the regular season to be in the conversation for an at-large bid (remember that they don’t have a tourney).


#8

Love the devils advocacy. Lets examine PSU’s “dance card”:
Record: 8-11(0-7)
RPI: 221
SOS:165
Quality wins: @93 Virginia
Bad losses: 253 Tulane, 174 NC-Wilmington, 113 Michigan (home), 212 Indiana (home), @168 Iowa

Penn State’s status: Bringing their grandmother to the dance.

Thanks for that frats! I forgot the Ivy didn’t have a tournament. I’ll edit that!


#9

[quote=“Craftsy21, post:3, topic:740”]The multi-bid leagues this year to me:

Big 10 - I’m guessing 7 teams.[/quote]

I think you’ll be pretty far off here unfortunately. I think the over/under today would be 4.5. I see no way that we get more than 5.


#10
[quote="Craftsy21, post:3, topic:740"]The multi-bid leagues this year to me:

Big 10 - I’m guessing 7 teams.[/quote]

I think you’ll be pretty far off here unfortunately. I think the over/under today would be 4.5. I see no way that we get more than 5.


Agree.

B10 has 4 locks (MSU, Purdue, OSU and Wisconsin), 3 bubble teams NW, Minnesota and Illinois (in that order), and one team with a huge hill to climb if they want to be in the discussion on Selection Sunday (Michigan). 4.5 is a good number Frats.


#11

Last year I found RPIFORECAST to be spot on:

Conf champs in order of strength:

BE - Syracuse
B12 - Kansas
ACC - Duke
SEC - Kentucky
B10 - Wisconsin
P10 - California
MWC - Brigham Young
MVC - Northern Iowa
A10 - Xavier
HOR - Butler
COL - Old Dominion
WCC - St Mary’s
MAAC - Siena
WAC - Utah St
CUSA - Memphis
IVY - Cornell
OVC - Murray St
MAC - Kent St
SUM - Oakland 14 seed
BSKY - Weber St 14 seed
BSTH - Coastal Carolina 14 seed
STHLAND - Sam Houston 14 seed
BWEST - Pacific 15 seed
SC - Wofford 15 seed
SunBelt - Western Kentucky 15 seed
MEAC - Morgan St 15 seed
ASUN - East Tennessee St 16 seed
AEAST - Vermont 16 seed
NE - Quinnipiac 16 seed
Patriot - Army Play-in Game
SWAC - Arkansas Pine Bluff Play-in Game

Safe:

  1. Villanova
  2. West Virginia
  3. Texas
  4. Georgetown
  5. Kansas State
  6. Temple
  7. Tennessee
    8 ) Pittsburgh
  8. Michigan State
  9. Vanderbilt
  10. Purdue
  11. Baylor
  12. Missouri
  13. Wake Forest
  14. Connecticut

Safe except for implosion:

  1. Gonzaga
  2. New Mexico
  3. Clemson
  4. Mississippi
  5. Nevada Las Vegas
  6. Georgia Tech
  7. UAB
  8. Maryland
  9. Rhode Island
  10. Texas A & M

Fringe:

  1. Louisville
  2. Dayton
  3. Ohio State
  4. Mississippi State
  5. Florida State

Last 4 In:

  1. Oklahoma State
  2. Wichita State
  3. Marquette
  4. Florida

First 4 Out:

  1. Arizona State
  2. Southern Cal
  3. Minnesota
  4. Louisiana Tech

Next 4 Out:

  1. UTEP
  2. Seton Hall
  3. Cincinnati
  4. Northeastern

Just OUT:

  1. Virginia Commonwealth
  2. Richmond
  3. Tulsa
  4. North Carolina

#12

Rhodie safe except for implosion? I don’t agree with that. Same with Texas A&M and Maryland.

Northeastern? No way…

It also hasn’t been updated in a few days.

Are the NCAA projections based off of RPI forecasting as well? Or are they as if the tournament was to start today?


#13

From what I can gather from the “Dance Card” site (which is what RPIForecast is using), this is based on if today were Selection Sunday.


#14
  1. USC can’t make the tournament
  2. LTech ahead of SHU? Hmmm…
  3. Not sure Northeastern should be that high up
  4. Marquette that high?? They are ranked very low on the Dance Card site, so I don’t see the correlation there

I believe this was updated before some of the recent games though (Wichita losing to Drake, SHU beating Pitt, etc) which can explain some of the inaccuracy I see.


#15

Today’s recap:

Winners:
Maryland - Defiant win over a fellow bubble team
Rhode Island - Ditto, minus the defiant.
UAB - Ditto.
Minnesota - Ditto.
UNC - Should be in the afloat category, but they really needed a win.

Losers:
Tulsa - Haven’t proved they can beat the “big” boys yet.
NW - Crucial loss, especially since Minny is on the bubble with them.
Miami - Lost by a lot. Not good for their chances, probably the biggest loser today.
Michigan - Would have been a huge resume win if UM was to have a chance…

Staying afloat:
Marquette - Beating RU at home is nothing to write home about.
Washington - Destroying Seattle at half.

Others:
UNLV is losing to Air Force at half… I don’t expect that to hold up though. If it does, thats a loss that might bump them down a seed or 3.


#16
[quote="Craftsy21, post:3, topic:740"]The multi-bid leagues this year to me:

Big 10 - I’m guessing 7 teams.[/quote]

I think you’ll be pretty far off here unfortunately. I think the over/under today would be 4.5. I see no way that we get more than 5.


Agree.

B10 has 4 locks (MSU, Purdue, OSU and Wisconsin), 3 bubble teams NW, Minnesota and Illinois (in that order), and one team with a huge hill to climb if they want to be in the discussion on Selection Sunday (Michigan). 4.5 is a good number Frats.

Disagree, but that’s just my opinion. We’re the third best conference, and there’s not a lot of teams in the smaller conferences that should take up spots. They’ve got to fill them somehow, and I think we have some teams that are better on paper than you guys are giving them credit.

I am of course going by the assumption that out of Michigan, Minnesota, Illinois, and Northwestern - 3 of these teams will set themselves apart from the bottom 4 of the conference and make a nice case for themselves getting to about 9 or 10 conference wins. Maybe a large assumption, but I think that’s how it’ll shake down and that’s where I get my 7 teams.


#17

[quote=“Craftsy21, post:16, topic:740”]Disagree, but that’s just my opinion. We’re the third best conference, and there’s not a lot of teams in the smaller conferences that should take up spots. They’ve got to fill them somehow, and I think we have some teams that are better on paper than you guys are giving them credit.

I am of course going by the assumption that out of Michigan, Minnesota, Illinois, and Northwestern - 3 of these teams will set themselves apart from the bottom 4 of the conference and make a nice case for themselves getting to about 9 or 10 conference wins. Maybe a large assumption, but I think that’s how it’ll shake down and that’s where I get my 7 teams.[/quote]

The Big Ten is only 5th right now in RPI, however the top 4 teams have really seperated themselves (all 4 of them are top 5 seeds in Jerry Palm’s current bracket). However, it’s a huge drop down to find a 5th team. The next best RPI right now is Minnesota at 55, then Northwestern at 67, Illinois at 83, and Michigan at 118. I could see one of those teams (probably Minnesota) get back into the mix, however Illinois/Northwestern will probably have to go at least 11-7 to get in. And I see Michigan as pretty much finished at this point.


#18

I tend to think that rpiforecast is basing their picks on today. (or the day it was updated). It is their projection of final rpi as of that date and a big win or loss by any team will affect their picks at the next update. Some of those ranks seem a bit strange, and lord knows they are solely basing things off of mathematics and not the conference bias that will affect the comittee come selection sunday. (tell me that if Northeastern has a higher RPI than Seton Hall that NE will get the invite! And then we can see that bias clearly exists…just ask Arizona last year ;))


#19

[quote=“noobd, post:12, topic:740”]Rhodie safe except for implosion? I don’t agree with that. Same with Texas A&M and Maryland.

Northeastern? No way…

It also hasn’t been updated in a few days.

Are the NCAA projections based off of RPI forecasting as well? Or are they as if the tournament was to start today?[/quote]

And why oh why, are all of our NIT foes from last year (except George Mason and Notre Dame) looking like sure fire tournament teams this year? The two teams that wont make it are locks for the NIT. In the meantime…

Looking at a few teams that were pointed out (and remembering this is updated weekly):
18-11 Overall/8-8 conf/ 38.1 RPI forecast/#1 Conference = Maryland Based on those projections, thats pretty safe
19-10 Overall/10-6 conf/39.0 RPI forecast/#2 Conference = Tx A&M Based on those projections, thats pretty safe
22-7 Overall/10-6 conf/28.8 Forecast/#7 Conference = Rhode Island Thats pretty darned safe
19-10 overall/14-4 conf/55.8 forecast/12th conference = Northeastern Thats outside looking in
24-6overall/12-4 conf/48.1 forecast/ 10th confernce = Louisiana Tech Thats square on the bubble
19-11 overall/10-8 conf/65.0 forecast/#3 conference = Marquette This is Arizona of last year territory (should be out) but probably bubbl


#20

Projections are highly subjective. I don’t like to look at those sort of things, I prefer “if Selection Sunday were today” layouts.